Today's top news highlights:

1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Trump's script is about to collapse in the sixth week of the war, CPI is about to explode, and gold prices may be about to undergo a major turnaround.

2. Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum; Iranian military vows to firmly defend its rights.

3. Drift: Hackers suspected to be from a North Korean organization, who spent six months making covert contact and ultimately gaining access.

4. OpenClaw founder responds to Anthropic's ban: Project is independent; previously invited Anthropic to join a non-profit organization.

5. Polymarket removed the contract regarding the fate of the missing U.S. pilot, citing a violation of "integrity standards".

6. Data: Bitcoin whales and sharks lost an average of over $300 million per day in Q1, and have accumulated losses of over $30.9 billion for the year.

Regulation & Macro

Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Trump's Script Is About to Collapse in the Sixth Week of the War, CPI Is About to Plunge, and Gold Prices May Be About to Take a Dramatic Turn.

The US released its non-farm payrolls report on Friday, showing an increase of 178,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, the February figure was revised down from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. This report provided short-term support for the US dollar against the backdrop of a reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and Trump's script for a swift victory is crumbling. A more crucial test for the market is approaching: the first CPI since the start of the war is about to be released, and inflation is expected to skyrocket. Some are warning that "now is not the time to trade." Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):

At 22:00 on Monday, the US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released.

At 23:00 on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release its 1-year inflation forecasts for March.

At 00:35 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will speak on monetary policy.

At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

On Thursday at 20:30, the following data will be released: US initial jobless claims, US February core PCE price index year-on-year, US February personal spending month-on-month, US Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final reading, US Q4 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter final reading, US Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter final reading, and US February core PCE price index month-on-month.

At 20:30 on Friday, the US March unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate/core CPI year-on-year rate and the US March seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate/core CPI month-on-month rate will be released.

At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary readings of the US April one-year inflation rate, the preliminary reading of the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the US February factory orders month-on-month rate will be released.

"Federal Reserve mouthpiece": Low job growth may become the new normal, but it is particularly vulnerable in the context of war.

Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that March saw 178,000 new jobs, reversing the sharp decline in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less encouraging: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to its lowest year-on-year rate in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals the underlying trend more clearly: an average of only 22,500 new jobs per month. Two years ago, 22,500 new jobs per month would have been alarming; now, that level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still struggling to explain this shift.

"It's not easy to get the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth still corresponds to full employment," San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday. This situation is particularly vulnerable in the event of a new supply shock. If the war with Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market with little buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, the Fed's policy space is also more limited as inflation concerns could erode the certainty of interest rate cuts.

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to consider Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman on April 16.

A source familiar with the matter told CNBC that the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing on April 16 to consider Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman. Another criminal investigation surrounding the Fed is ongoing, examining whether current Chairman Jerome Powell made false statements to Congress regarding the expensive renovation of the Fed's office buildings. The fact that Warsh's nomination process is still progressing creates a potential conflict between the two parallel processes being pushed by the Trump administration. Banking Committee member Thom Tillis has already indicated that he will not vote to confirm Warsh until the investigation is complete, meaning Trump cannot proceed with both processes simultaneously. However, by continuing to hold the hearings, Trump is clearly still trying to achieve this goal. The Senate Banking Committee has not yet included the hearings in its public schedule.

Trump: 178,000 new jobs and a 55% drop in the trade deficit are attributable to tariffs.

US President Trump stated: "Yesterday's jobs data was excellent, with 178,000 new jobs added, and the trade deficit fell by 55%, the largest drop in history. Thank you, Mr. Tariffs! Meanwhile, we are also working to eliminate a nuclear-armed Iran."

Trump issues 48-hour ultimatum; Iranian military says it will firmly defend its rights.

US President Donald Trump posted on social media, reiterating his tough stance on the Iran issue. He stated that he had previously given Iran 10 days to reach an agreement or open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump indicated that the deadline was approaching and warned that if the US demands were not met, further action could be taken "within 48 hours."

Iranian Armed Forces Khatham Anbia Central Command Commander Abdullahhi responded that the Iranian military will firmly defend national rights, protect state assets, and make the aggressors pay the price. Abdullahhi said that after a series of defeats, Trump has acted "helplessly, panicked, unbalanced, and foolishly," attempting to threaten Iranian infrastructure and state assets. Abdullahhi emphasized that if the United States and Israel launch such attacks, "we will launch unrestricted, sustained, and devastating strikes against all infrastructure used by the US military and Israeli infrastructure." He reminded the US and Israel that since the start of this war imposed on Iran, "everything we have said has been done."

Polymarket removed the contract regarding the fate of the missing U.S. pilot, citing a violation of its "integrity standard."

Polymarket, a prediction marketplace, has removed event contracts related to the fate of the missing American pilot, stating that the content violated the platform's "integrity standards" and should not have been listed. The platform is currently reviewing its internal review process. The incident reportedly sparked widespread controversy, with over 60% of users betting on whether the pilot would be rescued in the short term. However, Polymarket has not yet clarified the specific terms of the violation, raising questions about the transparency of its rules.

Project Updates

Bitcoin at Block, founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, will launch a free Bitcoin faucet.

Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey's Bitcoin at Block will launch a free Bitcoin faucet, marking the return of the Bitcoin faucet after 16 years. Jack Dorsey has already announced the faucet location "btc.day" on the X platform. It is reported that the total distribution pool is approximately $1 million worth of BTC (about 15 BTC), funded by the Bitcoin treasury of Jack Dorsey's Block company.

Drift: Hackers suspected to be from a North Korean organization, who spent six months making deceptive contact and ultimately gaining access.

Drift has released an updated investigation into the attack, indicating that the operation was carried out by the same threat actors as the Radiant Capital hack in October 2024, with a high degree of similarity in on-chain fund flows and operational methods. Mandiant has attributed the Radiant Capital hack to UNC4736, an organization linked to the North Korean government.

Furthermore, this attack was meticulously planned over six months. Starting in the fall of 2025, a group posing as a "quantitative trading company" proactively contacted Drift contributors at multiple international crypto conferences. They established a Telegram group and engaged in in-depth business discussions and strategy exchanges for six months, even launching an Ecosystem Vault on Drift with $1 million in real funds. After multiple face-to-face meetings to build trust, they shared links and tools, ultimately seemingly completing the intrusion through a malicious code repository and a beta wallet app (TestFlight). Following the attack, all related chat logs and malware were thoroughly removed.

The investigation is ongoing, and these findings are preliminary. All remaining protocol functionality has been frozen, and the compromised wallet has been removed from multi-signature authentication. The attacker's wallet has been flagged by exchanges and cross-chain bridge operators.

Previous reports indicated that Drift suffered losses exceeding $285 million in the attack.

Elemental has resumed normal operations, and the damaged SOL and USDC vaults have been written down.

DeFi protocol Elemental tweeted that it has resumed normal operations. Final data has now been confirmed: the SOL 1 and 2 vaults were reduced by 87.51%, and the USDC Lend vault by 62.10%. Following the write-downs, all affected vaults have fully recovered, and users are free to unstake, withdraw, or deposit. Furthermore, the platform has merged the Beta environment into the main platform and introduced historical records to improve transparency.

Opinions & Analysis

VanEck Research Director: Protective demand for BTC derivatives reaches the 99th percentile historically, signaling a contrarian bullish stance.

Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee shared an analysis by VanEck Research Director Matthew Sigel on the X platform. Sigel pointed out that the current demand for protective assets in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the 99th percentile in history, which is usually regarded as a "contrarian long signal" under extreme risk aversion in the market. He judged that the market is suitable for establishing long positions at this stage.

Matthew Sigel also manages the VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% over the same period, achieving lower volatility through diversified allocation and a focus on profitable sectors. However, he also cautioned that massive corporate capital expenditures in artificial intelligence (AI) that fail to generate corresponding returns could put substantial pressure on the market, especially given the concentrated weighting of S&P 500 constituent stocks.

(Note: Percentile is a statistical position concept. The 99th percentile is a relatively extreme level, and the 50th percentile represents the median level.)

OpenClaw founder responds to Anthropic's ban: Project is independent; previously invited Anthropic to join a non-profit organization.

Following Anthropic's announcement of its ban on OpenClaw, its founder, Peter Steinberger, issued an urgent clarification: OpenClaw is an independently operated project and has no connection to his personal joining OpenAI. He revealed that OpenClaw had proactively invited Anthropic and more than ten other companies to join its non-profit organization, but Anthropic did not respond, while most of the other companies did.

As previously reported, Anthropic cut off Claude subscription support for OpenClaw due to resource optimization after Peter joined OpenAI in February.

Michael Saylor: Bitcoin has won; the four-year cycle is over.

Michael Saylor stated in an article on the X platform that a global consensus has emerged that Bitcoin is "digital capital," and the market structure is undergoing a fundamental transformation. He believes that the traditional "four-year cycle" is no longer applicable, and Bitcoin's price will be primarily driven by capital flows. Saylor points out that the future banking system and digital credit will determine Bitcoin's growth path, while warning that the greatest risk comes from "medical-induced" protocol changes driven by flawed concepts, which could cause unnecessary interference and damage to the network.

Analysis: In the two months following a global shock, Bitcoin typically outperforms gold and the S&P 500.

A recent analysis by Brazilian cryptocurrency exchange Mercado Bitcoin shows that Bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe-haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises. The study analyzed a 60-day window following economic or geopolitical shocks and found that Bitcoin's returns exceeded those of gold and the S&P 500 in each period. The analysis states that despite its high volatility, Bitcoin consistently rebounds quickly after crises and has been the best-performing asset over the past decade.

Important data

Data: Bitcoin whales and sharks lost an average of over $300 million per day in Q1, and have accumulated losses of over $30.9 billion for the year.

According to Glassnode's on-chain data, in the first quarter of 2026, "sharks" holding 100-1,000 Bitcoins and "whales" holding 1,000-10,000 Bitcoins incurred daily losses of approximately $188.5 million and $147.5 million respectively, totaling approximately $337 million. The cumulative locked-in losses for the year reached a staggering $30.9 billion, approaching the levels seen during the 2022 bear market.

Analysis indicates that current selling pressure stems from rising macroeconomic risks (inflation expectations, AI trading congestion, etc.) and weakening market confidence, with large holders accelerating stop-loss exits. Meanwhile, long-term holders (LTH) continue to incur daily losses at a high level of approximately $200 million, suggesting that the market has not yet shown clear signs of "selling pressure exhaustion." Analysts believe that under multiple pressures, Bitcoin still faces further downside risks, with some predicting a potential bottom range of $40,000 to $50,000.

Dragonfly transferred $2.12 million worth of MNT to Bybit

According to Arkham's monitoring, Dragonfly transferred $2.12 million worth of MNT to Bybit. This is his first withdrawal from a known cryptocurrency wallet in two months and his largest holding outside of BGB. Dragonfly currently holds only $107.29 million worth of BGB and $1.92 million worth of other cryptocurrencies.

An address allegedly sold ETH after holding it for two months, incurring a 39% loss.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, address 0xB7C…467Ec deposited 1856 ETH (approximately $3.78 million) into OKX 45 minutes ago, which appears to be a sell order. Most of these were withdrawn from the exchange on January 18 at a short-term high of $3339.38. If sold, this would result in a loss of $1.89 million, representing a 39% decrease in assets.

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