Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
U.S. stocks suffered their biggest single-day drop since the outbreak of war yesterday, with all three major indexes falling sharply. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.01% to 45,960.11 points, the S&P 500 plunged 1.74% to 6,477.16 points, and the Nasdaq Composite plummeted 2.38% to 21,408.08 points, officially entering a technical correction phase. JPMorgan Chase's previously established 6,475-point options defense line is facing a severe test, with zero-day expiring (0DTE) options funds engaged in fierce competition at this level. Analysts warn that if this level is breached, the S&P 500 could potentially head straight for 6,000 points.
Furthermore, Trump announced a 10-day extension of the strikes on Iranian energy facilities until April 6, stating that this was "at the request of the Iranian government" and that negotiations were "progressing well." However, the peace mediators subsequently stated that Iran had not requested an extension, and that significant differences remained between the US and Iran on core issues, including Iran's refusal to discuss its missile program or commit to halting uranium enrichment activities. The market is currently in a very awkward position, as media reports of dialogue between Iran and the US could be either true or false, as everyone is giving conflicting accounts. The Pentagon is currently considering deploying up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to provide Trump with more military options.
International oil prices have rebounded recently, with WTI crude rising to $95 per barrel and Brent crude surging 5.66% to $108.01 per barrel. The $100 mark for Brent crude has become a "lifeline" for the market; if oil prices remain above $100 for an extended period, the market could enter a period of high volatility. Bloomberg strategist Michael Ball points out that oil prices are a key variable in the current market, and their high levels will exacerbate inflation expectations, further suppressing stock market performance.
Meanwhile, the natural gas market was also impacted, with Tropical Cyclone Narrat causing shutdowns at liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities in Western Australia, affecting 8% of global LNG supply. Chevron confirmed that its Gorgon and Wheatstone facilities were shut down due to severe weather, further exacerbating market concerns about energy supply.
In the precious metals market, spot gold closed down 2.85% at $4,380 per ounce, while spot silver plunged 4.5% to $68 per ounce. The Turkish central bank sold over 58 tons of gold in the past two weeks to obtain liquidity, with analysts believing that the impact of war is forcing some central banks to sell their gold reserves to fulfill their dollar obligations. TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali stated that the economic pressure from the war may further weaken global central bank demand for gold.
Faced with inflationary pressures, Federal Reserve Governor Milan proposed reducing the Fed's balance sheet, with an expected reduction of between $1 trillion and $2 trillion. He pointed out that the current size of the balance sheet needs to be re-evaluated, perhaps measured by financial variables such as bank deposits rather than GDP. As economic data worsens, market expectations for future Fed rate hikes are rising, and the OECD has warned that the Middle East crisis could push US inflation to 4.2%, the highest among the G7.
Overall, market sentiment remains tense, with investors uncertain about future trends. Global markets are under dual pressure from inflation and geopolitics, making key levels for oil prices and stock markets a focal point. Investors need to closely monitor future oil price movements and geopolitical developments to cope with potential sharp market fluctuations.
AI Dynamics
Google recently released TurboQuant, a new AI memory compression algorithm that can reduce the memory footprint of large models by one-sixth while improving performance by eight times. Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince described the technology as "Google's version of DeepSeek," and its impact quickly triggered market panic, with investors worried that the demand logic for AI storage chips will be completely rewritten.
The news sent shockwaves through the global chip sector, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging 4.79%. Coherent shares plummeted 10.53%, Lam Research and Applied Materials fell more than 8%, Nvidia dropped 4.16%, and AMD and TSMC fell 7.49% and 6.20%, respectively.
Meanwhile, an infrastructure arms race among tech giants is intensifying. Meta announced it would drastically increase its investment in its Texas AI data center from $150 million to $10 billion, with plans to achieve 1 gigawatt of computing power by 2028. Despite this, the financial pressure from such massive capital expenditures has raised market concerns, and Meta's stock price plummeted 7.92% on March 26, leading the decline among the seven major tech companies.
Analysts point out that Google's technological breakthroughs could have a disruptive impact on the AI chip market, potentially putting pressure on traditional chip manufacturers to reassess their valuations. Currently, competition among tech giants has shifted from a simple contest of computing power to a comprehensive confrontation over technological approaches, which may profoundly change the future landscape of the AI industry. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent technological evolution and dynamic adjustments in the chip market.
Bitcoin price
Caught between geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic turmoil, Bitcoin fell more than 4% in a single day, unable to hold the $69,000 mark. Surprisingly, after the US stock market closed, Trump announced a postponement of the airstrikes, causing S&P futures to surge instantly, but Bitcoin remained unmoved.
Since the US and Israel launched the "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28, Bitcoin has been trapped in a range of $68,000 to $76,000. $68,000 is the support level that has been maintained for four weeks, while $63,000 is the absolute bottom line for "war premium to zero". Once it falls below this level, it means that all the positive pricing brought about by the geopolitical conflict will be completely wiped out.
The largest options settlement storm of Q1 is approaching today, with nearly 40% of options expiring. Greeks.live researcher Adam points out that the major resistance level of $75,000 is now out of reach, and the put/call ratio remains low at 0.6. Smart money is frantically rolling over, building large positions in June and September out-of-the-money call options to cope with the impending volatility crash.
Glassnode data shows that long-term investors holding for more than 155 days have quietly accumulated approximately 85,000 Bitcoins since March 10th, with an STH/LTH supply ratio of 16.7%, indicating that established capital has not fled. However, CryptoQuant data shows that of the 5.7 million Bitcoins held by short-term holders (STH), a staggering 92% are currently at a loss, and the average cost above $70,000 means that every rebound faces selling pressure.
Strategy's holdings of approximately 762,000 Bitcoins have an average cost of $75,600, which is not only a recent all-time high but also forms a resistance anchor on the blockchain. The current average realized price across the entire market is approximately $54,000, leaving a 23% downside potential.
Bearish view
The bears' logic is cold and clear: the successive breaches of key support levels and the breakdown of technical patterns indicate that the market has not yet bottomed out, and any rebound is just a trap to lure in more buyers during the downtrend.
Michaël van de Poppe: The market has clearly lacked upward momentum after being blocked at $75,000. Once the upward trend of higher lows is broken, a faster decline is inevitable. He is patiently waiting to look for long opportunities at the lower edge of the $60,000 range.
Astronomer: Never consider any long positions until $65,000 or lower is reached. The intermediate support level has been exhausted, and $65,000 is the strong magnetic field in his trading system.
Sykodelic: We are currently in a wide-range consolidation phase, forming a bottom. Every rally in this bear market is swallowed up by pullbacks. The key entry points for long positions will shift down to $65,500, $62,500, and even $58,000.
Killa: Everything is resistance until proven to be a breakout. Once the weekly opening price of $67,900 is breached, the price will inevitably slide to $65,000, and there is currently a large amount of long liquidation in the $69,000 to $66,000 range.
Rekt Fencer: The market will perfectly execute the cruel trilogy of "filling the $80,000 CME gap, creating a bull trap, and finally hitting a new low," and Bitcoin is currently painfully trading below the $78,000 production cost line at a 10% discount.
Ardi & LP: Once the double structure at $67,300 collapses, the long positions below $67,000 will become the most direct target for short sellers.
bullish view
The bulls believe that the continued accumulation of shares by institutional whales and the resilience of key support levels are building momentum for an epic rebound.
JPMorgan Chase: During the Iran war, Bitcoin's borderless and self-custodial nature made it a safe-haven asset that far outperformed gold and silver. While precious metals experienced capital flight, Bitcoin saw a net inflow against the trend.
Santiment: Whale and shark addresses have been snapping up over 61,000 Bitcoins in the past month. When large investors hoard coins while retail investors panic and sell, this is an absolute harbinger of the start of a historic bull market.
Daan Crypto Trades: Bitcoin is stubbornly holding near the weekly 200EMA, and the market is undergoing deep accumulation between $60,000 and $80,000, with the bullish support zone rapidly shifting downwards to attract buyers.
Cold Blooded Shiller: The market is rapidly digesting the panic over the energy attack, and a highly aggressive counter-trend rally is about to unfold during the lull in Trump's pause on the attack.
Crypto Tony: There is extremely strong support around $67,000. As long as a higher low can be formed here, a redemption-level rebound targeting $71,000 is imminent.
Castillo Trading: Although going long at the current level is challenging, the $68,203 support level is still worth taking a shot in a market heavily influenced by news headlines and Trump's rhetoric.
Ethereum Dynamics
Ethereum plunged nearly 6% in a single day, retreating to the dangerous edge of $2,050. Weekly trading volume on DEXs plummeted 50% to $9.4 billion, completely losing its upward momentum. The derivatives market also lacked dynamism, with the annualized premium for 2-month futures falling to a paltry 2%, and demand for leveraged long positions reaching rock bottom.
Some analysts believe that once geopolitical alarms are lifted and market risk appetite recovers, Ethereum could easily rebound to $2,400 with just a resonant reversal of a few key indicators.
Market Dynamics
The altcoin market is also not immune to the downward trend. Analyst Ali Charts points out that Solana has accumulated a massive amount of over 100 million coins in the $91.45 to $82.60 range, which is the ultimate demand zone that will determine its fate. Once this level is broken, it could fall to $53.10 or even lower. TAO, which surged this month, is also in a precarious situation, with a "death cross" appearing on the daily chart. Historical data shows that this pattern is often accompanied by a sharp drop of up to 40%. SIREN, which surged a few days ago, has also experienced a sharp drop, falling nearly 50% today.
David Sacks, the White House's head of AI and cryptocurrency affairs, stepped down before he could even begin to make a difference in the industry due to the expiration of his term. His push for stablecoin legislation and the Clarity Act has stalled in Congress, significantly diminishing the expected policy benefits.
Key data (as of 13:00 HKT on March 27)
(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: -$171 million
Ethereum ETF: -$92.5448 million, marking the 7th consecutive day of net outflows.
SOL ETF: -$1,041,000
Fear of Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ONT, ETH, SUN
Sector Performance: The crypto market generally saw a correction, with the AI sector falling nearly 8%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 76,304 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $233 million, including $71.04 million in BTC liquidations, $56.66 million in ETH liquidations, and $7.77 million in SOL liquidations.
Today's Outlook
The US released the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March and the final reading of the one-year inflation rate expectations.
Binance removes several spot trading pairs, including ALT/BTC and CYBER/BNB.
Jupiter (JUP) will unlock approximately 53.47 million tokens, worth about $8.3 million, on March 28.
The biggest drops among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Siren down 48.7%, Bittensor down 13.7%, Stellar down 11.3%, ASI Alliance down 9.8%, and Quant down 8.3%.
Hot News
GameStop has converted its $368 million Bitcoin holdings into an options payout strategy.
MARA Holdings sold 15,133 bitcoins and repurchased over $1 billion in convertible bonds.
Fannie Mae to accept Bitcoin mortgage loans for the first time
The Solana Foundation has updated its validator delegation program requirements, effective May 1st.
Sky Treasury Inc. (SDEV) holds 2.135 billion SKY tokens, worth approximately $156 million.
