PANews reported on May 18 that Binance Research released its weekly chart analysis, pointing to the same conclusion from four on-chain signals: supply is tightening and selling pressure has been exhausted.

1. Long-term dormancy: Nearly 60% of the BTC supply has not moved for more than a year, far higher than the 27% in 2012. The dormancy rate peaked at 69.5% in January 2024 when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved, and has remained close to historical highs since then.
2. The SLRV indicator: The Short-Term Long-Term Holder Value Ratio is deep in historically low territory, indicating a subdued market sentiment. Long-term holders dominate supply, while short-term speculators have largely exited the market. Historically, this ratio has entered this area alongside every cycle bottom.
3. Exchange balance: After peaking at 17.6% during the pandemic, the exchange balance has dropped to 15.0%, with approximately 500,000 BTC permanently leaving exchanges and the seller supply falling to a 6-year low.
4. STH MVRV indicator: Since November 2024, the MVRV of BTC short-term holders has remained below 1.0 for most of the time, gradually exhausting selling pressure. Currently, the ratio has rebounded to 1.0, and short-term holders are beginning to re-accumulate unrealized gains. Since profit accumulation is still in its early stages, a new round of selling pressure is unlikely to occur immediately; historically, this pattern has often preceded a sustained recovery.