Author: Fidelity Digital Assets

Compiled by: Jia Huan, ChainCatcher

Mid-year is a good time to review the market, allowing investors to assess changes in market dynamics and whether their initial assessments still hold true.

In their " 2026 Outlook ," the Fidelity Digital Assets research team argues that the key this year is not an immediate price surge, but rather a more subtle dynamic: a structural "reshaping" of the entire digital asset ecosystem. While price performance has been sometimes flat and sometimes volatile this year, closer examination reveals several underlying trends that are steadily progressing.

This article reviews the progress of several key themes from the "2026 Outlook" to date, pointing out which of our judgments have been confirmed, which have diverged, and what these changes may mean for the future.

1: Digital assets and capital markets are accelerating their integration.

We had anticipated that the integration of digital assets with traditional capital markets would continue into 2026. So far, this trend has indeed moved forward, with some areas progressing even faster than expected.

Despite market fluctuations, demand for digital asset exposure through mainstream financial channels remains strong, and traditional platforms continue to expand their product lines.

It is worth noting that the open interest of spot Bitcoin ETP options (which will not be launched until November 2024 at the earliest) is now comparable to that of options settled directly in Bitcoin, reflecting the continued rise in adoption by institutional and mainstream investors.

The tokenization space is also gaining momentum, with activity seemingly exceeding expectations. Traditional financial institutions are increasingly launching blockchain-based investment products, while major exchanges are partnering with or acquiring stakes in digital asset platforms to broaden distribution channels and connect to on-chain infrastructure.

At the same time, the regulatory landscape is becoming clearer. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have jointly issued guidelines to establish the classification of digital assets. Coupled with the advancement of legislation such as the Clarity Act, this means that market participants will have a clearer framework.

In summary, these developments indicate that digital assets are increasingly being integrated into the broader financial system, a trend driven by both market demand and infrastructure expansion.

2: The rights of token holders are gradually gaining attention, but remain unclear.

We had anticipated that by 2026, the interests of token holders would be more closely aligned, and more on-chain companies would prioritize mechanisms such as buybacks and clearer ownership.

So far, this direction appears unchanged, and experimentation continues throughout the ecosystem: from reserve-based buyback dynamics (such as the Hyperliquid/USDC consortium) to governance and structural updates like the Aave DAO/Labs restructuring.

However, despite the expanding adoption of these mechanisms, the significant "token holder premium" has not yet been fully reflected in market pricing. This trend is progressing but is still in its early stages, and investors are still determining which models can truly deliver sustained value accumulation.

3: The Potential Transformation of Artificial Intelligence and Mining

We previously suggested that increased competition from AI computing power demand could level off Bitcoin's hashrate growth, as miners would reinvest energy and infrastructure in potentially more profitable areas. This dynamic may be emerging this year: the 30-day average hashrate and mining difficulty have decreased by approximately 8.8% and 7.8%, respectively.

While some of this can be attributed to seasonal factors, particularly winter-related power rationing, the recent recovery (hashrate rebounding by about 1.3% from its low point and difficulty rebounding by about 8.8%) suggests that weather alone cannot fully explain this shift.

Looking at the longer-term trajectory, the growth rate of computing power has slowed compared to previous years, which may be an early sign of structural changes. The increasingly profitable business of AI data centers, especially for large operators with access to power infrastructure, seems to be a growing driving force behind this trend.

Although it is still in its early stages, the observed slowdown in growth is consistent with initial assessments and may reflect that miners are gradually shifting to other sources of income.

4: Bitcoin is at a new turning point

We had anticipated that increasing the amount of data that the OP_RETURN opcode can write would not significantly bloat the blockchain (OP_RETURN is used for writing data on-chain, and because a transaction fee is required, relaxing its data limit has not led to abuse or network bloat). So far, the data appears to support this assessment.

Usage of larger block sizes (≥84 bytes) of OP_RETURN remained largely unchanged, and overall blockchain growth remained within the predicted range (approximately 1.35–2.5 MB). Other block utilization metrics showed that capacity remained below 50%, indicating that the increased data flexibility did not put substantial pressure on the network.

Meanwhile, the focus has shifted to broader network dynamics. Bitcoin Knots nodes have shown significant fluctuations, rising and falling rapidly, sparking speculation about potential Sybil-like activity.

Based on current data, Bitcoin Core nodes still account for approximately 77% of the network, while Knots nodes account for approximately 17%. Although still a minority, this carries the risk of an unexpected split—not a high probability, but not zero: under certain conditions, Knots nodes could split into a stagnant or less secure chain, which, according to current estimates, could occur within approximately 80 days.

However, Core's dominant share still anchors network consensus. Meanwhile, momentum is building around long-term security upgrades. BIP-360, simplified, introduces a quantum-resistant output type (Pay-to-Merkle-Root, P2MR); and ongoing research on OP_CHECKSHRINCS reflects an exploration of hash-based post-quantum signature schemes.

While the exact timing of the quantum threat remains uncertain, these developments demonstrate that the industry is increasingly focused on preparing for the future security of networks.

5: Short sellers are temporarily in control of the situation.

In January of this year, we outlined two scenarios for a balanced bull and bear market heading into 2026, anticipating that macroeconomic conditions would lead to a non-linear trend, despite improving structural fundamentals.

This year, a bear market scenario has largely prevailed: Bitcoin has fallen 13%, driven by deleveraging triggered by liquidations, persistently high inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty leading the market to anticipate further interest rate hikes. However, recent market performance reveals a more subtle dynamic.

Bitcoin rebounded after the initial sell-off triggered by recent geopolitical conflicts, outperforming traditional assets during the same period, perhaps reflecting market demand for highly liquid, neutral assets during times of stress.

At the same time, structural advantages still exist, including the continued formation of institutional capital, the gradual improvement of regulatory clarity, and the expansion of global liquidity.

Although the short-term environment remains constrained, our broader assessment still seems to hold true, albeit with some inconsistencies.

6: Gold maintains its strength, what will happen next?

As we have pointed out before, it is not surprising that gold is poised for another strong year, supported by central bank gold purchases and the global trend of gradually moving away from the dollar system.

Gold initially rebounded nearly 30% amid geopolitical tensions this year before retreating to a more modest gain of around 3-4%. Despite the pullback, gold is still likely to outperform the market by the end of the year.

There is also growing evidence supporting a move away from the dollar system, including emerging alternative settlement methods such as Iran accepting Bitcoin to pay tolls and payments related to activities in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, central bank demand for gold remains strong. Recent data shows that buying continues, and notably, gold has surpassed the US dollar and US Treasury bonds to become a major component of global reserves.

Gold's performance, coupled with continued demand from central banks, is largely in line with our initial assessment; however, the exceptional performance we anticipated for Bitcoin has not yet materialized.

Conclusion: Accumulate strength beneath the surface.

As we approach the middle of the year, the digital asset landscape in 2026 presents a balance between short-term pressures and long-term progress. Several themes in the Outlook are developing as expected, particularly in terms of institutional participation, regulation, and infrastructure; however, others are still in their early stages or have not yet fully materialized.

For investors, this means looking beyond short-term price fluctuations to see how structural changes are taking shape. Many of the foundations supporting the next phase of growth appear to be thickening, even if they are not yet fully apparent.

Strategy's stock price has fallen by more than 10% in two days.

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