共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

78 articles
Polymarket 值 200 亿，那 Robinhood 的预测市场呢？
Robinhood 的预测市场业务：从 Kalshi 分发渠道到自建 Rothera 基础设施，一路"逆流而上"，也逐步成为资本市场新焦点。并对比三家战略差异，揭示Robinhood 以交易获客、沉淀长期财富关系的 Financial Super App 野心。
Hash Global Research
如何在预测市场里，精准锁定“聪明钱”？
PolymarketScan 使用指南：像交易 Meme 币一样交易预测市场，过滤噪声、跟踪聪明钱、建立观察列表，提高你的胜率。
金色财经
Polymarket 的“野蛮生长”——在欺诈与合规边缘的豪赌
Polymarket 欺诈案惊人内幕：80%交易涉盗刷，CEO为增长无视合规，10亿美元融资背后隐患浮现。
华尔街日报
Kalshi数据造假风波：一场被质疑的“合规刷量”赌局
Kalshi 被指伪造加密成交量，永续合约换手率异常引争议，预测市场数据统计口径遭质疑，合规刷量赌局背后真相待解。
Foresight News
4 executives in 1 month: What is Polymarket, amid its rapid leadership reshuffle, anxious about?
Polymarket poached 4 executives in a month, yet trading volume plunged 40% in two months. Former Zora CEO joins to lead DeFi — what is it plotting?
链捕手 ChainCatcher
Traffic Overload! Solana Prediction Platform World Encounters a 'Good Problem to Have' on First Day of Launch
On the launch day of the Solana-based prediction market World's standalone site, traffic was overloaded, with maximum trading rewards of approximately $500, expanding the use cases for Phantom's stablecoin CASH.
Foresight News
Polymarket Report for the First Half of 2026: High-Frequency Traders or Super Forecasters?
If you only look at trading volume, Polymarket's first half of the year resembles a platform battle; but when you put together wallets, market categories, and settlement results, the story becomes more like a division of labor: Polymarket's U.S. market is growing rapidly, sports and crypto markets enable fast capital flow, and retail users bear most of the profit and loss fluctuations.
Surf
当 Polymarket 们等走向「幕后」：预测市场的下半场，在交易所之外？
Probabilities no longer belong to a single platform; the aggregation, derivatives, and smart execution infrastructure around them are taking shape.
Web3 农民 Frank
预测市场掘金者：从争夺交易入口，到争夺结果定义权
预测市场的前端竞争已经拥挤，下一轮增量可能在后台：解释规则、验证证据、确认结果、触发支付。HR的回归模型显示，0.487% 的争议市场承载了 8.64% 的最终名义成交额，语义等价的跨平台合约之间仍有 2%—4% 的持续价差，但浅盘口把可投入资金压得很小。Heretic Research 第 03 期，带你深入预测市场下半场的产业机会。
Heretic Research深度研究
专访Kalshi CEO：从体育到政治，试图用金钱激励机制来定义“真相”
200人团队年交易量达1780亿美元，估值220亿美元；体育交易占近三分之二，与Polymarket分歧何在？特朗普家族关联、扎克伯格入场，监管与内幕交易风险并存，预测市场将走向何方？
New York Times Crypto
Tiger Research：深入亚洲预测市场监管空白
预测市场全球年交易量预计超过两千亿美元，但亚洲仍陷监管真空。监管空白不是文化问题，而是制度设计缺失。
Tiger Research
跨界难，预测市场和Perp DEX龙头都没复制出第二个自己
预测市场与Perp DEX跨界融合遇冷，Hyperliquid活跃市场缩水85%，Polymarket永续合约日交易不足2000万美元，Kalshi交易量骤降80%。用户习惯与流动性难复制，守住主场比扩张更重要。
Odaily星球日报
Hyperliquid to Launch HIP-4: Will Outcome Markets Become the Next Growth Engine?
On July 20, Hyperliquid announced the latest plan for HIP-4 (Outcome Markets), planning to support permissionless deployment of outcome markets in future network upgrades, and will first launch on the testnet before rolling out to the mainnet.
CryptoPulse
How to Play Event Contracts? A Comparison of 4 Popular Platforms
Event contracts transform a future outcome into a contract with clear terms that can be traded and settled according to rules. Products can revolve around major events, economic data, sports matches, weather, or crypto asset prices. When evaluating platforms, focus on six key aspects: contract question, quotation method, expiration time, early exit possibility, settlement data source, and fees.
MetaHub Research
Prediction Market's "MEV Moment": Betting on Swings or Creating Swings
This report deeply analyzes the market structure of rapid settlement contracts on the two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Surf
After burning $90 billion, Zuckerberg decides to open a casino where you can't gamble
After Meta burned $90 billion on a failed metaverse, it chose a points-based 'prediction market' as its next adventure — but a prediction market where you can't spend real money is neither a lesson learned nor a clever strategic pivot, but a scalded company looking for a cup of warm water.
Max.S
Coding 的投注面板赚钱了，但 Polymarket 真不是个「套利」的好地方
半个多月，1600 刀，30%+ 收益，但这篇文章想说的，不是怎么赚钱。
Tyler Web3
Polymarket's Sixth Anniversary: Bathrooms, Exile, and Homecoming
From founding in a bathroom to becoming a global prediction market leader, enduring CFTC penalties and an FBI raid, then exploding with the U.S. election and acquiring a license to return to America. How a crypto product stands at the intersection of finance and regulation.
区块律动BlockBeats
世界杯狂欢，预测市场上桌：Polymarket 们如何撕开大众化口子？
世界杯提供了最天然的大众场景，钱包也可能从资产入口，进一步走向事件参与入口。
imToken
Robinhood, the first stock in the prediction market concept.
After demonstrating the enormous potential of the prediction market business through Kalshi, Robinhood, once a traffic channel, was no longer content with just earning a share.
Odaily星球日报