PANews reported on March 8th that Garrett Jin, an agent of the on-chain analyst known as the "1011 Crash Insider Whale," published an article on the X platform pointing out a clear correlation between historical oil supply gaps and oil price increases: a supply gap of approximately 7% in 1973 drove oil prices up by about 300%; a gap of approximately 4-5% in 1979 caused oil prices to more than double; and supply disruptions around 1990 also led to a significant rise in oil prices. All three crises were related to the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts on energy supplies.
He stated that the potential supply shock surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is currently around 15%, significantly higher than historical cases. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only "days to weeks," but very few models anticipate it could last for months. If market expectations regarding the duration are not met, more long positions may be forced into the market, further pushing up oil prices.
