Author: Bao Yilong , Wall Street Insights
Cape Verde's draw with Spain in the World Cup group stage resulted in a loss of nearly $1 million for a prediction market trader.
In the early hours of June 16th, Beijing time, in the first round of Group H matches of the 2026 USA-Canadian Cup, Cape Verde, making its first appearance in the World Cup finals and with a total squad value of less than 55 million euros, held Spain, ranked second in the world and a favorite to win the title with a total squad value of 1.22 billion euros, to a 0-0 draw.
This result completely disrupted the odds landscape of the prediction market and caused significant losses for several traders who had heavily bet on Spain. Polymarket data shows that one trader lost nearly a million dollars betting on Spain to win.
A million-dollar bet: The strategy of trading "certainty" for low returns fails.
According to Polymarket's public trading records, a trader with the username "betoor619" established a large long position of nearly $1.1 million in Spain when the win rate was approximately 92%.
Changes in the win rate curve for the Spain vs. Cape Verde match on Polymarket.
If Spain wins, the user expects to earn only about $85,000. This is a typical "low-risk, low-return" strategy: betting on a high-probability event in exchange for a small, stable return on a large principal.
But in the end, the user lost nearly $1 million.
Records show that the account was opened last October and had never made more than $9,000 in profit or loss on a single event before. This bet is more than a hundred times larger than its historical record.
Other traders also placed large bets on Spain to win, but most of them also executed hedging trades, which offset their losses to some extent.
Polymarkets allow large traders to act as market makers, holding both long and short positions in the same bet, similar to how Wall Street institutions profit from price differences by buying and selling the same stock.
Behind the upset, Cape Verde's 40-year-old goalkeeper turned the tide.
Spain was widely considered the favorite to win this World Cup.
Wall Street Insights noted that Goldman Sachs' model gave Cape Verde a 25% chance of winning, the highest among all participating teams. Furthermore, Cape Verde is not only making its World Cup debut, but also has no well-known professional players in its squad.
The key figure in turning the tide was goalkeeper Josimar José Évora Dias, nicknamed Vozinha. The 40-year-old veteran made seven crucial saves during the match and walked off the pitch in tears afterward, winning the Man of the Match award.
Vozinha stated after the match that visa issues prevented his mother from witnessing this historic moment. According to regulations, visitors from certain countries, including Cape Verde, are required to pay a refundable deposit of up to $15,000. He described this match as the goal he had strived for throughout his "entire career."
This draw was one of the many upsets in the first few days of this World Cup, after Japan staged a comeback on Sunday, equalizing against the Netherlands in stoppage time.
Platform Expansion: The Mainstream Path from Political Betting to Sports Betting
Prediction market platforms such as Polymarket have rapidly moved beyond their niche markets in recent years. Previously known primarily as betting tools for geopolitical and economic events, they have now become popular betting platforms for major global sporting events such as the World Cup.
The platform allows users to trade through cryptocurrency wallets, enabling them to operate with anonymous accounts without disclosing their real identities or locations. This mechanism has drawn criticism from some legislators, who argue that the platform fails to collect necessary user background information like traditional brokers or gambling companies.
The publicly available transaction records also provide a window into the sheer scale and high risk of betting by users during the games. In Monday's match against Spain alone, Polymarket users wagered a total of $64 million.
