Next week's macro outlook: What will the Fed do next as caution becomes the main theme? Focus on PCE

PANews reported on February 22 that the market has experienced another turbulent week as US President Trump promised to impose more tariffs. The economic optimism that emerged after Trump's election may begin to fade. Despite the shock, gold continued to rise this week and refreshed its historical high to above $2,950. However, there is always such a voice in the market: as the rebound in the second half of the week failed to continue to set a new record high, does this mean that bullish pressure is weakening? After the release of strong US CPI data, the US core PCE price index will become the focus of the market in terms of data next week. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 22:30 on Monday, the U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for February will be released;

At 17:20 on Tuesday, Logan, 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Dallas Fed, will deliver a speech;

At 00:45 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Barr delivered a speech;

At 02:00 on Wednesday, Barkin, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President, will speak on inflation;

At 01:00 on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak on the economic outlook and the housing market;

At 21:30 on Thursday, the revised annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States, the revised GDP price index in the fourth quarter, the monthly rate of durable goods orders in January, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 22;

At 02:15 on Friday, Hammack, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Cleveland Fed, will speak on financial stability;

At 04:15 on Friday, Harker, 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, will speak on the economic outlook;

At 21:30 on Friday, the US PCE data for January and the monthly rate of personal spending for January will be released;

Over the past two months, a strong U.S. economy has provided investors with protection to continue pouring money into U.S. stocks amid tariff threats and the Fed's tightening policy, but Friday's decline in U.S. stocks may mean that this "protection" may be limited. For investors who have recently poured record amounts of money into various risky investments, even the first signs of pressure on the U.S. economic growth outlook are enough to make them sell. Given that most of the Fed officials will speak before the release of PCE data next week, they are not expected to relax their tone easily and continue to emphasize uncertainty and caution.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for market information only and is not investment advice.

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