共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

9 articles
Polymarket vs Kalshi: Who is the king of prediction markets?
The prediction market is ushering in its "iPhone moment": two unicorns, each valued at over $10 billion, are jointly leading a new sector with annual transaction volume exceeding $44 billion and an annual growth rate of over 1000%.
Biteye
Less than 1 cent could cripple millions in liquidity; an order attack could deplete Polymarket's liquidity foundation.
A single on-chain transaction of less than $0.10 can instantly wipe market-making orders worth tens of thousands of dollars from Polymarket's order book. This is not a theoretical deduction, but a reality that is happening right now.
Frank
Searching for the "golden key" to predicting the market through 27.73 million transaction data points, yet 690 candlestick strategies still struggle to generate profits.
On social media, you often see people claiming to have discovered a secret to smart money profits, but these claims are often empty rhetoric. What people see are merely the profit curves of these "smart money" investments, not the underlying logic. So how exactly does one construct a personalized trading strategy suitable for predicting the market?
Frank
Is Polymarket rushing to issue cryptocurrency to boost revenue figures? The sports market is opening up to fees, aiming to become the new "money-printing machine" of Web3.
On February 18, 2026, Polymarket announced that starting that day, the platform would pilot a market order fee in the sports marketplace. PANews conducted an in-depth analysis of Polymarket's fee mechanism, revenue model, competitor benchmarks, and expected token airdrop.
Frank
A 15-minute game of wins and losses: Millions of transaction records unveil the "folded world" of the Bitcoin prediction market.
In the world of cryptocurrency, what can happen in 15 minutes? For most people, it's just the formation of a candlestick chart; but for participants in the Bitcoin short-term prediction market, it often means "a game of life or death."
Frank
With an actual win rate of only 60%, data reveals the truth behind ICO predictions on Polymarket.
Polymarket's token sale prediction market analysis reveals: 100% accuracy is misleading, with only 66.7% of predictions being accurate; the market is systematically overly optimistic; high trading volume is a contrarian signal; and conservative predictions perform better.
Frank
Deep Dive into 290,000 Market Data Points: Revealing 6 Truths About Polymarket Liquidity
Deep Dive into 290,000 Market Data Points: Revealing 6 Truths About Polymarket Liquidity
Frank
In-depth analysis of 27,000 trades by Polymarket's top ten whales: The illusion of "smart money's" winning rate and the real rules of survival.
While many of these "smart money" investors employ hedging and arbitrage strategies in their actual operations, this hedging differs significantly from the simplistic hedging strategies interpreted on social media. The actual strategies are far more complex, going beyond simple "yes" or "no" combinations. They leverage rules like "over/under" and "win/loss" in sports events to create combined hedging combinations. Another important finding is that behind the remarkably high historical win rates lies a large number of unclosed "zombie orders" held by these whales, masking the true win rate, which is far lower than the historical average.
Frank
Gambling or Cognitive Monetization? Deconstructing the Smart Money Path and Eleven Arbitrage Strategies in the Prediction Market
Recently, the prediction market has emerged as a dark horse, not only because of its independent performance in volatile market conditions, but also because of the series of high-return "smart money" strategies that have emerged behind it, making it widely regarded as one of the most promising sectors in 2026.
Frank
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