Analysis: The US inflation structure is showing significant divergence, and prolonged geopolitical conflicts may force the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate hikes.

PANews reported on April 12 that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost published an article on the X platform pointing out that, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the current inflation structure in the United States has become clearer. Although the March CPI saw its largest month-on-month increase since 2022, the core CPI remained relatively stable, indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet fully spread. This trend still needs to be observed in conjunction with subsequent PCE data and performance in the coming months.

If this structure continues, it means that inflation has not yet become systematically embedded in the US economy, but rather manifests as a phased phenomenon, most likely related to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate and become protracted, inflation may gradually evolve into a systemic risk, thereby dragging down economic growth. At that point, the Federal Reserve may have to resort to continuing interest rate hikes to address the situation.

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Author: PA一线

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