Written by: Zhao Ying

Source: Wall Street News

The historic high-level talks between the US and Iran ended without an agreement, and the military standoff in the Strait of Hormuz that broke out during the talks has pushed the issue of control over this strategic waterway to the core of the diplomatic game.

According to CCTV News, after approximately 21 hours of talks in Pakistan, US Vice President Vance stated that the two sides failed to reach an agreement.

During the negotiations, Iran and the United States engaged in a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. On November 11, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. had "begun clearing the Strait of Hormuz" and claimed that Iran's 28 mine-laying boats were "all sunk to the bottom of the sea." Iran immediately responded strongly. According to Xinhua News Agency, citing Iran's Tasnim News Agency, after Iran issued a stern warning, the U.S. destroyer returned to port through the Strait of Hormuz.

The simultaneous unfolding of these two events has made the market increasingly cautious about the prospects of the negotiations. Former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro bluntly stated that the possibility of reaching a substantive agreement on the core differences is "zero," and a more realistic outcome would be to reach some understanding on the right of passage through the Strait of Hormuz in order to continue the negotiation process.

Taiwan Strait Standoff: Both Sides Hold Their Own Accounts

The accounts of the Strait of Hormuz incident on the 11th differed fundamentally between the two sides. According to Xinhua News Agency, US media, citing US officials, reported that two US destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz from east to west into the Persian Gulf, and then returned to the Arabian Sea via the same strait. US Central Command stated that the two destroyers left as planned after completing their mission in the Persian Gulf without incident. This move was intended to demonstrate that the US does not accept Iranian control of the Strait and to initiate the process of reopening commercial passages, while also launching a broader mission to clear mines from the Strait using underwater drones.

Radio conversations recorded by a nearby civilian vessel show that both sides exercised restraint. Iran warned the US destroyer, "This is a final warning, this is a final warning." The US responded that it was acting in accordance with international law, had no intention of provocation, and would abide by its government's ceasefire regulations.

However, Iran's account was quite different. According to Xinhua News Agency, after closely monitoring the position of the US destroyer, the Iranian armed forces issued a stern warning and conveyed the situation to the US negotiating delegation through Pakistan, clearly stating that "if the US warship continues to sail, it will be sunk within 30 minutes, and the Iran-US negotiations will also be affected."

On April 12, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement further emphasizing that it has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz and currently only allows non-military vessels to pass through in accordance with specific regulations, while denying reports of US warships passing through the strait.

This round of negotiations: highest-level, with the deepest differences.

This meeting in Pakistan is considered the highest-level formal diplomatic contact between the US and Iran since the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution. The US delegation was led by Vice President Vance, with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participating; the Iranian delegation was led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and senior diplomatic and security official Ali Bagheri Kani in attendance.

The talks lasted for several hours, and technical experts were brought in to discuss specific issues. However, according to CCTV News , after about 21 hours of negotiations, Vance stated that the two sides had not yet reached an agreement, and multiple rounds of "substantive discussions" ultimately failed to yield results. Nuclear programs, missile systems, and support for regional armed forces—disputes that have plagued both sides for over two decades—remained unresolved in these negotiations.

The significant involvement of hardliners in the Iranian negotiating delegation has also led to caution regarding the prospects of the negotiations. Bagheri Kani and senior lawmaker Mahmoud Nabavian have both opposed previous diplomatic efforts to limit Iran's nuclear program; security official Ali Akbar Ahmadian was sanctioned by Canada in 2023 for his role in Iran's drone program. Analysts point out that while the participation of hardliners certainly increases the difficulty of negotiations, their endorsement, if ultimately leading to an agreement, will make the agreement more sustainable.

Control of the Strait: The Most Pressing Stick in the Negotiations

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is the most pressing issue in this round of negotiations, and also the most market-sensitive unresolved issue after the negotiations ended without result.

Since the ceasefire, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy has reduced traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to extremely low levels and implemented a toll system. According to CCTV News, data from the ship tracking website "Maritime Traffic" shows that vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains extremely limited, with all transit vessels passing under direct Iranian surveillance.

According to media reports, Trump has shown increasing impatience with Iran's continued failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a precondition for the two-week ceasefire agreement. Suzanne Maloney, director of the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy Program, stated that Iran's public stance of seeking to unfreeze billions of dollars in assets indicates that this will be one of its conditions for a temporary easing of the Strait's blockade. She also warned, "The Strait issue is the most pressing; the U.S. cannot allow it to overshadow the core of the conflict—the nuclear issue."

Behind the standoff: a coexistence of probing and restraint

Judging from the actual course of this standoff, both sides, despite their tough statements, demonstrated a degree of restraint—the US military withdrew after completing its crossing, while Iran opted to handle the situation through negotiation rather than taking direct military action. This situation continues the overall trend since last Thursday, where the US has ceased its strikes and Iranian drone and missile attacks on the Gulf region have significantly decreased.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House in London, believes that Ghalibaf's ability to maintain high-level talks despite US warships challenging Iran in the Strait demonstrates his authority to exert pressure on Iran's political system under these circumstances. Vakil stated, "This is the US testing the waters to see if they will react with restraint."

With the negotiations now fruitless, whether the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz can be managed in subsequent contacts will directly determine the stability of this most important global energy shipping route and whether there is room for a broader diplomatic process between the US and Iran to continue.

Advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader: Control of the Strait of Hormuz is in Iran's hands

Popular Articles