PANews reported on April 10th that Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the crypto market was at a critical juncture on April 10th, with "inflation expectations once again dominating pricing." With the fragile ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran taking effect, the geopolitical conflict has shifted from a direct impact to a delayed inflationary transmission, and the market focus has quickly turned to energy price-driven inflation risks. Brent crude oil has risen by approximately 60% this year, and this change is gradually being transmitted to the interest rate market through CPI expectations, becoming a core variable in current global asset pricing.
The US Treasury market has already seen a defensive adjustment, with traders continuously increasing their option positions to hedge against rising yields. The overall positioning structure indicates that market confidence in a continued decline in interest rates is weakening. Coupled with the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, which temporarily eased growth risks, the question of whether inflation will rebound has become a key variable determining the path of monetary policy. For the crypto market, the narrative of "interest rate cuts + loose liquidity" that previously supported the synchronized rise of BTC and gold is being recalibrated by "high inflation + sticky interest rates." If Friday's CPI data, as expected, records the largest monthly increase since 2022, the expectation of an interest rate cut this year may be further revised downwards. The current probability of a rate cut, currently only around 30%, still has room to narrow. This will directly suppress high-beta altcoins and limit the upward slope of BTC, causing the market to enter a period of high-level consolidation or even a phase of correction.
However, this pressure is more likely to cause short-term pricing disturbances than a trend reversal. On the one hand, the US fiscal and quasi-fiscal system continues to maintain credit expansion through shadow liquidity; on the other hand, rising energy prices are weakening the purchasing power of fiat currency and strengthening the logic of "inflation-resistant assets." The medium-term pricing center of BTC still has the basis to move upward, and short-term pressure is more likely to manifest as consolidation rather than a downward trend.
From a market observation perspective, the core focus at this stage is not on chasing breakthroughs, but on maintaining resilience amidst uncertainty. If CPI rises more than expected, attention should be paid to whether a rapid liquidity crunch will create oversold opportunities; if inflation is lower than expected, it may trigger a short-term rebound in risk assets. Overall, the crypto market is currently in a typical phase of "macroeconomic factors suppressing short-term prices, while liquidity supports the medium-term trend," and a clearer direction still requires further clarification of the inflation path.
