Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
Macro Market
The situation in the Middle East has shifted again, with the Strait of Hormuz being closed once more over the weekend, shattering the optimism surrounding last Friday's ceasefire. The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22, but Iranian officials have repeatedly denied participating in a new round of negotiations. Bloomberg strategist Mark Cranfield stated that amidst the back-and-forth between peace negotiations and the Strait's closure, Asian stock traders are being forced back into a defensive posture, and Japanese, South Korean, and A-share markets, among other Asia-Pacific risk assets, face a severe test of spillover effects in the short term.
U.S. stock index futures all fell , Brent crude oil opened 7.9% higher at $97.80 a barrel, WTI crude oil also rose more than 7% to around $90, and European natural gas futures once rose more than 11%. Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicted that high gasoline prices would continue into next year, rendering Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's earlier pronouncements of a "financial bombardment" and "easing before summer" seem weak. Sarah Hunt of Alpine Woods also emphasized that the market will remain volatile unless ships actually pass through the strait.
In addition, the hearing of Federal Reserve Chair candidate Kevin Warsh will be the focus this week, and market expectations for a rate cut have shrunk to just 5 basis points.
Bitcoin price
Bitcoin quickly retreated from its ten-week high of $78,400 to around $74,000-$75,000 after Iran rejected a second round of peace talks and its decision to block the Strait of Hormuz. Notably, despite the sharp price fluctuations, the 30-day volatility index was only 1.75%. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, noted that the volatility and upside potential of this cycle (with a maximum increase of 97%) are "dramatically" weaker than the previous three halving cycles. Currently, the two large gaps left by the CME at 77.3K and 67.2K are strongly influencing short-term price movements.
Bearish view
The bearish camp believes that macroeconomic geopolitical risks and weakening technicals are resonating together, and the depletion of high liquidity and the gravitational pull of the CME gap will force Bitcoin to seek support downwards.
Sykodelic: The weekly close was weak, with both the 3-day and weekly charts showing an SFP (Swing Failure) pattern. Currently, it has broken below the high timeframe bullish structure of $74,400, and the probability of it finding a bottom in the short term is greater than that of continuing to rise.
Donaxbt: The price failed to recover $74,500, which is a strong bearish signal.
CrypNuevo: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has brought the situation to a dead end. I have shorted at $78,000 and expect Bitcoin to remain range-bound for the next month.
KillaXBT: Bullish momentum is waning. The CME gaps at 77.3K and 67.2K are potential risks. An upward breakout is likely a false breakout, followed by a bullish shakeout.
Whale Factor: There is nearly $9 billion in long liquidation at $67,180. The CME gap is a huge price magnet, and the market usually hunts for liquidity before it rises.
Jason Pizzino: The bottom target for the cycle has been adjusted to the $40,000-$55,000 range, and chart movements always take precedence over subjective expectations.
Ted Pillows: Bitcoin fell below $74,000 after Iran refused to hold a second round of peace talks with the United States.
bullish view
The bullish camp emphasizes that the repair of the chip structure and the support of on-chain buying are consolidating the bottom, and the short-term pullback is only to better accumulate strength for an upward attack.
Murphy: Bitcoin is filling the "curse" gap of $72,000-$80,000. In just two days, nearly 200,000 BTC have changed hands between $76,000 and $77,000. The thick "wall of chips" will greatly reduce the probability of a price crash.
LP: The order book shows buying support below. If the $72,000 demand zone can hold, it will lay the foundation for a rise in early May. In addition, the pivotal correlation of Monday/Thursday is still in effect.
that1618guy: The CPS indicator is holding firm above 0.57, providing a good safety margin, and the market is likely to consolidate sideways in the short term.
AlphaBTC: CME gaps over the weekend are usually filled quickly at the beginning of the week. We look forward to a two-way gap-filling scenario after the US market opens.
Ethereum price quotes
After breaking through $2,400, Ethereum's price has continued to be under pressure due to the broader market correction and the DeFi crisis triggered by the Kelp DAO cross-chain bridge hack. Renowned KOL Ansem stated that Ethereum's investment logic has gradually weakened in recent years, with retail investors migrating to other ecosystems like Solana, and Rollups lacking practical applications. He warned that ETH has entered a sustained downward trend, and if it breaks below the $2,377 support level, it could further decline to the 2025 low of $1,300.
In addition, trader TurboBullCapital pointed out that Ethereum's breakout above $2,400 was a false breakout. Currently, attention should be paid to buying opportunities when it pulls back to around $2,190, or waiting for the price to rise above $2,400 again before investing in altcoins.
Market Dynamics
Over the weekend, the price of RAVE token plummeted from an all-time high of $28 to $0.44, a drop of over 98%, almost erasing all gains since April 9th. Chain detective ZachXBT points out that the RAVE token market is highly manipulated and controlled, with 95% of the supply controlled by a small number of addresses. ZachXBT has offered a $25,000 reward, urging exchanges such as Binance and Bitget to investigate.
Just two weeks after the $285 million Drift theft, DeFi restaking protocol Kelp DAO has broken the record for the largest amount stolen from the crypto industry this year. Hackers exploited a vulnerability in LayerZero contracts to transfer approximately 116,500 rsETH, worth about $292 million at current prices, representing 18% of the circulating supply of rsETH. ZRO tokens initially fell nearly 30% over the weekend but have since rebounded.
Protocols such as Aave and SparkLend have frozen the rsETH market. AAVE tokens were panic-sold by several whales due to bad debt concerns, falling more than 20% over the weekend. Some lending demand flowed into protocols such as Spark , pushing ETH deposit rates on Spark to 130% at one point, and the price of its token SPK also surged by more than 50%, reaching a new high since November 2025.
Key data (as of 13:00 HKT, April 20)
(Data source: Coinank, Upbit, SoSoValue, CryptoBubbles)
Bitcoin ETF: Net inflows of $996 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net inflows.
Ethereum ETF: Net inflow of $276 million last week
SOL ETF: Net inflow of $35.17 million last week
XRP ETF: Net inflow of $55.39 million last week
Fear of Greed Index: 29 (Fear)
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: PIEVERSE, XRP, BTC, ETH, BLUR
Sector Performance: Most crypto stocks retreated, but SocialFi and AI sectors saw slight gains.
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 120,536 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $321 million, including $103 million in BTC liquidations, $91.57 million in ETH liquidations, and $11.41 million in RAVE liquidations.
Today's Outlook
The Tennessee Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act will have a Senate hearing on April 20.
OpenGradient will open the OPG token claim window on April 20th.
Binance will launch MSFT, AVGO, and BABA U-margined perpetual contracts on April 21.
The hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Warsh is scheduled for April 21.
Coinbase will suspend trading in 25 perpetual contracts on April 21.
US Customs: Tariff refunds will begin on April 20, potentially reaching $1 trillion.
SanDisk officially joins the Nasdaq 100 Index (April 20, 16:00)
KAITO will unlock approximately 17.6 million tokens, worth about $8.1 million, on April 20.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock approximately 25.71 million tokens, worth approximately $40.4 million, on April 20.
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: JUST up 7.2%, Chiliz up 6.5%, LayerZero up 5.7%, Siren up 4.8%, and Canton Network up 3.4%.
