Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
The two-week ceasefire agreement reached between the United States and Iran has temporarily eased market turmoil caused by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. U.S. stock futures surged in response , with Dow Jones futures jumping approximately 2.42%, Nasdaq futures soaring 3.31%, and S&P 500 futures climbing 2.64%.
The Asia-Pacific markets erupted in celebration, with South Korea's Kospi index surging 6.87% to break through 5919 points. The surge in futures even triggered a temporary circuit breaker in algorithmic trading. Japan's Nikkei 225 index jumped 5.39% to 56424 points, while China's A-shares saw the Shenzhen Component Index rise over 3%, the ChiNext Index gain 3.73%, and the Shanghai Composite Index climb 1.47%. The offshore yuan also surged over 300 points to a three-year high of 6.8244.
According to Ayako Sera, a strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, although market sentiment is high, the Nikkei index will find it difficult to hold above 60,000 points until a permanent ceasefire is achieved.
Ha SeokKeun, chief investment officer of Eugene Asset Management, stated that the easing of the energy shock signifies that the market is moving from the war discounting phase towards normalization.
The crucial turning point is set for April 10th . At that time, Iran and the United States will formally launch two weeks of political negotiations in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, attempting to consolidate the ceasefire through diplomatic means.
Safe-haven assets and commodities experienced an epic sell-off. Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices plummeted by over 10% , nearly falling below $90. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar warned that oil prices could fall further as details of the ceasefire are revealed.
Meanwhile, spot gold bucked the trend, rising over 3% to break through $4,857, while silver surged over 6% to $77. Pepperstone strategist Ahmad Assiri pointed out that the current ceasefire window remains fragile, and any sign of a break could reignite sharp market volatility.
AI and the Stock Market
With macroeconomic risks plummeting, the technology and AI sectors have seen a retaliatory rebound, with a large influx of funds into these high-beta assets, attempting to seize the high ground at the first sign of a reversal in sentiment.
IG market analyst Fabien Yip pointed out that this is a typical subconscious reaction, with the worst-performing tech stocks naturally becoming the vanguard of the rebound.
Japanese and South Korean semiconductor giants emerged as the biggest winners of this financial feast. Samsung Electronics surged over 8%, SK Hynix soared 14%, and Advantest also jumped over 9%.
Hiroyuki Ueno, chief strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management, said that Japanese technology and AI stocks are currently very attractive for buying, but investors should remain wary of potential future volatility.
Bitcoin price
The easing of geopolitical tensions became the ultimate trigger for the surge in Bitcoin bullish sentiment. Bitcoin surged over 5%, breaking through $72,000 once again. This sudden rally triggered the most severe short-selling liquidations since early March, with a total liquidation amount of $601 million across the network, of which short positions lost over $423 million. Binance even saw a massive liquidation of $11.79 million. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows that long-term investors' Bitcoin balances have exceeded 4.37 million, and the network activity index has returned to a "bull market phase," with Bitcoin rapidly shifting towards steadfast holders.
Bearish view
The core logic of the bears lies in the overbought divergence in the technicals and the unsustainability of macro sentiment. They believe that the current rebound is just a bull trap and that the gap below still has a huge attraction.
Trader Killa explicitly stated that he closed his short position after Bitcoin rose 7%, but emphasized that the market is still range-bound and there is a high probability that it will fill the CME gap at $67,000. Bitcoin may take several months to fully bottom out, and he has already begun accumulating Bitcoin and looking for long-term entry opportunities on higher timeframes. If key support levels fail to hold, the price of Bitcoin could further decline to the $64-$65 range.
Analyst LP warns that a long-term decline in the Coinbase premium index often indicates a local top, and if the price sweeps past the $76,000 high, it will be an excellent area to short.
According to Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, the market is in a "late-stage panic" phase, and a final shakeout to $54,000 is highly likely within the next five months.
Trader Michaël Van de Poppe believes that from a technical perspective, the market is more likely to reverse downwards, using the lows to generate liquidity.
bullish view
The bulls firmly believe that market sentiment has stabilized, and the healthy on-chain profit data and the breakthrough of key resistance levels indicate that a larger-scale upward trend is about to begin.
Analyst Murphy pointed out that when Bitcoin rebounded to $72,000, the average 24-hour profit was much lower than before, indicating that profit-takers were no longer in a hurry to cash out, and the market was anticipating even greater upside potential.
Trader Sykodelic emphasized that Bitcoin's return to the 50-day exponential moving average is a very strong bullish signal, and once the weekly close holds above $74,400, the price will target even higher levels.
Market maker Wintermute believes that Bitcoin's ability to hold the $67,000 support level despite extreme bearish sentiment is the best proof of strong institutional demand.
Ethereum price quotes
Ethereum also performed impressively in this rebound, with a single-day gain exceeding 7%, driven primarily by the strong recovery in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant data shows that Ethereum's net buy orders have remained positive since early March, surging to $104 million at one point, while open interest in futures contracts climbed to 6.4 million, approaching its all-time high. Simultaneously, spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $120 million, with Wall Street funds re-entering the market and injecting strong momentum into the bulls. Furthermore, the distribution of tokens shows that over 3.5 million Ethereum changed hands around $2,000, a level that has become a key support level determining the future direction of the market.
Some analysts believe that the fragility of Ethereum's key support levels could trigger a panic sell-off. Analyst Ted Pillows warned that if Ethereum breaks below the $2,000 support zone, the price could quickly hit a new low for the year. Once the final defense line of $1,750 to $1,800 is breached, Ethereum may fall towards the symmetrical triangle target of $1,460.
Bulls believe that the structural shift in the derivatives market and persistent buying pressure support a trend reversal. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost points out that buying pressure is currently dominant, marking the first significant "state shift" in the Ethereum derivatives market since the last bear market. Analyst Ted Pillows states that if the $2,000 support level holds, Ethereum is expected to break upwards again and return to its upward trend.
Market Dynamics
Following the release of CZ's new book today, the market capitalization of the eponymous Meme coin, Freedom of Money, which broke its all-time high of $22 million yesterday, has reversed course and fallen to around $19.7 million. While the altcoin market has seen a long-awaited rally as Bitcoin has stabilized, only DEXE, Siren, JUST, Canton, ADI, and MemeCore among the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization are experiencing declines. Amid a nearly $600 million liquidation wave, on-chain WTI crude oil (CL) and on-chain Brent crude oil (BRENTOIL) trading saw nearly $80 million in liquidations. ZEC, the most popular altcoin traded in the past 24 hours, only contributed $12.84 million in liquidations despite gaining over 20%.
On the other hand, the price of AAVE 's token fell to around $85 yesterday, a 75% drop from its all-time high, but has since rebounded to $95 along with Bitcoin's rise. The plunge was attributed to escalating internal governance disputes, with core contributing teams Chaos Labs and BGD Labs announcing their withdrawal due to serious disagreements over Aave Labs' centralized tendencies and API fee distribution.
Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, April 8)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: -$159 million
Ethereum ETF: -$64.6704 million
Fear of Greed Index: 17 (Extreme Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, RED, SOL
Sector Performance: Cryptocurrency stocks generally rose, with AI stocks leading the gains at over 6%.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 120,731 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $601 million, including $246 million in BTC liquidations, $126 million in ETH liquidations, and $42.93 million in CL liquidations.
Today's Outlook
Binance Futures will delist several perpetual contracts, including OLUSDT, from April 8th to 9th.
CoinList will support OneFootball's TGE token offering on April 9th.
Movement (MOVE) will unlock approximately 164 million tokens on April 9th, worth approximately $290 million.
NATO Secretary General will travel to the United States from April 8-12 to meet with President Trump.
The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting (April 9, 02:00).
US Q4 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Final Reading: Previous 0.7%, Expected 0.7% (April 9, 20:30)
US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 (in thousands): Previous 21,000, expected 203,000 (April 9, 20:30)
US February core PCE price index year-on-year: previous value 3%, expected 3.1% (April 9, 20:30)
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Zcash up 23.3%, Rain up 20.7%, LayerZero up 15.2%, Ethena up 13.7%, and Internet Computer up 12.2%.
