PANews reported on May 22nd that Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current crypto market is in a binary pricing phase of "expectations of a deal vs. the resurgence of war." According to Axios, Trump and Netanyahu have significant differences regarding a peace plan for Iran. The US tends to push for a 30-day negotiation window through a letter of intent, while Israel is concerned that any compromise would weaken its pressure on Iran's nuclear and missile programs. The market has not panicked but has entered a highly cautious phase: BTC remains around $77,830 and ETH around $2,135, with limited intraday volatility. The market is waiting for confirmation of either a "deal" or a "re-offensive."
At the macro level, the core variables remain oil prices, inflation expectations, and dollar liquidity. Following Trump's signals that negotiations were entering their final stages, Asian stock and bond markets saw a recovery in risk appetite; however, oil prices rebounded again due to uncertainty surrounding the agreement and declining US inventories, with Brent crude remaining above $105, indicating that the market has not fully removed the Middle East risk premium, and supply risks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to suppress risk asset valuations.
Short-term trends may depend on two scenarios: If the US and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding and enter into substantive negotiations, the oil price risk premium is expected to continue to decline, inflation expectations will ease, and BTC may benefit first from the recovery of macro risk appetite and retest the previous resistance zone. ETH and major altcoins will follow suit with a rebound, but their elasticity is likely to be weaker than BTC. If negotiations break down and the US and Israel resume attacks on Iranian energy and infrastructure targets, oil prices may rise again, and the market will re-trade the logic of "high oil prices - high inflation - delayed interest rate cuts." The crypto market will face short-term deleveraging pressure, and high-beta altcoins will be most vulnerable to selling.
From a market observation perspective, the current cryptocurrency market is essentially a geopolitical pricing mechanism, rather than purely technically driven. BTC is closer to a highly liquid defensive position among risk assets and may outperform most altcoins; altcoins, on the other hand, need to wait for clearer signals of the resolution of macroeconomic risks. Key observation points focus on three aspects: whether the US and Iran have formally entered 30-day negotiations, whether passage through the Strait of Hormuz can be resumed, and whether Trump will reauthorize military strikes. Before the outcomes become clear, a more reasonable baseline expectation remains that BTC will fluctuate with a slight upward bias, ETH will follow suit moderately, and altcoins will show increased divergence.
