PANews reported on May 25th that, according to 10x Research, the Bitcoin trend model has just turned bearish. The market is currently facing multiple pressures: Strategy's "never sell" narrative is cracking, with Michael Saylor hinting that the firm may eventually sell a portion of its 843,000 BTC holdings. This shift since May 7th has triggered $2.7 billion in ETF outflows. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $1 billion in May, with $2.7 billion concentrated in the last two weeks, and the outflow rate is accelerating.

At the macro level, inflation is a risk factor that most Bitcoin investors have mispriced in. Inflation is negatively correlated with Bitcoin returns, and rising oil prices will continue to affect CPI data over the next 2-3 months. The bond market has fully priced in a Fed rate hike before the end of the year. In terms of market structure, Bitcoin volatility is at the 6th percentile historically, Ethereum volatility is at the 1st percentile, and implied volatility is near historical lows. Funding rates are close to zero, open interest is at the 44th percentile, and trading volume is at the 12th percentile, exhibiting characteristics of low confidence, low leverage, and low liquidity. Ethereum's market capitalization share has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025, and Bitmine shareholders have suffered $8 billion in losses due to betting on ETH.

10x Research points out that the key bull-bear dividing line for Bitcoin is $76,088, and its price is currently above this line. The core relative value position is long Bitcoin and short Ethereum, with upward momentum analysis pointing to Hyperliquid and Zcash.