PANews reported on May 21 that, according to The Block, Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated that Bitcoin's price action is mirroring the 2022 bear market pattern as market sentiment turns "extremely pessimistic." Technically, Bitcoin's recent rebound encountered resistance at the 200-day moving average near $82,400, consistent with the situation in March 2022—when Bitcoin rebounded 43% from its lows before hitting this moving average and resuming its downward trend. Moreno pointed out that in a bear market, the 200-day moving average is the dividing line between rebound areas and trend continuations; failure to break through this line is the strongest technical confirmation of a intact bear market structure.

On the demand and funding front, Bitcoin demand has turned negative. Speculative demand in perpetual futures slowed sharply after breaking through $82,000, while spot demand contracted rapidly. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have turned net sellers. Regarding sentiment indicators, CryptoQuant's bullish rating index fell from 40 to 20, placing it in the "extremely bearish" zone, consistent with readings seen when Bitcoin fell to $60,000-$66,000 in February-March 2026. Regarding key support levels, Moreno believes that if the pullback continues, around $70,000 (the on-chain realized price for traders) is a crucial level. At this level, unrealized profits will turn to zero or negative, reducing selling incentives and historically helping demand return to stable prices.