Today's News Highlights
1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The Middle East situation has once again plunged into a black hole of uncertainty, and the US stock market is entering earnings season.
2. US-Iran negotiations end without an agreement.
3. WLFI CEO: The author of the satirical article is unrelated to the team, and the content is inconsistent with basic facts.
4. Argentina includes cryptocurrencies in the net asset category for qualified investors.
5. CME Bitcoin futures activity fell to a 14-month low, with institutional demand cooling significantly.
6. Maggie's winning streak was ended, resulting in a loss of $192,000 from closing out his long Bitcoin positions.
Regulation & Macro
According to Jinshi, the dramatic shift in geopolitical sentiment this week caused significant volatility in the energy and metals markets. For most of the week, the dominant narrative was the dissipation of panic following the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Crude oil became the biggest victim of this de-escalation narrative. Gold also felt pressure, retreating after breaking through $4850. The US dollar index fell below 100 this week, while US stocks recovered strongly following the ceasefire news. The following are key points to watch in the market this week (all times are Beijing time):
- At 20:30 on Tuesday, the US March PPI year-on-year rate and the US March PPI month-on-month rate will be released.
- At 1:00 AM on Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker, Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, and Fed Governor Barr participated in a fireside chat at the Fed Board's working forum.
- At 00:45 on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered the opening remarks for a working forum hosted by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- At 04:30 on Wednesday, the API crude oil inventory data for the week ending April 10 will be released.
- Eurozone February industrial production month-on-month rate at 17:00 on Wednesday.
- At 1:40 AM on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman delivered a speech at the Institute of International Finance Forum.
- The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions at 02:00 on Thursday.
- Eurozone March CPI data will be released at 17:00 on Thursday.
- At 8:30 PM on Thursday, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April will be released.
- At 21:15 on Thursday, the US March industrial production month-on-month rate will be released.
- Thursday is tentative; the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its March 19 policy meeting.
- Thursday, TBD, G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting to be held
Compared to previous weeks, next week's data calendar appears relatively light. Furthermore, next week marks the official start of the Q1 2026 earnings season for US stocks, with major banks such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley leading the way with their earnings reports, followed by BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson. Subsequently, tech giants like TSMC, ASML, and Netflix will release their data.
US-Iran negotiations end without agreement.
According to Jinshi News, US Vice President Vance held a press conference at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Vance stated that the US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement, and significant differences remain between the two sides. Vance said that after approximately 21 hours of negotiations, the US and Iran still had not reached an agreement. The two sides had held several rounds of "substantive discussions," but ultimately failed to achieve any results.
He pointed out that the US had clearly stated its "red lines" and acceptable and unacceptable conditions, while Iran "chose not to accept these terms." Vance stated that the core reason for the failure of the US-Iran negotiations to reach an agreement was Iran's lack of a clear commitment to abandoning the development of nuclear weapons. Vance noted that the US demanded that Iran not only refrain from developing nuclear weapons currently, but also commit to not acquiring related capabilities and technologies in the long term, but "no such clear willingness has been seen yet." He emphasized that this goal was a core demand of US President Trump in the negotiations. Regarding the details of the negotiations, Vance stated that he would not disclose the specific content, but reiterated that the nuclear issue was one of the key points of contention.
US Vice President Vance: Will return to the United States; has presented a "final solution" to Iran.
According to a report by Cailian Press, US Vice President Vance stated at a press conference that the negotiations between the US and Iran failed to reach an agreement, and his US negotiating delegation would return home. Vance stated that the US had demonstrated "considerable flexibility and sincerity" in the negotiations and clearly outlined "acceptable and unacceptable conditions," but Iran "chose not to accept them." Vance also revealed that during the approximately 21 hours of negotiations, the US delegation maintained communication with President Trump and his national security team and had presented Iran with a "final offer," awaiting a response.
The European Central Bank supports the EU's centralized financial supervision plan.
According to Reuters, the European Central Bank (ECB) has approved the European Commission's plan to better integrate EU capital markets through joint supervision. The plan proposes transferring regulatory authority over major trading venues, central counterparties, central securities depositories, and crypto asset service providers from national authorities to the Paris-based European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). The ECB warned that the ESMA must be adequately staffed and funded and recommended a phased transition.
Morgan Stanley plans to explore tokenization and tax solutions in the crypto space.
In an interview, Amy Oldenburg, head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, stated that the company submitted an application in January for an ETF tracking Ethereum and Solana, but it's unlikely to stop there. Tokenized money market funds are a natural progression in its cryptocurrency roadmap. Furthermore, it may explore using digital assets to offset capital gains tax, as well as Bitcoin-based yield and lending services.
Argentina includes cryptocurrencies in the net asset category for qualified investors.
The Argentine Securities and Exchange Commission (CNV) has now recognized cryptocurrencies as assets that can be included in an individual's net worth, thereby qualifying them as investors. The CNV issued General Decision No. 1125/2026, stipulating that virtual assets will be considered part of an individual's net worth and used to determine their eligibility as a qualified investor in the country. The decision defines virtual assets as "any digital representation of value that can be traded and/or transferred digitally and used for payment or investment," meaning that cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, and even stablecoins can be used as such assets.
Despite Argentina's progress in this area, financial institutions are still unable to offer cryptocurrency services to their clients because the central bank issued a resolution in 2022 aimed at "mitigating the risks that such asset transactions may pose to users of financial services and the entire financial system." However, with President Millais's government taking an open stance towards cryptocurrencies, reports suggest that the restrictions will be lifted in the near future, and some Argentine banks have begun testing blockchain-based internal settlement systems.
Project Updates
According to Bloomberg, cryptocurrency exchange operator Gemini Space Station Inc. is considering an internal plan to forgive hundreds of millions of dollars in loans to its co-founders, brothers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, and potentially convert these debts into additional equity. Gemini is currently facing losses, layoffs, and the withdrawal of its overseas operations, and the Winklevoss brothers control a majority of the voting shares. They have not previously indicated whether they support this plan.
As of the end of December last year, Gemini was burdened with debt of 4,619 bitcoins, worth more than $330 million at current prices. It had secretly filed for an initial public offering (IPO) last fall and laid off about 30% of its staff. It will also withdraw from the UK, EU and Australian markets. According to relevant documents, the company lost $585 million last year and was in a loss-making state.
Ethereum treasury firm The Ether Machine announced that the $1.6 billion SPAC merger between Dynamix Corporation (DYNX) and The Ether Machine has been terminated due to unfavorable market conditions, and Dynamix will receive a $50 million settlement within 15 days.
The agreement, first announced in July 2025, aims to list The Ether Machine on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ETHM. The deal includes a fully committed $1.5 billion PIPE funding round, in addition to approximately $170 million held in the Dynamix trust account. The combined company is expected to have a balance sheet of over 400,000 ETH.
In response to a satirical article circulating on the X platform claiming to be a WLFI "Web3 Ambassador," WLFI CEO Zach Witkoff stated that the author is not a member of the WLFI team and has no affiliation with WLFI. He further pointed out the author's lack of basic factual knowledge and suggested conducting more research. Zach Witkoff further stated:
- The author is conflating "World Liberty" with "Trump Meme Coin," which are completely unrelated.
- “World Liberty” has no connection whatsoever with “Fight Fight Fight” or CIC Digital;
- Early holders of WLFI bought in at $0.015 and $0.05 respectively, and the current price is $0.08.
- The team does not charge "transaction fees," and its main product is a stablecoin that generates returns by holding government funds.
Binance Alpha will list Genius Foundation (GENIUS) on April 13.
According to an official announcement, Binance Alpha will list the Genius Foundation (GENIUS) on April 13th. Eligible users can claim airdrops using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha event page after trading begins. More details will be released as soon as possible.
In response to the Covenant AI "betrayal" Bittensor incident, Bittensor co-founder Jacob Robert Steeves stated that Covenant AI founder Samuel Dare's actions severely damaged the protocol and community, betrayed the trust of investors and users, and "betrayed" everyone. Steeves also apologized to users who suffered losses as a result of the incident.
Steeves stated that Bittensor was designed to combat human greed and selfishness by promoting AI ownership by all participants through a permissionless mechanism. Regarding future directions, Steeves proposed advancing a "staking lock-up" mechanism, introducing a "time + staking" commitment dimension at the protocol layer to enhance transparency and investor protection, and reduce similar risks. Furthermore, development of subnets 3, 39, and 81 will continue through the community, and the overall functionality and vision will remain unchanged.
Previously , Covenant AI announced its withdrawal from the Bittensor network, questioning its centralized governance.
Nikita Bier, product manager at X, stated that in this creator revenue sharing cycle, the revenue share for all aggregated accounts has been reduced to 60%. The next cycle will see a further reduction of 20%. Bier pointed out that the large amount of plagiarized, reposted, and clickbait content published daily on the timeline not only squeezes out genuine creators but also hinders the growth of new authors. The next step will be to permanently deduct revenue from users who habitually publish clickbait content and use the "BREAKING" tag in every post. X will not restrict speech or dissemination, but will not provide revenue compensation for manipulating distribution mechanisms or misleading user behavior.
Opinions & Analysis
Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee shared an interview video with Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin on the X platform. Lubin stated that after meeting and exchanging ideas with Michael Saylor, founder of the Bitcoin treasury company Strategy, he discovered that the "Ethereum version of the Strategy model" could be done better. He cited the Bitmine and Tom Lee models as examples, which involve continuously increasing and staking ETH. The strategy includes allocating 100% of funds to ETH and participating in staking to obtain returns, achieving compound growth from day one. Compared to simply holding Bitcoin, Ethereum can achieve asset appreciation and reallocation through staking returns and multi-layered return mechanisms within the ecosystem, driving the balance sheet to transform from a "holding type" to a "return + allocation type".
An analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant wrote that the next Bitcoin bear market has not yet fully bottomed out, predicting that the "Iron Bottom" may appear around December 2026, with a price range of $55,000 to $60,000. This cycle may still need to undergo a "final clearing" before the bottom is fully formed. If historical patterns hold true, the market may bottom out at the end of 2026 and then enter a period of accumulation lasting about two years. Coupled with the expected Bitcoin halving in 2028, the peak of the next bull market may appear in the second half of 2029.
It is understood that the analysis is based on multiple indicators, including the MVRV Z-score. Although the indicator has cooled down, it has not yet entered the negative (undervalued) range. Historically, every bear market "ironclad bottom" has been accompanied by the MVRV Z-score falling below the zero axis, which means that the market has not yet entered an extremely pessimistic stage.
The CME Bitcoin futures market continues to weaken. Data shows that the average daily open interest (OI) in March 2026 had fallen below $8 billion, and further dropped to about $7.2 billion in early April, a new low since February 2024, and has declined for five consecutive months. Meanwhile, the monthly trading volume in March fell to $163 billion, nearly halved from the peak in January 2025.
Market analysis indicates that this decline is primarily due to large-scale liquidation of basis trades. Previously, institutions profited from the price difference by buying spot ETFs and shorting CME futures, which was the core driver of CME open interest growth. However, as Bitcoin prices fell from a high of $120,000 to below $70,000, annualized basis returns were significantly compressed. Currently, the approximately 5% basis return is close to the risk-free interest rate of about 4.5%. After factoring in funding costs and counterparty risk, the arbitrage opportunity has essentially disappeared, prompting leveraged funds to withdraw.
Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Windemute, said the probability of the Clarity Act, the U.S. crypto market structure bill, passing this year is about 30%. Although there have been some signs of progress in Washington, the legislative process is still hampered by multiple factors.
Hammond points out that the bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but current negotiations are progressing unevenly, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. Market research indicates that there are still significant differences in expectations regarding the bill's passage.
The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly due to significant disagreements surrounding whether stablecoins should offer yields, with related compromises repeatedly stalled. Furthermore, internal divisions within the Democratic Party, issues such as DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, and potential political factors also add uncertainty to the legislation.
Nevertheless, Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to move forward, but whether it can be passed within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.
Important data
Nasdaq-listed BERA treasury company Greenlane Holdings announced that its board of directors has approved a $2 million share buyback program. In addition, the company released its full-year financial report, which disclosed that after acquiring an additional 7.5 million BERA tokens, its holdings have increased to 77.9 million as of April 7, 2026, representing approximately 32% of the current circulating supply of BERA.
According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, an hour ago, a whale/institution controlling 59% of the circulating supply of $NOM transferred its last 278 million NOM (US$1.24 million) to Binance. This brings the total number of NOM (59% of the circulating supply) withdrawn from Binance through seven wallets on April 1st to 172 million to 172 million to 172 million to 172 million to 172 million to 172 million to 172 million in the past day and a half. Since the transfer began, the price of NOM has fallen by 45%.
According to Lookonchain, Maggie's 13-game winning streak has been ended. Due to the market crash, Maggie just closed out all his long Bitcoin positions, losing $192,000.
