PANews reported on April 4th, citing Jinshi News, that Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote that March saw 178,000 new jobs, reversing the sharp decline in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less encouraging: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to its lowest year-on-year rate in five years since the post-pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals the underlying trend more clearly: an average of only 22,500 new jobs per month. Two years ago, 22,500 new jobs per month would have been alarming; now, that level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still struggling to explain this change.

"It's not easy to get the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth still corresponds to full employment," San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday. This situation is particularly vulnerable in the event of a new supply shock. If the war with Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market with little buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, the Fed's policy space is also more limited as inflation concerns could erode the certainty of interest rate cuts.