The following is the transcript of the podcast "From Tariff War to Stablecoins: Does Trump Treat the Cryptocurrency Circle as a New 'Negotiation Table'?" For audio content, please go to Xiaoyuzhou to listen to "The Basic Law of Cryptocurrency".

US President Trump, the world's most watched "crisis maker", has an eccentric style and is well versed in the art of trading. He has ignited market panic with a tariff war and manipulated global attention in the game between Israel and Iran, but this is just the tip of the iceberg. Under the surface, what kind of business logic does Trump's behavior follow? How does his highly confident and even narcissistic psychological model become a weapon for his strategic emotional manipulation and attention focus? Trump's "purpose-oriented" philosophy has found an excellent testing ground in the field of cryptocurrency, which is naturally full of risks and opportunities. The Trump family's layout of the WLFI project and the sudden shift in its attitude towards stablecoins are by no means accidental. Is it a keen sense of the growth dividend of financial technology, or paving the way for the family's crypto project WLFI? Or is it using the name of stablecoins to consolidate the hegemony of the US dollar?

This podcast combines psychological insights with macro research to deeply analyze Trump's "purpose-oriented" behavior code, revealing how he turns risks into opportunities and quietly lays out a far-reaching chess game of wealth and power in the cryptocurrency world. Understanding Trump may mean understanding the rules of survival in turbulent times.

【Table of contents】

1. Trump’s behavioral code

• "The Philosophy of Bad Endings": Survival Strategies for Ambiguous Endings

• Creating chaos and bargaining chips: Trump's behavior logic

2. Trump’s strategy in the Iran-Israel conflict

• "Feint to the East and Attack in the West": Precision Strike and Confusing the Enemy

• Limited Action and Balance of Interests: A Pragmatic Strategy to Contain Nuclear Threats

3. Trump from a psychological perspective

• Extraversion and narcissistic traits: Walking the line between authenticity and performance

• Combining fixed mental models with flexible strategies

4. Trump and cryptocurrency layout

• The WLFI Project: Cryptocurrency of Political Influence

• Narrative Drive and a New Focus in a Downturn

5. Future market expectations

• Prospects for interest rate cuts: economic weakness and policy game

• The boost of interest rate cuts to the crypto market

6. Stablecoins and Trump’s Crypto Era

• The “double-edged sword” of stablecoins: efficiency improvement and sovereignty conflict

• Market hot spots and opportunities for ordinary investors to participate

7. The dual game of wealth accumulation and power

• There is no end to the wealth accumulation: Trump's wealth and political layout

• "Indecency" within the rules: a unique business logic

【text】

Guest Tie Zhu Ge

X@铁柱哥在CRYPTO｜Humanity Insight & Policy Researcher

Streamer Jade

X@0xJade｜5 years of journalist experience, currently Web3 PR & researcher

1. Trump's behavioral code

Jade: Trump's style of doing things is very unique, controversial, and has the precise calculations of a businessman, which is called TACO (Trump always chickens out). From a psychological perspective, how do you view Trump's behavior pattern as a crisis maker? Is this pattern sustainable, and will he continue to use this pattern in the future?

Tiezhu: I recently posted a post on Twitter that briefly summarized my observations on Trump's behavior patterns. As early as when he first came to power, I made a prediction that many of the policies he implemented had a distinct characteristic - they ended badly . However, the "badly ended" I mentioned is in quotation marks, which means that this is not a failure or incompetence in the traditional sense, but a strategy. I call it the "badly ended philosophy." This is not a negative evaluation, but a neutral definition aimed at analyzing the logic behind his behavior.

Many people think that Trump's "jumping back and forth" and not completing things are manifestations of incompetence or confusion, but I don't think so. This is actually his philosophy of survival, or a long-cultivated investment and trading philosophy. The core is to avoid a failed outcome through vague promises and expectations. Because as long as he does not formally end something, he can claim that "things are moving forward" and evade responsibility. For example, he can always declare that he "won", regardless of the actual result. This method allows him to always be proactive in strategy.

For example, whether it is building a border wall or other policies, he has prevented things from moving towards a clear outcome by delaying or obstructing them. If something is not completed, he can shift the blame to the outside world, saying "someone else blocked me." For example, on the current inflation problem, he puts all the blame on Biden. This behavior is not a lack of ability, but a strategic choice.

Another interesting example is Trump's " two-week philosophy ". He often uses "wait two more weeks" as a political statement, delaying many promises indefinitely. This behavior is, in a way, a brilliant emotional manipulation strategy. Just as in the financial market, stable and unchanging markets are often boring, while markets full of volatility and uncertainty are more attractive. Trump refocuses people's attention by creating chaos and blurring expectations. Since humans are more sensitive to negative information, his strategy can effectively attract public attention.

Trump's "bad ending philosophy" is not only a means of emotional manipulation, but also an important weapon for him to negotiate. His capriciousness and uncertainty are an important part of his negotiation strategy. As he himself admits, this is a negotiating tactic - not letting the opponent know his true intentions and goals, so as to put the opponent in a passive position. For example, in the Sino-US trade negotiations, his attitude was sometimes good and sometimes bad, making it difficult for the opponent to accurately predict his motives. This ambiguity forced the other party to take defensive measures or even make concessions. For Trump, uncertainty is his bargaining chip.

In summary, Trump's "philosophy of bad endings" is not simply a matter of ability, but a carefully designed strategy. This strategy enables him to take the initiative in negotiations and political games by blurring the ending, creating chaos, and manipulating attention. This is not only his philosophy of survival, but also largely affects his policy implementation and political style.

Jade: Trump's behavior has always been controversial. The core question is: as more and more people understand his strategy, will he change his behavior and adjust his strategy? To this end, the analysis can be carried out from two levels: goal orientation and psychological model.

Iron Pillar

Trump's behavior pattern is highly purpose-oriented in nature. Behind every statement, every policy, and even every vague action, there is a clear goal. Whether it is supporting or suppressing a certain field, as long as it serves his goal, he can quickly switch his position. For example, he once publicly criticized cryptocurrency as a "scam", but later showed support and even used this change in attitude to gain benefits for himself. In his view, positions and ideologies are not immutable principles, but tools that can be adjusted at any time.

This highly goal-oriented behavior pattern allows Trump to show great flexibility when facing complex situations. For example, when his opponents guess some of his intentions and prepare corresponding countermeasures, he may completely adjust his strategy and adopt new methods to fight back. As long as the goal remains unchanged, his means and forms can change at any time.

From a psychological perspective, it is unlikely that Trump's behavior patterns will change fundamentally in the future. Psychological research shows that human psychological patterns change more in childhood, but after entering old age, their worldviews, values and behavior patterns are basically fixed and difficult to reverse. The childhood period from 0 to 6 years old is usually divided into multiple psychological growth stages, but after the age of 60, human psychological characteristics are classified into a single stage. This shows that the behavior and psychological tendencies of the elderly are extremely stable.

For Trump, his behavior pattern is deeply rooted in his psychological structure. Whether it is his past investment philosophy or political strategy, every decision he makes reflects the stability of this pattern. Therefore, no matter what situation he faces in the future, the essence of his strategy will continue.

Although Trump's behavior patterns will not change in essence, his strategies may evolve. He may no longer be limited to certain specific delaying tactics or vague promises, but may achieve the same goals in new ways. For example, in some areas, he may adopt a left-right roundabout strategy similar to the Israel war to achieve his goals. This ever-changing strategy is an important feature of his "unfinished philosophy" or "Wall Street-style tackle strategy."

Trump's flexibility allows him to maintain the initiative in different scenarios. His strategy can be adjusted according to the specific situation, but it always revolves around a clear goal. This flexible and diverse approach allows him to gain the upper hand in the game even when facing more and more opponents who are familiar with his routines.

As some have pointed out, the most striking thing about Trump's behavior is that he has no fixed position. This "no position" is not confusion or disorder, but a manifestation of his high goal orientation. He can support or oppose a policy at any time as long as doing so helps his goals. For example, he once opposed cryptocurrency, calling it a "scam", but later supported it and even allowed the crypto industry to benefit from it. This flexibility not only reflects his strategic wisdom, but also brings unexpected benefits to certain areas.

2. Trump's Strategy in the Iran-Israel Conflict

Jade: The conflict between Iran and Israel has escalated again, and the relevant words and deeds of former US President Trump have once again become the focus of public opinion. His decision-making methods, strategic choices, and the impact on the situation in the Middle East have sparked heated discussions. Especially in the US military's precise strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump's performance once again demonstrated his unique style. In the conflict between Iran and Israel, in which direction do you think Trump's decision-making will develop? In which direction will the whole incident develop?

Iron Pillar:

Overall, my conclusion is that if we analyze this incident from the perspective of market prices, such as the performance of assets such as Bitcoin, there has not been a particularly large drop, so the market reaction is relatively stable. Secondly, from the results of the action, Trump's main move this time was to destroy Iran's three nuclear facilities. This action was completed by B-2 bombers, and Israel relied on US military support due to its lack of heavy ground-penetrating missile capabilities. On the surface, this precision bombing seems to be an act of war and a logical manifestation of direct intervention.

However, if we analyze it from a rational point of view, we must say something for Trump, he did not expand the matter. With the strength of the United States, he is fully capable of making the situation more chaotic or escalating, but he did not do so. It is not because he cannot, but because he chose to restrain himself, and there are obviously reasons for this. Judging from Trump's behavior pattern, he is not a warmongerer, nor does he necessarily want to take the initiative to provoke a war. But in terms of safeguarding interests, his execution ability is unquestionable. This reminds me of an analysis article I wrote before, which mentioned Trump's characteristics, such as his TV show "I am an Apprentice". Through this show, we can see that he is a person with strong execution ability. Although he often "talks nonsense" and says some seemingly unreliable words, he is indeed an energetic and strong executive person. When facing interests, he shows great flexibility, while always being able to safeguard his own interests.

As for Israel and Iran, it is actually very difficult for the two sides to really have a large-scale conflict. First of all, Iran does not have nuclear weapons. Although I have no definite evidence, from all sources, it is very unlikely that Iran has nuclear weapons. However, the reason for this strike is that Iran's nuclear capabilities are constantly improving. Whether from the perspective of the United States' strategic interests in the Middle East or Israel's maintenance of regional dominance, they cannot tolerate Iran becoming a country with nuclear weapons. As a religious theocracy, Iran's particularity lies in its highly centralized ability to wage war. Once this capability is combined with nuclear weapons, the consequences will be very dangerous.

I personally think that it is not a good thing for a religious theocracy to have nuclear weapons. The decision-making of such a country is often irrational and its behavior is full of uncertainty. Under the system of religious theocracy, people are brainwashed and lack rational thinking and controllability. Therefore, from a rational point of view, I do not agree that such a country has nuclear weapons. The cruelty of the war and the inhumane attack on Iran are certainly worth reflecting on, but from a higher level of rational analysis, the reason why the United States and Israel took action against Iran is based on this. The rise of Iran's nuclear capabilities poses a major threat to the security of the Middle East and even the world, and this is also the core motivation for the United States and Israel to take action.

The core reason why Iran and Israel cannot have a large-scale conflict is that Iran lacks sufficient counterattack capabilities. Iran is at an absolute disadvantage militarily and is almost "pressed to the ground and ravaged". At the beginning of the conflict, many senior Iranian officials were precisely eliminated, which shows that the intelligence work of the United States and Israel is extremely sufficient and the ability to carry out targeted strikes is extremely strong. Even the commander and important leaders of Iran were quickly "eliminated". This precise strike fully demonstrated the efficiency of the joint efforts of the United States and Israel.

On the other hand, Israel has no intention to escalate the conflict, and in fact they have no ability to do so. There is no direct territorial border between the two countries, and it is difficult for the war to enter the ground war stage. Usually, once the war enters the contact stage of ground forces, it often means that the conflict has entered the deep waters of full escalation. However, due to geographical limitations, the conflict between Iran and Israel is more limited to long-range attacks of missiles and rockets. Although Iran may take some retaliatory actions, its ability is basically limited to launching more rockets or missiles, and this form of retaliation is unlikely to really change the situation.

It is worth noting that Trump's performance in this incident once again demonstrated his strategic operation. Previously, he announced on Twitter that "the problem will be solved in two weeks" and even said that he would go to play golf, and it seemed that he did not give priority to this incident. However, according to the New York Times, some of the six B-2 bombers at the US military base in Michigan flew to Guam, Japan. It is widely speculated that the bombing operation may have taken off from Guam. However, US officials later revealed that the bomber actually flew directly from the US mainland to Iran, carrying out a 37-hour flight mission. Although the flight time itself is controversial (because it normally only takes a dozen hours to arrive), this disclosure still reveals key information: at the same time that Trump announced that "the problem will be solved in two weeks", he had actually ordered the operation to begin.

If this information is true, it means that Trump has already deployed a careful plan behind the appearance of "playing golf" and "postponing action". He released "smoke bombs" to confuse the outside world and Iran, and bought time for military action. The reason for choosing a long flight of 37 hours is probably due to concealment considerations to avoid the bomber being detected. Therefore, the bomber may take a long detour to ensure the secrecy of the operation. This strategy of "making a feint to the east and attacking the west" is a classic, similar to the "secretly crossing Chencang" in Sun Tzu's Art of War, which catches the opponent off guard.

After the bombing, Trump quickly held a national televised press conference, indicating that these actions had been planned long ago, rather than being a temporary decision. This careful planning once again confirms Trump's highly strategic behavior. Although the outside world may criticize his "talking nonsense", for Trump, these are not important. His core logic is that as long as the goal can be achieved, how he is evaluated is not worth caring about. In the handling of the conflict between Israel and Iran, one of Trump's major characteristics can be clearly seen: everything is a strategy and means, and the accusations or infamy in the process can be ignored for the sake of results.

Overall, this incident was a restrained strategic choice by Trump. He did not try to escalate the situation, but achieved limited goals through precise strikes. This not only avoided the escalation of the conflict, but also once again demonstrated his pragmatism and flexibility. For Trump, the result is the only important indicator, and the evaluation of the outside world is always secondary.

Jade: If the conflict was really to be expanded, today's tactics would not be like this. The US military directly destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, and before the action, Iran seemed to have received some information and moved some materials in advance. From a certain "conspiracy theory" perspective, is this a "tacit" action? Perhaps both sides have a tacit understanding to push the incident in this direction. In fact, there has always been a lot of opposition to the Khamenei regime in Iran, and the power of the domestic opposition cannot be ignored.

In the long run, I do not think this will lead to the outbreak of World War III. Although some people hold this view, I think it is unlikely to happen. The reason is simple. Iran has neither the ability nor the strength to escalate the situation to the level of World War III.

3. Trump from a psychological perspective

Jade: When discussing Trump's personality, an interesting topic is his MBTI (Myers-Briggs Type Indicator) type. This personality test system provides a framework for analyzing people's behavior by classifying their personality traits. So, what might Trump's MBTI type be?

Iron Pillar:

Some people speculate that he is likely to be an extroverted personality, such as ENTP (extroversion, intuition, thinking, perception) or ESTP (extroversion, sensing, thinking, perception). These types usually have a strong desire for performance, abundant energy, and flexible coping ability, which seem to fit Trump's personality very well.

Another topic often mentioned in Trump's personality analysis is his "narcissistic personality". During his first term, many psychologists believed that he showed typical narcissistic personality traits. His fans refuted this, but many also supported this view.

The core of this controversy lies in Trump's behavior. His performance is often between real and performance, which makes it difficult to distinguish. His confidence seems impeccable, even to the point of doubt: Is this confidence from the heart, or a deliberate performance?

In psychology, there is an interesting phenomenon: when a person "performs" a certain character for a long time, this performance may gradually become internalized and become part of his personality. For Trump, his performance may have reached this level. His behavior and habits may no longer be simply defined as "real" or "performative."

This is one of the reasons why Trump's character is so striking. His performance wanders between reality and fiction, giving people a sense of "seamless switching". He seems to be able to freely adjust his role in different occasions, showing a tough side, but also showing flexibility and wit when needed.

4. Trump and Cryptocurrency

Jade: The Trump family's layout in the cryptocurrency ecosystem in recent years has gradually attracted widespread attention, especially the project they launched, Word Liberty Financial Initiative (WLFI) . This is a DeFi (decentralized finance) project running on the Ethereum blockchain, operated by Trump's two youngest sons and fully supported by the entire Trump family. WLFI's tokens have increased hundreds of times in pre-market trading on some exchanges . This phenomenon not only attracted the attention of the entire market, but also surprised many people who had previously been on the sidelines about the project. As a DeFi project with a strong political color, why can WLFI attract such a large market attention? What will be its future trend?

Iron Pillar:

At that time, we saw that this project was actually quite hesitant when it was raising funds, because the project itself was highly political. It combined politics with DeFi, which was very special. At that time, the fundraising did not fully meet expectations and seemed rather deserted. However, recently there was news that they were about to issue coins, and the market began to heat up rapidly. There were more and more bullish voices, and even in pre-market trading on some exchanges, the tokens of the project rose hundreds of times, which really shocked me. Therefore, I also want to hear Brother Tiezhu’s views on the future trend of this politically colored DeFi project and why it has attracted so much market attention.

First of all, we need to acknowledge two points. No matter how you look at Trump, the crypto policies he proposed before he took office are gradually being implemented. This is a fact that cannot be ignored. Secondly, in the current compliance process, whether it is stablecoins or other related policies, the United States is still the center of the crypto industry. The American narrative still dominates the development of the entire industry, which are the two major premises for our discussion of this project. Back to the WLFI project itself, it can be found that its rise is inseparable from Trump's coming to power. After Trump took office, he introduced a series of policies that had a profound impact on the industry. Although the entire crypto industry was in a downturn at the time, this project gradually attracted people's attention.

In summary, the success of this project can be attributed to several key points. First, there is a strong political influence behind it, which is far beyond market expectations. Take "Trump Coin" as an example. At first, no one could imagine that a president would personally participate in the launch of a cryptocurrency project. What's more outrageous is that Trump not only publicly admitted this, but also held a dinner for it and invited many heavyweights to participate. This series of actions exceeded people's imagination and sent a clear signal: If Trump is involved in such a project, then are there huge value mining space for other related projects? In particular, the WLFI project, which is led and operated by Trump's son Eric Trump, has deepened this expectation.

Secondly, from a macro perspective, the rise of the WLFI project reflects the current reality of the crypto industry: the entire industry is in a "half-dead" state. Whether it is Meme coins or altcoins, except for Bitcoin, which is "far ahead of the rest", other projects have almost no room for speculation. The reasons behind this are two-fold: first, the entire altcoin market relies on the overflow of liquidity, while last year's market was more driven by emotions and lacked essential improvements in liquidity, so it quickly hit the upper limit; second, the fundamentals of the global economy are weak, whether in the United States, China or Europe, the economy is in a weak state. In this environment, investors lack confidence, and funds tend to flow to head assets or targets with clear narratives. Against this background, a series of actions after Trump took office, including the stablecoin policy and the dominance of the American narrative, made WLFI one of the few projects that can stand out.

In addition, the success of the WLFI project also benefits from its unique narrative and power. In the current market, narrative drive is still the core logic of the crypto industry, and WLFI has the support of Trump and his political resources, which has formed a strong attraction. For example, a project like USD One may not have particularly outstanding technology or innovation, but its value cannot be ignored because it is backed by Trump's resources. This also shows once again that no matter what, the United States still has a dominant voice in the crypto industry. In the case of limited liquidity, funds will flow preferentially to projects with strong narratives and high influence, and WLFI is a typical representative of them.

More importantly, the WLFI project also has a hidden function, which can be regarded as a channel for delivering "political donations". Taking the "Trump Coin" dinner as an example, the participants are not simply for investment profit, but hope to establish connections with Trump and his political resources by purchasing "Trump Coin" or participating in the WLFI project. This realization of political influence is an important reason for the project to attract funds. Whether it is to get in touch with Trump or to obtain more resources in future policy making, the enthusiasm of participants for the project far exceeds the ordinary investment logic.

In summary, the success of the WLFI project is the result of multiple factors: political influence, liquidity drive, narrative effect, and a series of policies after Trump took office. These factors combined have made WLFI the focus of the current market. It is not only an encryption project, but also a product of the combination of politics and finance, showing the evolution path of the encryption industry under the new situation.

5. Future market expectations

Jade: In addition, many of my friends are negative about the current market performance. They believe that the glory days of altcoins may never come back. As for the narrative of the crypto industry, everyone is also discussing when new innovations will emerge. Perhaps, we really need to wait for interest rate cuts or large-scale liquidity release before we can see new changes in the market.

In this context, I personally would like to ask Brother Tiezhu to predict when the good news of interest rate cuts will come? This may be a key node for us to rekindle our confidence in the crypto industry.

Iron Pillar:

The most optimistic expectation is that the rate cut may come in September, while the pessimistic scenario may be delayed until December. During this period, I think the rate cut may be between 1 and 2 times, each time 25 basis points. This speculation is based on the situation of the last interest rate meeting, when the overall tone was hawkish. The reason is that the tariff impact has not yet been reflected in the inflation data, and Powell also mentioned in his speech that the labor market is still roughly balanced. These remarks indicate that Powell's speech may have been prepared as early as last month.

Logically, as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Powell is not willing to bear the stigma of runaway inflation at the end of the economic cycle. After all, if the economy has come to this point and inflation suddenly gets out of control, he will become the "eternal sinner" of history. This is meaningless and of no benefit to him. At the same time, he does not want the economy to collapse, and he is even more unwilling to completely offend Trump, the White House and Washington. Therefore, his speeches usually choose ambiguous, neutral and "hawkish" words, so that the outside world can interpret them appropriately. This can not only curb inflation, but also avoid directly admitting that the economy may deteriorate.

But this does not mean that Powell has not seen signs of economic weakness or even deterioration. He must be aware of the fragility of the economy, but he will not admit it publicly. Once he makes it clear that the economy is deteriorating, he must push for interest rate cuts, which may trigger inflation backlash, which he obviously does not want to see. Therefore, his strategy is very clear: he will only cut interest rates when the economic problems are so serious that they cannot be ignored and exceed the risks posed by inflation itself. In other words, Powell's logic is simple - cut interest rates if the economy collapses, otherwise never act easily.

So, will the US economy "collapse"? Based on my long-term observation, it is highly likely that the US economy is weakening and may even enter a shallow recession. Although there has been an argument of "American exception" last year, I am skeptical about this. Because no economy or asset can grow forever without falling, this does not conform to basic economic laws. The United States cannot violate this "law of physics".

Recently, we have seen a split between the "soft data" and "hard data" in the United States. People feel that the economic situation is very bad, but the statistics show good performance. This contradiction shows that many problems have not yet fully emerged. I think the US economy is still declining, but it has not yet reached the point where Powell has enough reasons or positions to push for a rate cut. He still does not want to bear the stigma that may come with a rate cut.

Therefore, the third quarter will be critical. If inflation continues to rise and the labor market begins to deteriorate, a rate cut will become inevitable. If it is delayed to the fourth quarter, the economy may be further weakened by the inflation shock. At the same time, Trump's continued pressure and public calls will also increase the possibility of a rate cut. Therefore, I am cautiously optimistic about the expectation of a rate cut.

From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts also apply. Rate cuts will create more liquidity for crypto assets and may also drive the market to new highs. At least before the end of this year, we can still expect more upside in the crypto market.

6. Stablecoins and Trump’s Crypto Era

Jade: As an important bridge between the crypto world and traditional finance, the development of stablecoins is closely linked to US policies. Whether Trump's crypto era will truly promote the innovation and development of the crypto ecosystem, or will it simply be used as a tool to digitize the US dollar to consolidate the US's dominant position in the global financial system, is a question worthy of in-depth discussion. Next, we will further explore the impact of Trump's crypto era and the deeper political and economic intentions behind it.

Iron Pillar:

Speaking of hegemony, this topic has recently sparked widespread discussion in the cryptocurrency market, especially in the current market, one of the hottest topics is undoubtedly stablecoins. From the continued rise of Circle to the launch of the stablecoin system in Hong Kong, it has attracted a lot of attention. Since Hong Kong and the United States have successively launched relevant stablecoin policies, I have received more than a dozen calls, and almost everyone is asking: "Can we issue stablecoins in Hong Kong? How to do it?" Obviously, this is an opportunity of the times. However, every time I hear such an inquiry, I am stunned. Stablecoins seem to be an epoch-making innovation, but from a research perspective, I even think it is more like a "regression of the system."

Of course, this "regression" is in quotation marks. Stablecoins are considered a form of currency, but they are not a form of currency under the current credit system. Instead, they are closer to the currency of the gold standard era because they usually require 100% asset reserves. The modern monetary system is based on the reserve system, and fiat currency is essentially a liability. For example, every dollar issued by the United States is a liability, as are the Chinese renminbi and the European euro. However, stablecoins are an asset that solves the efficiency problem of the dollar in circulation. Stablecoins can be compared to an efficiently running "dollar car". After adding a "nitrogen accelerator", transactions can be faster and settlements more efficient.

Although stablecoins have no technical barriers and low entry barriers, such as Hong Kong's capital requirement of only HK$25 million, which is not a problem for large institutions, the real challenge is: what to do after entering? How do you plan to operate? Especially at this stage, most stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies (more than 99%) are pegged to the US dollar. This model may directly impact the foreign exchange systems of many non-US dollar countries, especially those without foreign exchange controls. For these countries, stablecoins are equivalent to the equivalent of the US dollar, and their popularity may have serious consequences. For example, in the Middle East or other countries subject to US sanctions, using stablecoins is equivalent to bypassing restrictions and directly using US dollars.

This characteristic of stablecoins not only brings an impact on business, but also concerns the game between monetary sovereignty. In this game, the hegemony of the US dollar is the core issue. From a micro perspective, it is estimated that there are more than 100 institutions that have applied to issue stablecoins in Hong Kong, and many people are exploring how to enter this field. However, after issuing stablecoins, are there application scenarios and channels to support their development? If there is a lack of practical application, these efforts may be meaningless. Even stablecoins like PYUSD have not been able to grow rapidly, and their scale is still limited to this day.

From Trump's perspective, stablecoins are clearly an important tool to continue the hegemony of the US dollar. This is not just to help the United States deal with its debt problems, although the underlying assets of stablecoins are short-term US bonds. Short-term US bonds have always been easy to sell, but medium- and long-term US bonds (such as five, seven, ten or thirty years) are really difficult to sell. Therefore, although stablecoins can alleviate debt pressure to a certain extent, its core goal is to improve the circulation efficiency of the US dollar and further maintain the global dominance of the US dollar.

For ordinary people, the opportunities to participate in stablecoins may be more concentrated on application scenarios. The current stablecoin market is still undecided, and the competition landscape between compliance and non-compliance has not yet been fully formed. For example, Tether currently has the highest market share, but it still has compliance issues, while USDC is currently the only compliant major stablecoin. However, this does not mean that the market will be completely monopolized by USDC. Giants like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, with their payment settlement networks and huge application scenarios, may enter the market at any time and change the competition landscape.

There are two main directions for the application of stablecoins: one is speculation and hype on the chain, and the other is payment and settlement in the real world. Both directions have certain opportunities for ordinary people to participate. For example, USD One launched by the Trump family has become a hot spot in the market, and many people have achieved short-term profits through projects associated with it. Similarly, in the field of payment and settlement, a large number of entrepreneurial projects may emerge in the future. Whether it is innovation in decentralized finance (DeFi) or payment solutions in the real world, it will inject new vitality into the stablecoin track.

In general, the stablecoin track is still full of opportunities. The current competitive landscape has not yet been finalized, and new gameplay and models will continue to emerge. For this field, both ordinary investors and institutional participants need to pay close attention to seize opportunities that may arise in the future.

There are actually certain opportunities for compliant stablecoins and even non-compliant "deformed" stablecoins. For example, do some non-compliant stablecoins have no chance at all? I think there is. Stablecoins issued by many people often need to be deformed or transformed, because if they are non-compliant, they cannot be called "stablecoins." Perhaps it can be defined as a financial derivative, such as USDE, which claims to be a stablecoin, but is actually not compliant. So how will similar projects develop in the future? This type of stablecoin will also have a certain impact on the market due to issues such as market interest rates.

Therefore, I think we need to focus on several major areas. The first is the development of the "transformed" stablecoin track, which may become a direction worth exploring. The second is the application in the payment and settlement field, where some new projects may emerge. In addition, the new stablecoin players entering the market are also worth paying attention to. The opportunities they bring on the market or the opportunities to participate may inject new vitality into the market.

At least for the foreseeable future, stablecoins will remain a hot topic in this market. As long as it is a hot topic and as long as there is an influx of funds, we should pay close attention. For retail investors, opportunities to make money often appear where hot money gathers. If there is no influx of hot money, the market will not have enough volatility for people to make profits. Therefore, our strategy should be to seize the changes in market style, follow the flow of hot funds, and look for investment opportunities.

7. The dual game of wealth and power

Jade: Although Tiezhu has said a lot and I have a very comprehensive understanding of him, I still have some doubts. How much does he know about crypto itself? Is there any way for him to really participate in some specific tracks in the crypto world ecosystem? What do you think of this opportunity, or do you have any opposing views?

Iron Pillar:

As to whether Trump is aiming to amass personal wealth, I partially agree with this view, but I need to add one more point: his goal is not only to amass wealth, but more importantly to ensure that people like Vance who support him can firmly occupy the key positions of the next term in four years. If we assume a scenario: the Republican Party loses in the midterm elections four years later or even in the midterm elections, and loses the majority of seats in the Senate or the House of Representatives, then Trump is likely to face the dilemma of his first term again - endless Democratic counterattacks or even lawsuits. This is something he absolutely does not want to see. Therefore, he will inevitably do his best to amass wealth and accumulate resources for future political layout. It is for this reason that we see him frantically making money through various means. Although this behavior is very disgraceful from our perspective, from Trump's perspective, decency is not important. As long as he can make money, this has achieved his core purpose.

As for whether he will continue to participate in the crypto industry in the future, or even promote related development, I think the answer is yes. Especially in the field of stablecoins, I think he may have more actions in the future. If we assume that the United States will cut interest rates in the future, or introduce more compliance policies, then there must be huge opportunities to make money hidden in it. For Trump, as long as there is an opportunity to make money, he will not miss it. This highly sensitive personality to business and wealth determines that he will continue to take advantage of various arbitrage opportunities in the crypto industry, whether it is risk-free returns or monetization through influence. In fact, he has already tasted the sweetness in this field. For example, the USDY project promoted by his son, and even related operations such as Ethereum, as well as the recent incident that he made $50 million without doing anything, all illustrate this point.

From Trump's perspective, he is a person who is extremely commercial and eager to make money. Therefore, he will definitely continue to look for opportunities to make money in the crypto field in the future. For him, there is no end to making money, and he will keep "fleecing" until there is nothing left. This desire and greed are determined by his character and can hardly be stopped. Of course, perhaps in the future he may not necessarily participate in person, but continue to promote related activities through invisible means, such as using tools like WFI. This possibility is very high.

Essentially, once the logic of making money is turned on, it is impossible for Trump to stop. His character requires him to make every last penny, even in every detail. For example, the incident in which he used a loophole to get a tax refund to "fleece the American people" was very typical. At that time, many people were ashamed of his behavior and thought it was very bottom-line-less, but Trump was proud of it, claiming that this was his cleverness and a genius logic for making money. In his view, making money within the rules, no matter how undignified, is something to be proud of. This logic, which is completely different from that of ordinary people, also makes him stand out in business and politics.

Therefore, although we may criticize Trump's money-making behavior from a moral perspective, these criticisms have no effect on him. The only "face" he cares about is the opposition and criticism from others, not whether he makes money in an indecent way. Based on various signs, I judge that Trump will not leave the crypto industry. He will definitely continue to participate in the crypto track in some form. As long as there is a wealth effect and arbitrage space in this industry, he will not give up the opportunity.

Jade: I learned a lot from this chat with Tiezhu. It reminded me of Trump's first term, when I was still a reporter, reporting on his news every day, and really felt that his policies were closely related to our lives. During that time, I never paid so much attention to the presidents of other countries, and even named my cat "Jianguo".

I didn't expect that now that he is in his second term, he is actually closer to my life. Not only in the field of financial news, his voice is almost everywhere in the entire crypto industry. Today's discussion makes me more convinced that Trump is really a representative of "old but strong", and truly interprets "life is endless, and tossing is endless".

I hope our sharing can help you to more clearly sort out Trump's behavior logic, understand what kind of person he is, and his potential impact on the future development trend of the United States, the world, and especially the encryption industry. Special thanks to Brother Tiezhu for sharing. If you have more topics you want to discuss, you can follow our "Crypto Basic Law" and you are also welcome to follow Brother Tiezhu's Twitter. At the same time, thank our sponsor HashKey for its support.