共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

共识博弈：预测市场的策略研究

探讨预测市场前沿趋势，拆解热门事件的交易策略。本专题涵盖宏观数据分析、平台机制解析与硬核实战案例，旨在帮助读者理解群体智慧与概率博弈，提升在各类预测市场中的决策精准度与风险管理能力。

64 articles
Prediction Market's "MEV Moment": Betting on Swings or Creating Swings
This report deeply analyzes the market structure of rapid settlement contracts on the two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket.
Surf
After burning $90 billion, Zuckerberg decides to open a casino where you can't gamble
After Meta burned $90 billion on a failed metaverse, it chose a points-based 'prediction market' as its next adventure — but a prediction market where you can't spend real money is neither a lesson learned nor a clever strategic pivot, but a scalded company looking for a cup of warm water.
Max.S
Coding 的投注面板赚钱了，但 Polymarket 真不是个「套利」的好地方
半个多月，1600 刀，30%+ 收益，但这篇文章想说的，不是怎么赚钱。
Tyler Web3
Polymarket's Sixth Anniversary: Bathrooms, Exile, and Homecoming
From founding in a bathroom to becoming a global prediction market leader, enduring CFTC penalties and an FBI raid, then exploding with the U.S. election and acquiring a license to return to America. How a crypto product stands at the intersection of finance and regulation.
区块律动BlockBeats
世界杯狂欢，预测市场上桌：Polymarket 们如何撕开大众化口子？
世界杯提供了最天然的大众场景，钱包也可能从资产入口，进一步走向事件参与入口。
imToken
Robinhood, the first stock in the prediction market concept.
After demonstrating the enormous potential of the prediction market business through Kalshi, Robinhood, once a traffic channel, was no longer content with just earning a share.
Odaily星球日报
A shocking upset at the World Cup! A Polymarket player lost $1 million.
Spain drew with Cape Verde, and Polymarket traders who bet on a Spanish victory lost nearly $1 million.
华尔街见闻
加密预测市场发展史：精英陨、双雄现与百家鸣
从爱荷华电子市场到 Intrade、Augur、Gnosis、Kalshi、Polymarket，再到 Predict.fun、Opinion.trade 与 42.space，梳理加密预测市场从学术实验到合规金融、链上博弈与全域竞争的演进脉络。
黑色马里奥
开赛日的链上现场：20亿美元已经押下，链上合约怎么知道谁赢了
世界杯开赛日，预测市场两个冠军合约相加破 20 亿、Kraken 成 FIFA 官方加密赞助商。本文拆解三种成交量口径、逐场合约怎么随赛果运转、UMA 与 Chainlink 两种预言机范式、以及这几十亿里有多少是真的。
币贝研究院
开赛前夜的链上数字：世界杯还没开踢，已经成交了 16 亿
光是 Polymarket 一个平台的「世界杯冠军」合约，累计成交已约 16 亿美元——而世界杯一场都还没踢。七期之后，开赛前夜的链上快照。
币贝研究院
价格里的概率：世界杯赔率是怎么算出来的
预测市场 vs Opta超算，法国17%与西班牙16.1%如何诞生？揭秘价格背后的流动性、偏差与监管影响。
币贝研究院
预测市场“无人区”：3 个聪明钱地址如何靠体育市场悄悄卷走 700 万美金？
随着 2026 年六月世界杯的临近，体育版块的交易流动性注定将创下历史新高。为了备战这场超级战役，为了看清这些‘聪明钱’的底牌，AI 预测市场 Senal 调取并清洗了这三个地址的 10,058 条链上原始记录，完整还原了他们的交易路径与底层策略。
Senal
a16z: Why is it important to predict the market?
How do prediction markets leverage blockchain technology to aggregate collective wisdom? a16z explains its operating mechanism and core advantages, taking you deeper into understanding this important tool for predicting the future.
a16z
Is the prediction market a cash cow? A deep dive into its profit model.
The market doesn't sell answers, but rather "disagreements." The greater the disagreement, the stronger the trading impulse, and the higher the transaction fee revenue.
Biteye
Hyperliquid's next piece of the puzzle: HIP-4 turns hedging into a liquidity engine.
Hyperliquid HIP-4 launched on Outcome Market, predicting a paradigm clash between Polymarket and Hyperliquid amid market liquidity challenges.
佐爷歪脖山
A Polymarket survey reveals that 67% of profits go to 0.1% of accounts, leaving ordinary people with virtually no chance.
Retail investors continue to lose money on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, while professional traders devour funds, resulting in a high concentration of wealth. Are you ready to face the truth?
华尔街日报
Polymarket may abandon its blockchain and go solo, sounding alarm bells for Polygon, as public blockchains collectively enter the fray to attract users.
Recently, news has resurfaced that Polymarket is migrating away from Polygon. Faced with the massive user base of this phenomenal application, multiple public blockchains are vying for its users. Polygon has yet to respond positively to this potential "solo" plan.
Nancy
What exactly is the background of 5(c) Capital, which received investment from both Polymarket and Kalshi CEO?
When arch-rivals start betting together: the real signal behind 5(c) Capital.
Anita
This US soldier who profited $400,000 by exploiting military secrets on Polymarket may spend the rest of his life in prison.
A U.S. special forces sergeant major used classified intelligence to predict Maduro's downfall on Polymarket, investing $33,000 and netting $400,000. This marks the first time the U.S. Department of Justice has indicted a man for insider trading in a prediction market, who faces up to 60 years in prison.
哔哔News
A hair dryer "blew" $34,000 away from Polymarket.
A physical oracle attack that manipulated temperature sensors at Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport led to the arbitrage of a $34,000 prize on Polymarket.
区块律动BlockBeats