(26/52) Weekly Market Insights: Multi-dimensional macro risks are rising

  • Macro Risks & Market Uncertainty: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate, with U.S. involvement raising fears of a regional war, driving oil prices higher. Bitcoin dropped 4.34% last week amid these concerns. Key factors to watch include Iran's potential retaliation, U.S. budget bill progress, and reciprocal tariffs resuming on July 9.
  • Fed Policy & Economic Data: The Fed held rates steady, projecting higher inflation and unemployment for 2025. Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, less than expected. Upcoming events include Powell's congressional hearing and PCE inflation data.
  • Middle East Escalation: Israel and Iran exchanged attacks, with U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran’s parliament proposed closing the Strait of Hormuz (critical for 20-30% of global oil trade), pending approval.
  • Crypto Market Developments:
    • Texas established a Bitcoin reserve, and the U.S. Senate passed the stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act).
    • JPMorgan plans a stablecoin (JPMD) on Base; Coinbase seeks SEC approval for tokenized stocks.
    • Vietnam recognized crypto as property with tax exemptions, effective 2026.
    • Bloomberg raised odds of spot crypto ETF approvals to 90% by end-2025.
  • Layer 1/2 & DeFi Updates:
    • Tron to list on Nasdaq via SPAC; Kraken’s L2 Ink launched its token.
    • EigenLayer introduced EigenCloud for off-chain apps; Mantle launched a blockchain-based bank.
    • Ethena enabled 24/7 BUIDL-to-USDtb swaps; Ondo formed a tokenization alliance.
  • Governance & Unlocks:
    • LayerZero’s fee switch vote likely to fail; Optimism unveiled a bicameral governance model.
    • Token unlocks: KMNO (21.8% supply) and OP (1.86%) on June 30; ENA (1.55%) on July 2.
Summary

Hot News

  • Bitcoin fell 4.34% last week, mainly due to the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With the United States involved in the conflict, the market is worried that the war may expand into a regional war, coupled with the surge in oil prices, which has exacerbated economists' macroeconomic concerns. This week, it is expected that this market uncertainty will continue or even intensify, with factors including: the progress of major budget bills, the restoration of reciprocal tariffs, and possible retaliatory actions by Iran.

Macro Outlook

  • The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at the latest FOMC meeting, noting that the labor market remains strong and expecting significant inflation in the coming months amid policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The latest dot plot shows more committee members supporting keeping interest rates unchanged in 2025, but Powell said no one has high confidence in these interest rate paths. The latest economic forecasts show lower real GDP, higher unemployment and higher inflation in 2025, with the median interest rate remaining at 3.9%.

  • The situation in the Middle East continues to escalate. Israel launched air strikes targeting key nuclear infrastructure near Natanz and Tehran. Iran has retaliated with missile attacks on Israel. The United States subsequently raided three Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, using seven B2 bombers. The Iranian parliament immediately approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major transportation route for about 20% to 30% of the world's oil and a third of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG). The proposal needs to be approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council before it can take effect.

  • The Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) is also expected to spark a heated debate in the Senate this week as the chamber plans to recess for a "state work period" from June 30 to July 4, and the White House is pressuring Congress to pass the bill before July 4, Independence Day.

  • Top U.S. bank regulators are reportedly planning to cut the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio ( eSLR ) by up to 1.5%, which could help banks trade more Treasuries.

  • U.S. reciprocal tariffs are expected to go back into effect on July 9. President Trump previously announced that he would send letters to various trading partners setting unilateral tariff rates.

  • U.S. retail sales fell 0.9% in May, less than the market's expectation of a 0.7% decline.

Upcoming economic calendars include:

  • June 24 and 25 (Tuesday and Wednesday) 10:00 p.m.: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional hearing

  • Thursday, June 26, 8:30 p.m.: U.S. durable goods orders for May and final first quarter GDP data

  • June 27 (Friday) 8:30 p.m.: U.S. May PCE price index, personal income and personal spending data

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

  • The Governor of Texas has signed SB21, making Texas the third U.S. state to establish a Bitcoin reserve.

  • The Senate has passed the stable currency bill, the GENIUS Act. The bill now goes to the House of Representatives for consideration. President Trump has publicly supported the bill and urged the House to pass it as soon as possible.

  • JPMorgan Chase applied for the " JPMD " trademark for its digital asset services business. The company plans to launch the JPMD stablecoin on the Base chain for institutional clients.

  • Coinbase said it is seeking SEC approval to offer tokenized stocks on the platform. The company also launched Coinbase Payment , a full-end stablecoin payment solution for e-commerce platforms. Shopify has integrated the system to provide stablecoin payment services to millions of merchants.

  • JD.com plans to apply for stablecoin licenses globally to reduce cross-border payment costs and settlement times.

  • Vietnam has passed the Digital Technology Industry Law , which recognizes the status of crypto assets and implements tax exemptions and a regulatory framework for the industry. The bill is expected to take effect in 2026.

  • Baillie Gifford has launched the first tokenized fund approved by the UK FCA , the "Strategic Bond Feeder Fund", which is built on the Ethereum blockchain.

  • Bloomberg analysts raised the probability of launching multiple spot crypto ETFs by the end of 2025 to 90%, mainly due to increased interaction between the SEC and spot crypto issuers.

Layer 1 and Layer 2 Public Chains

  • Tron announced that the project will be listed on Nasdaq through SPAC company SRM Entertainment . The transaction involves an injection of TRX worth $210 million and $100 million raised by SRM Entertainment to acquire TRX for staking.

  • Kraken's Layer-2 project Ink announced the launch of its native token INK . This token does not have the function of Ink network governance, but is used as a liquidity incentive for projects building protocols on the network.

  • Mantle launches UR , a new bank that operates entirely on the blockchain, offering Swiss IBAN accounts and MasterCard debit card services.

  • EigenLayer launched EigenCloud to help developers create verifiable off-chain applications, services, and AI, while ensuring security through a re-staking mechanism.

Dapps

  • Ethena has partnered with Securitize to support 24-hour BUIDL-to-USDtb exchange services, enabling institutions to efficiently access DeFi. Securitize has also partnered with Crypto.com and Deribit to enable both exchanges to accept BUIDL as collateral .

  • Ondo Finance announced the establishment of a global market alliance (members include Solana, Jupiter, Trust Wallet, 1Inch, etc.) to establish standards for on-chain securities tokenization.

  • Fetch.ai has launched a mobile app for its agent-based large language model ASI:One, now available on iOS and Android.

  • INFINIT launches the " One-click Proxy DeFi " feature, allowing users to create custom tip strategies and execute them with one click.

  • Spark Finance launched the SPK token, with a current FDV of approximately $417 million and a circulating supply of 9%. The protocol has a TVL of approximately $5.7 billion and is dedicated to assisting Sky Protocol in configuring stablecoin reserves in the DeFi ecosystem. SPK is a pure governance token, and the team has cooperated with Symbiotic to carry out the second phase of airdrops.

  • Falcon Finance launched USDf, sUSDf and PT-sUSDf on Euler Frontier , providing leverage position support for liquidity mining users.

  • The Swell team launched a new protocol, Hyperwave , to provide HLP with liquid staking tokens, enabling deeper DeFi integration through the hwHLP token.

  • Fluid launches PAXG/XAUt Smart Collateral Vault, enabling gold holders to earn returns from both trading liquidity and borrowing.

  • After supporting Solana, 1Inch further expanded to the Sonic network.

  • OrbSwap v0-alpha is now live on Arbitrum, a super-liquidity pool with low slippage for thousands of stablecoins.

Governance/Project Updates

  • Injective will hold the Injective Summit on June 26 in New York City.

  • LayerZero is voting on its second “ fee switch referendum ” to decide whether to activate message fees by June 27. Similar to the first vote, this vote is likely to fail again due to difficulty in reaching a quorum.

  • Katana, the new Agglayer blockchain supported by Polygon and GSR, is scheduled to launch the mainnet on June 30. Katana adopts the "chain-owned liquidity" ( COL ) mechanism, and the liquidity owned by the protocol and the fees earned by the sorter will be re-injected into the liquidity pool. It has reached cooperation with well-known protocols such as Sushi Swap and Morpho.

  • Uniswap held its first Foundation Feedback Group ( FFG ) discussion, and the Decentralized Non-profit Association (DUNA) legal structure is expected to be completed in mid-summer 2025. It will soon activate the fee switch for selected v3 liquidity providers on Ethereum, v4 hooks are expected to be launched in June, and the Unichain Validator Network (UVN) is planned to be completed in 2025.

  • Optimism announced that it will enhance decentralized governance through a bicameral governance model. The system consists of token holders, end users, applications, and chains, and launched an "optimistic approval" mechanism designed to simplify the governance process, which is expected to go online on August 1.

  • Synthetix plans to launch a new version of the Synthetix exchange on Ethereum soon.

Token Unlock

  • INIT tokens were unlocked on June 24, accounting for 1.67% of the total supply.

  • SOPH tokens were unlocked on June 28, accounting for 1.25% of the total supply.

  • GRASS tokens were unlocked on June 30, accounting for 1.28% of the total supply.

  • OP tokens were unlocked on June 30, accounting for 1.86% of the total supply.

  • KMNO tokens were unlocked on June 30, accounting for 21.8% of the total supply.

  • SUI tokens were unlocked on July 1, accounting for 1.72% of the total supply.

  • ENA tokens were unlocked on July 2, accounting for 1.55% of the total supply.

  • JTO tokens were unlocked on July 7, accounting for 3.33% of the total supply.

  • IMX tokens were unlocked on July 11, accounting for 1.31% of the total supply.

  • IO tokens were unlocked on July 11th, accounting for 8.05% of the total supply.

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Author: ChainUp Investment

This article represents the views of PANews columnist and does not represent PANews' position or legal liability.

The article and opinions do not constitute investment advice

Image source: ChainUp Investment. Please contact the author for removal if there is infringement.

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