Author: BitalkNews

On the morning of April 20, 2026, the stock price of Xinhuo Group suddenly surged, rising by more than 11% at one point during the trading session.

What triggered this wave of market activity was a piece of news that simultaneously ignited both the financial and crypto communities: Fu Peng, the former chief economist of Northeast Securities, officially joined Xinhuo Group as its chief economist.

The news was first reported by Tencent News' "First Line," and was subsequently confirmed by Xinhuo Group. Fu Peng himself also told the media, "It mainly involves a combination of FICC and C-type businesses."

FICC refers to Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange, and Commodities, while C refers to Cryptocurrency. His main task upon joining the company is to integrate digital assets into a global asset allocation framework, providing macroeconomic research and asset allocation support to Newfire's institutional clients.

This marks his first public appearance in an official capacity nearly a year after leaving Northeast Securities. For him, this is not just a change of employer, but more like the fresh start of a new chapter in his professional narrative.

The first half reached its peak within the traditional financial system, only to be forced to a halt amidst controversy and ailments; the second half is being held in Hong Kong, on the crypto track, at a crossroads where traditional finance and digital assets are slowly merging.

The Path of an Atypical Chief Executive Officer

In 2004, Fu Peng joined Lehman Brothers, and later served as the Global Head of Macro Hedging Strategy Design at Salomon Brothers International Investment Group, where he was responsible for the analysis of the correlation between currencies, commodities and major asset classes for nearly four years.

I returned to China at the end of 2008 and worked for various institutions including Shandong High-Tech Investment, Zhongzhongqi, Galaxy Futures, Galaxy Securities, and Anxin Securities.

In February 2020, he joined Northeast Securities as chief economist. His approach in this position differed from most of his peers: he made social media his main battleground.

He frequently uses analogies and metaphors to explain economic logic, and his style is quite performative. His Weibo account, "Fu Peng's Financial World," has accumulated over 4 million followers, and his Douyin account has reached 1.485 million followers. On Xiaohongshu and Bilibili, he has also accumulated 355,000 and 773,000 followers, respectively.

In 2024, he published "Witnessing the Tide," using a three-tiered framework of "politics/distribution—macroeconomics—assets" to explain the changes in global asset logic after 2016.

This approach earned him considerable recognition in the financial world, making him an analyst who could present complex macroeconomic logic to ordinary investors in a simple and accessible way.

The consequences of a speech

In late November 2024, Fu Peng was invited to give a year-end speech at HSBC Private Wealth Planning’s internal event in Shanghai. His speech covered topics such as declining effective demand in China, shrinking middle-class income, and widening consumption gaps, as well as his assessment that current stimulus policies are unlikely to replicate the effects of 2008.

The recording and transcript were subsequently widely circulated online, removed from multiple platforms, and his WeChat and short video accounts were banned for nearly half a year.

A rumor has circulated that the event was canceled because he was summoned by regulators. Fu Peng responded publicly, directly attacking HSBC and posting chat logs, stating, "The lawyer's letter is on its way; I'm waiting for your apology."

Northeast Securities also stated that there had been no regulatory interviews recently. HSBC responded that it was "looking into the relevant situation," and the matter quietly faded from public attention without any further developments, ultimately ending without resolution.

During the period his account was suspended, Fu Peng's channels for public expression were significantly narrowed.

On April 30, 2025, he officially resigned from Northeast Securities, explaining that he had just undergone two major surgeries and needed to rest for more than six months.

Predictive power and boundaries

Many claims circulate among Fu Peng's fans about his uncanny predictions, including the 2008 financial crisis, the recovery of the Japanese stock market, and the turning point in China's real estate cycle. Since 2016, he has consistently emphasized deglobalization and changes in the central interest rate, some of which have been subsequently validated.

However, his forecasting record is not balanced. There are clear deviations in areas such as short-term exchange rates and specific policy windows, with some judgments considered overly pessimistic by critics, or showing significant inaccuracies under policy intervention. He himself admits that macroeconomic research focuses on structural variables, not data from the next quarter. This is both a self-explanation of his methodology and a preventative explanation for short-term inaccuracies.

What he offers is a framework for explaining the world, not a predictive tool that can be consistently replicated. Describing him as a prophet who can predict everything is a misinterpretation.

One of his major strengths is his ability to express complex macro-level logic in a simple and accessible way while maintaining relatively independent judgment. This allows his influence to reach a wider audience, which is exactly what the Newfire Group needs most.

Why choose Newfire?

Fu Peng theoretically has more than one option for a comeback. Traditional securities firms would welcome him back, and the position of chief economist is not unfamiliar to him, but he chose Newfire.

The space for traditional finance is shrinking. For someone who spoke so frankly in his HSBC speech, returning to the system means something he should understand better than anyone else.

His expertise extends beyond traditional assets; FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) is one of his strengths. With the institutionalization of crypto assets, their connection to macroeconomic logic has become increasingly apparent. Interest rate cycles, dollar liquidity, and geopolitical risk premiums—these variables simultaneously affect both traditional and digital assets.

There is also a more pragmatic factor: a comeback requires a suitable stage.

Newfire Group operates under a Hong Kong license and is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, thus remaining within the compliant framework. Furthermore, its size and stage of development allow for sufficient flexibility, enabling a visionary individual to build a new research system. This is entirely different from playing a fixed role in a mature, large institution.

Why does Xin Huo need him?

Newfire Group is currently positioned as a digital asset management institution targeting high-net-worth clients. It holds Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission Type 1, 4 and 9 licenses and a TCSP trust license, making it one of the earliest institutions in Hong Kong to achieve full-license virtual asset management.

In 2025, Weng Xiaoqi became CEO, launched the Bitfire Premium service, acquired a majority stake in the licensed Japanese exchange BitTrade, exited the retail market, and focused on family offices, listed companies, and institutional clients. At the end of March 2026, the company changed its name to Bitfire Group Holdings Limited.

Financially, total revenue for fiscal year 2025 was HK$8.661 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of over 450%. However, this growth was primarily driven by increased volume in low-margin crypto OTC trading, and the company as a whole remained unprofitable. Management has designated 2026 as a turning point for profitability, indicating significant pressure.

The compliance framework has been established, and the growth figures are impressive, but what Xinhuo really lacks at this stage is not traffic, but trust.

Its clients, including family office partners, CFOs of listed companies, and private investors who have already accumulated considerable wealth, are not lacking in information or data. What they lack is a narrative framework that can reassure them about digital assets, as well as a professional image from the traditional financial world.

Weng Xiaoqi put this logic quite bluntly: "Fu Peng's profound global overall judgment ability and accurate market liquidity insight will become the company's top strategic brain... helping clients accurately grasp certainty in the era of 'FICC+C'."

Fu Peng's background in international investment banking and hedge funds, his independent public image, and his influence in the millions constitute a recognizable professional signal for traditional wealthy individuals who are assessing whether to allocate more funds to digital assets.

This is a deal where both parties get what they need.

A beginning without a conclusion

On one side is a person who came from the traditional financial system, and after experiencing a peak, controversy and a forced interruption, is looking for a space where he can continue to express himself and play his part; on the other side is a company that is striving to move from a trading platform to an institutional service provider, trying to establish a language that is easier for traditional capital to understand.

Can the appeal of a macro narrative translate into real institutional capital inflows? How long can Fu Peng's independent style be maintained within the institutional framework of a listed company?

Whether the trust that traditional wealthy clients place in digital assets is ultimately based on agreement with the framework, or whether it still needs further clarification from regulators, remains to be seen.