共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

30 articles
Learn how to earn Polymarket LP rewards step by step
This article is specifically written for friends who want to try making money by market making for Polymarket. I will explain from scratch: what kind of markets are suitable for market making, how to place orders to qualify for rewards, and the most common pitfalls in actual operation.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Price spreads exceeding 50% indicate that pre-market arbitrage in crypto stocks is poised to become a new business opportunity in the crypto bear market.
Exploring new entrepreneurial directions in the crypto bear market: the pre-market price spread between crypto and stocks. Analyzing the significant price spreads of popular stocks like Kalshi and Polymarket on platforms such as PreStocks and Jarsy, this study reveals a liquidity bridge and entrepreneurial opportunities connecting crypto and traditional finance.
Odaily星球日报
Turning Stones into Gold: How Did 43 Years of Tennis Data Become a Money-Making Machine for Predictive Markets?
I trained an AI using data from 95,491 sports matches, achieving an accuracy rate of 85%. This article reveals how AI+ELO ratings accurately predict tennis match outcomes.
Bagel 预测市场观察
Prediction Market OpenClaw Practical Guide Part 1: Monitoring, Analysis, and Risk Management
A beginner's guide to predicting the market for shrimp farming, covering everything from environmental setup and analysis to monitoring, and the pitfalls encountered.
Biteye
What is Opinion, the project that's been making headlines lately? A 3-minute guide to understanding this new prediction market project.
Opinion proposes the concept of "Multiplayer Internet," hoping to use market mechanisms to enable dispersed viewpoints to form a priced and verifiable collective consensus on the blockchain.
CoinW研究院专栏
In-depth analysis of PredictFun's acquisition of Probable: BNB's "Eastern ambition" in the prediction market.
Is it still worth participating in BNB Chain's prediction market?
Biteye
Deconstructing 112,000 Polymarket addresses: The top 1% who actually make money are doing these five things.
Why do truly top players never enter the fray when breaking news breaks?
Odaily星球日报
日均成交$2M：如何在Polymarket天气市场“围猎”利润？
这是一份日均 $2M 的 Polymarket 天气赛道研报：揭秘如何利用“短期期权”定价逻辑与执行滞后红利，复刻大神 $13.2 万盈利的“包围网”打法。
Hubble AI
Two companies account for 97% of the market, and transaction volume surges by 1100%: Predicting the reshaping of the market landscape and the next wave of entrepreneurial opportunities.
Bloomberg, consulting firms, and the media are the real competitors in predicting the market, and they are far more than each other.
MetaHub Research
Escalating US-Iran conflict: How can forecasting markets price war risks before oil prices do?
Geopolitics is being financialized in real time, and markets are no longer just passively reacting to events, but are participating in the pricing of risk itself as events unfold.
CoinW研究院专栏
IOSG; Turning Probability into Assets: Predictive Market Agent Outlook
It is predicted that intelligent agents in the market will take early shape in early 2026 and are expected to become an emerging product form in the field of intelligent agents in the coming year.
博闻札记2 authors
Hyperliquid vs Polymarket: How do on-chain exchanges price a crisis?
With renewed conflict in the Middle East, traditional markets are facing a "pricing vacuum" due to weekend closures. Prediction markets and perpetual exchanges have become the only continuously operating price systems globally.
Biteye
Polymarket was responsible for expanding the market, while Opinion Labs was responsible for defining the protocol.
It's true that prediction markets will eventually be ignited by Polymarket and attract a large number of off-exchange incremental users, but Opinion's approach is to define a "protocol layer" logic for a global probabilistic financial infrastructure. This is very Crypto-Native and will definitely be more friendly to the crypto-native market in the short term.
链上观
On-chain tracking of Polymarket's Khamenei betting operations: 521 addresses precisely positioned, a few entities precisely targeted.
Polymarket's prediction market is embroiled in an $81.6 million settlement dispute stemming from Khamenei's resignation contract. PANews tracked 521 suspicious addresses, uncovering insider trading and massive profits, and exploring the challenges of determining wrongdoing and systemic predation in decentralized markets.
Frank
When life becomes odds: Prediction markets are becoming the digital battlefield of postmodern warfare.
The prediction market saw a surge in trading volume, allowing insider players to easily profit millions of dollars.
Foresight News
Primitive Ventures: Predicting the “East-West Divergence” in the Market – Why We Bets on Opinion Labs
The Prediction Market has entered its 2.0 phase. It is no longer a single, winner-takes-all market, but rather two different evolutionary paths shaped by culture.
Primitive Ventures
When even popular video editors can engage in insider trading, Kalshi's fine exposes a dark side of the prediction market.
PANews analysis revealed that in the Polymarket contract for the second season of MrBeast's reality show "Beast Games," the odds of the final champion being won were pushed up to 94% by funds three weeks before the season ended, exhibiting textbook-level insider trading characteristics.
Frank
Less than 1 cent could cripple millions in liquidity; an order attack could deplete Polymarket's liquidity foundation.
A single on-chain transaction of less than $0.10 can instantly wipe market-making orders worth tens of thousands of dollars from Polymarket's order book. This is not a theoretical deduction, but a reality that is happening right now.
Frank
Searching for the "golden key" to predicting the market through 27.73 million transaction data points, yet 690 candlestick strategies still struggle to generate profits.
On social media, you often see people claiming to have discovered a secret to smart money profits, but these claims are often empty rhetoric. What people see are merely the profit curves of these "smart money" investments, not the underlying logic. So how exactly does one construct a personalized trading strategy suitable for predicting the market?
Frank
Is Polymarket rushing to issue cryptocurrency to boost revenue figures? The sports market is opening up to fees, aiming to become the new "money-printing machine" of Web3.
On February 18, 2026, Polymarket announced that starting that day, the platform would pilot a market order fee in the sports marketplace. PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of Polymarket's fee mechanism, revenue model, competitor benchmarks, and expected token airdrop.
Frank