In 2025, the cryptocurrency industry and the global macro environment experienced huge shocks, causing prices of almost all risk assets to come under pressure. StarEx Exchange analysts will help you to clear away the short-term noise and find that a new Bitcoin bull market is gathering strength and is about to come.
At the beginning of the year, BTC and Solana hit record highs as the US political attitude clearly turned to support cryptocurrencies. However, the "buy expectations, sell facts" after Trump's inauguration, coupled with the subsequent macro policy shocks, caused the crypto market to fall into a deep correction.
The new round of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration (especially the tariffs against Mexico, Canada and China after February) has hit consumer confidence, corporate profits and GDP growth expectations, and market concerns about stagflation have rapidly increased. At the same time, the establishment of the Department of U.S. Government Efficiency (DOGE) has brought potential fiscal tightening risks, exacerbating uncertainty. The stock market, high-growth stocks, AI concept assets, and cryptocurrencies have all been affected and have generally fallen.
The combined effects of the memecoin bubble burst, Bybit hacker attack and other negative events have exacerbated the panic. In the first quarter, the median token price fell by more than 50%, and almost all token prices recorded a decline.
However, from a historical perspective, such pullbacks are not uncommon. In the last round of Bitcoin bull market from 2020 to 2022, BTC fell by more than 20% five times, and other altcoins even frequently experienced 40%-50% pullbacks. In a strong bull market, violent fluctuations are the norm, not a sign of reversal.
In fact, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows to $95,000, showing that the market is gradually regaining confidence. Every deep decline has almost always been followed by a strong rebound in history. This time is likely to be no exception.
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that the extremely pessimistic market sentiment is a sign of opportunity, and various sentiment indicators also show that we are at an extremely attractive time: the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index has risen to a 40-year high, exceeding the 9-11 and 2008 financial crises; the cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen into the extreme fear zone, similar to the FTX crash in 2022; the Bitcoin futures financing rate has turned negative, indicating excessive short selling sentiment; the U.S. AAII retail investor sentiment survey showed a pessimistic proportion of more than 60%. Historically, similar situations have only occurred in 1990, 2008 and 2022, followed by a sharp rebound.
These data collectively indicate that the market has already digested a large amount of panic, and extreme pessimism often breeds reversal.
The macro environment is improving: interest rates and liquidity are positive for Bitcoin. Interest rates and liquidity are the lifeline of risk assets. At present, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen from its high point. The Trump administration and Treasury Secretary Bessant have made it clear that they will work hard to lower long-term interest rates and support spending financing, which is conducive to the revaluation of risk assets.
More importantly, the inflection point of global liquidity is coming. Economies such as the United States, Europe, and China are beginning to release liquidity and may be about to enter a new round of quantitative easing cycle. Historical data shows that the main rising phase of Bitcoin is often accompanied by the growth of global liquidity.
The fundamentals of the crypto industry are quietly strengthening
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that despite the price volatility, the fundamentals of the industry are continuing to improve: the White House has established a digital asset working group, revoked suppression policies, and established a national strategic Bitcoin reserve; the blockchain actual economic value (REV) quarterly revenue reached US$1.5 billion, and the annualized revenue of on-chain applications exceeded US$10 billion; stablecoins and on-chain transfer volumes reached new highs, and on-chain user activity continued to rise; innovative fields such as DeFi, DePIN, and on-chain AI are developing rapidly.
This is not an empty concept, but real user growth and revenue growth, which is the core support for the long-term value of cryptocurrency.
From the four-year cycle to the dollar crisis: Bitcoin is facing a historic opportunity. If we look at a broader perspective, we find that Bitcoin experiences a bull market every four years, not just because of the halving, but because of major global macro events: the European debt crisis in 2012; Brexit in 2016; and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
In 2025, the credit crisis of the US dollar system is unfolding. The US fiscal deficit is high, the bond market is turbulent, and the global reserve asset structure is facing a drastic restructuring. At such a historical turning point, Bitcoin, as a non-sovereign, censorship-resistant, decentralized means of value storage, has been recognized and acknowledged by the world as never before.
Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that although the short-term correction is sharp, various indicators from sentiment, liquidity, macro environment to industry fundamentals show that Bitcoin is at the starting point of a new bull market.
Be greedy when others are fearful, and sow the future in chaos. Now is the best time to firmly believe and embrace the BTC bull market.
