共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

70 articles
预测市场掘金者：从争夺交易入口，到争夺结果定义权
预测市场的前端竞争已经拥挤，下一轮增量可能在后台：解释规则、验证证据、确认结果、触发支付。HR的回归模型显示，0.487% 的争议市场承载了 8.64% 的最终名义成交额，语义等价的跨平台合约之间仍有 2%—4% 的持续价差，但浅盘口把可投入资金压得很小。Heretic Research 第 03 期，带你深入预测市场下半场的产业机会。
Heretic Research深度研究
专访Kalshi CEO：从体育到政治，试图用金钱激励机制来定义“真相”
200人团队年交易量达1780亿美元，估值220亿美元；体育交易占近三分之二，与Polymarket分歧何在？特朗普家族关联、扎克伯格入场，监管与内幕交易风险并存，预测市场将走向何方？
New York Times Crypto
Tiger Research：深入亚洲预测市场监管空白
预测市场全球年交易量预计超过两千亿美元，但亚洲仍陷监管真空。监管空白不是文化问题，而是制度设计缺失。
Tiger Research
跨界难，预测市场和Perp DEX龙头都没复制出第二个自己
预测市场与Perp DEX跨界融合遇冷，Hyperliquid活跃市场缩水85%，Polymarket永续合约日交易不足2000万美元，Kalshi交易量骤降80%。用户习惯与流动性难复制，守住主场比扩张更重要。
Odaily星球日报
Hyperliquid to Launch HIP-4: Will Outcome Markets Become the Next Growth Engine?
On July 20, Hyperliquid announced the latest plan for HIP-4 (Outcome Markets), planning to support permissionless deployment of outcome markets in future network upgrades, and will first launch on the testnet before rolling out to the mainnet.
CryptoPulse
How to Play Event Contracts? A Comparison of 4 Popular Platforms
Event contracts transform a future outcome into a contract with clear terms that can be traded and settled according to rules. Products can revolve around major events, economic data, sports matches, weather, or crypto asset prices. When evaluating platforms, focus on six key aspects: contract question, quotation method, expiration time, early exit possibility, settlement data source, and fees.
MetaHub Research
Prediction Market's "MEV Moment": Betting on Swings or Creating Swings
This report deeply analyzes the market structure of rapid settlement contracts on the two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Surf
After burning $90 billion, Zuckerberg decides to open a casino where you can't gamble
After Meta burned $90 billion on a failed metaverse, it chose a points-based 'prediction market' as its next adventure — but a prediction market where you can't spend real money is neither a lesson learned nor a clever strategic pivot, but a scalded company looking for a cup of warm water.
Max.S
Coding 的投注面板赚钱了，但 Polymarket 真不是个「套利」的好地方
半个多月，1600 刀，30%+ 收益，但这篇文章想说的，不是怎么赚钱。
Tyler Web3
Polymarket's Sixth Anniversary: Bathrooms, Exile, and Homecoming
From founding in a bathroom to becoming a global prediction market leader, enduring CFTC penalties and an FBI raid, then exploding with the U.S. election and acquiring a license to return to America. How a crypto product stands at the intersection of finance and regulation.
区块律动BlockBeats
世界杯狂欢，预测市场上桌：Polymarket 们如何撕开大众化口子？
世界杯提供了最天然的大众场景，钱包也可能从资产入口，进一步走向事件参与入口。
imToken
Robinhood, the first stock in the prediction market concept.
After demonstrating the enormous potential of the prediction market business through Kalshi, Robinhood, once a traffic channel, was no longer content with just earning a share.
Odaily星球日报
A shocking upset at the World Cup! A Polymarket player lost $1 million.
Spain drew with Cape Verde, and Polymarket traders who bet on a Spanish victory lost nearly $1 million.
华尔街见闻
加密预测市场发展史：精英陨、双雄现与百家鸣
从爱荷华电子市场到 Intrade、Augur、Gnosis、Kalshi、Polymarket，再到 Predict.fun、Opinion.trade 与 42.space，梳理加密预测市场从学术实验到合规金融、链上博弈与全域竞争的演进脉络。
黑色马里奥
开赛日的链上现场：20亿美元已经押下，链上合约怎么知道谁赢了
世界杯开赛日，预测市场两个冠军合约相加破 20 亿、Kraken 成 FIFA 官方加密赞助商。本文拆解三种成交量口径、逐场合约怎么随赛果运转、UMA 与 Chainlink 两种预言机范式、以及这几十亿里有多少是真的。
币贝研究院
开赛前夜的链上数字：世界杯还没开踢，已经成交了 16 亿
光是 Polymarket 一个平台的「世界杯冠军」合约，累计成交已约 16 亿美元——而世界杯一场都还没踢。七期之后，开赛前夜的链上快照。
币贝研究院
价格里的概率：世界杯赔率是怎么算出来的
预测市场 vs Opta超算，法国17%与西班牙16.1%如何诞生？揭秘价格背后的流动性、偏差与监管影响。
币贝研究院
预测市场“无人区”：3 个聪明钱地址如何靠体育市场悄悄卷走 700 万美金？
随着 2026 年六月世界杯的临近，体育版块的交易流动性注定将创下历史新高。为了备战这场超级战役，为了看清这些‘聪明钱’的底牌，AI 预测市场 Senal 调取并清洗了这三个地址的 10,058 条链上原始记录，完整还原了他们的交易路径与底层策略。
Senal
a16z: Why is it important to predict the market?
How do prediction markets leverage blockchain technology to aggregate collective wisdom? a16z explains its operating mechanism and core advantages, taking you deeper into understanding this important tool for predicting the future.
a16z
Is the prediction market a cash cow? A deep dive into its profit model.
The market doesn't sell answers, but rather "disagreements." The greater the disagreement, the stronger the trading impulse, and the higher the transaction fee revenue.
Biteye