Lesson 8: The relationship between the strike price and the underlying asset - Find your "golden sniping point"

  • Strike Price Basics: The strike price in options trading is likened to target rings in a shooting game, categorized as in-the-money (hit inner ring), at-the-money (on the line), or out-of-the-money (outer ring). Choosing the right strike price balances risk and reward.

  • US Stock Strike Price Mechanics: Tesla's strike prices adjust in $5 intervals for stock prices between $100-$200, widening to $10 above $500. Market makers often cluster orders at integer levels (e.g., $200), creating barriers. A case study shows how $200 call options tripled post-earnings when Tesla surged from $198 to $210.

  • Bitcoin Strike Price Dynamics: Bitcoin options typically use round numbers (e.g., $30,000), though some platforms offer unconventional prices. The 2021 bull market saw demand for "69,000" strike options, but Bitcoin collapsed after hitting that level. Strategies include wide straddles for large funds and asymmetric out-of-the-money plays for small traders.

  • Strike Price Personalities:

    • In-the-money: Stable but expensive (e.g., Tesla $200 Call at $210 stock price).
    • At-the-money: High gamma, fast time decay (e.g., Bitcoin $80,000 Call at current price).
    • Out-of-the-money: High leverage but 85% expire worthless (e.g., Tesla $250 Call at $200 stock price).
  • Selection Strategies:

    • Trending markets: Buy out-of-the-money calls (rising) or deep out-of-the-money puts (falling).
    • Volatile markets: Sell at-the-money straddles or buy butterfly spreads.
    • Event-driven: Pre-event at-the-money straddles; post-event chase out-of-the-money options.
  • Key Insight: Strike price selection balances market sentiment and probability, not just math. The article concludes with a preview on "Time Value Decay" and homework tasks for readers.

Summary

1. Strike Price: The Bull’s-Eye Scale of Options

Imagine you go to an amusement park to play a shooting game, and different numbers of rings on the target correspond to different prizes. The strike price is the ring number mark in the options world :

  • In-the-money : The inner ring that has been hit (Tesla is currently priced at $200, and the subscription price of 180 is in-the-money)

  • At-the-money : The red heart that just hits the line (current price = strike price, like the Bitcoin at-the-money option that jumps around $80,000)

  • Out of value : the outer ring that has not yet been reached (want to buy Tesla with $250? You have to wait for the stock price to soar)

Choosing an exercise price is like choosing a date - too conservative is boring, too radical is likely to be a disappointment, it is best to choose the one that is "within your reach".

2. US stock exercise price: art under the precise scale

Tesla's "5-dollar metaphysics" :

  • When the stock price is between $100 and $200, the exercise price interval is $5 (195/200/205…)

  • After the stock price broke through $500, the interval widened to $10

  • Unspoken rule : Market makers like to pile up orders at integer levels (such as $200) to form a natural barrier

Actual combat case : Before Tesla's financial report in April 2023, the stock price was stuck at $198 and would never reach $200. Smart money ambushed $200 call options in advance. After the financial report, the stock price rushed to $210, and this batch of contracts tripled in one week.

Veteran tips :

  • When the stock price is close to the integer mark, buy the out-of-the-money call (for example, buy 205 Call when the stock price is 198)

  • Avoid the "death middle price" (such as $197.5), as such contracts have poor liquidity and are easily harvested by market makers.

3. Bitcoin strike price: a numbers game in the Wild West

Coin Circle Features :

  • Mainstream exchanges set the exercise price in thousands of yuan (28,000/29,000/30,000…)

  • However, there are always platforms that use weird exercise prices (such as $31,234) to attract metaphysical players.

  • Magic Number Legend : In the 2021 bull market, options with an exercise price of "69,000" were snapped up, and as a result, Bitcoin collapsed instantly after reaching 69,000

Survival rules :

  1. Don’t be held hostage by the psychological barrier (breaking 100,000 ≠ maintaining 100,000)

  2. For large funds, choose a wide straddle type with a range of $5,000 above and below (anti-insertion)

  3. Small funds play "asymmetric out-of-the-money" (such as buying 82,000 Call + 78,000 Put when the current price is 80,000)

4. The “Triple Personality” of the Strike Price

In-the-money options: Steady Uncle

  • Tesla 200 Call (current price 210): Intrinsic value $10, time value $2

  • Suitable for : Conservative investors/hedge funds

  • Disadvantages : Expensive, low leverage, like driving a tank on the road

At-the-money options: extreme sports enthusiasts

  • Bitcoin 80000Call (current price 80000): pure time value + volatility premium

  • Exciting point : Gamma is the largest, small wins big

  • Risk : Time value decays the fastest, like holding an ice cube

Out-of-the-money options: Lottery boy

  • Tesla 250 Call (current price 200): Premium $1.5, need to rise 25% to make money

  • Attractiveness : Starting from 10x leverage, most popular among retail investors

  • The cruel truth : 85% of out-of-the-money options expire at zero

We treat out-of-the-money options like fireworks—occasionally lighting a few for fun, but never filling our warehouses with gunpowder.

5. The “point-and-shoot camera” of strike price selection

Trending market :

  • Strong rise: Buy out-of-the-money 2nd tier call options

  • Plunge channel: Buy deep out-of-the-money puts

Volatile market :

  • Sell at-the-money wide straddle

  • Buy Butterfly Spread (for example, buy 29000Call + sell 30000Call × 2 + buy 31000Call)

Event-driven :

  • Before a major event: Buy at-the-money straddles (buy both ups and downs)

  • After the policy is announced: chasing virtual value and rising prices

Remember what the trader who made his first fortune with options said: "Finding the strike price is not a math problem, but a tightrope walk between market sentiment and probability."

6. Next Issue Preview

Tomorrow we will talk about "Time Value Decay of Options"

After-class tasks :

  1. Find the strike price of Tesla's current stock price ±5% and calculate the increase/decrease required to reach these prices

  2. Observe the distribution of Bitcoin strike prices on Deribit and find the three levels with the largest trading volume

  3. Leave a message to share the most outrageous strike price setting you have ever seen

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Author: 张无忌wepoets

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: 张无忌wepoets. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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