Bernstein predicts that the forecasting market will reach $1 trillion by 2030.

PANews reported on April 15th, citing CNBC, that analysts at Wall Street brokerage Bernstein predict that prediction market trading volume will reach approximately $1 trillion by 2030. In the first few months of 2026, the two major platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, already achieved approximately $60 billion in trading volume, exceeding the $51 billion for the entire year of 2025. Kalshi currently controls over 90% of the US prediction market share, with weekly trading volume surging from approximately $100 million a year ago to over $3 billion. Bernstein projects that prediction market trading volume will reach $240 billion in 2026, a 370% increase from last year. Analysts predict that the institutional market will revolve around economic, commercial, and political contracts, with sports contracts currently accounting for over 60% of trading volume, expected to halve by 2030. Robinhood's prediction market business generates $350 million in annual recurring revenue, approximately 30% of Kalshi's total. Despite facing state-level legal challenges, analysts predict that as federal regulations become clearer, prediction markets will gain greater market legitimacy and mainstream adoption.

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