PANews reported on April 4th that the US released its non-farm payrolls report on Friday, showing an increase of 178,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations. Meanwhile, the February data was revised down from an initial estimate of a decrease of 92,000 to a decrease of 133,000. This report provided short-term support for the US dollar against the backdrop of a reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in 2026. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and Trump's script for a swift victory is crumbling. A more crucial test for the market is approaching: the first CPI since the start of the war is about to be released, and inflation is expected to skyrocket. Some are warning that "now is not the time to trade." Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time):
At 22:00 on Monday, the US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released.
At 23:00 on Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release its 1-year inflation forecasts for March.
At 00:35 on Wednesday, Chicago Fed President Goolsby, a 2027 FOMC voting member, will speak on monetary policy.
At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
On Thursday at 20:30, the following data will be released: US initial jobless claims, US February core PCE price index year-on-year, US February personal spending month-on-month, US Q4 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter final reading, US Q4 real personal consumption expenditure quarter-on-quarter final reading, US Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter final reading, and US February core PCE price index month-on-month.
At 20:30 on Friday, the US March unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate/core CPI year-on-year rate and the US March seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate/core CPI month-on-month rate will be released.
At 22:00 on Friday, the preliminary readings of the US April one-year inflation rate, the preliminary reading of the US April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and the US February factory orders month-on-month rate will be released.
