PANews reported on April 5th that Garrett Jin, an agent for "1011 Insider Whale," published an article titled "Oil is the War," pointing out that the current Middle East conflict is escalating, and the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz may last much longer than market expectations. Rising oil prices are not only a consequence but also a core variable in this round of conflict. As the situation shifts from airstrikes to ground operations, the conflict may evolve into a protracted war of attrition. Iran does not need to win; simply increasing the cost of war will force its adversaries to seek withdrawal. Against this backdrop, the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to resume navigation quickly, and crude oil supply remains constrained. In terms of price, WTI crude oil has recently been unusually higher than Brent crude, reflecting a reshaping of the global supply and demand structure and a shift in Asian buying towards US crude oil. Analysts believe this is not only due to short-term contract factors but also a signal of an overall upward shift in the global crude oil pricing curve.

Garrett Jin predicts that, under the baseline scenario, oil prices may remain in the $120-$150 range, and could even rise to $200 if the conflict continues for a longer period. He emphasizes that while the market has already priced in the conflict itself, it has not yet fully priced in the risk of a "protracted conflict." Oil prices will become a core variable affecting interest rates, exchange rates, stock markets, and the cryptocurrency market. If a full-scale ground war breaks out and there is no quick victory, global assets may face a chain reaction of repricing.