PANews reported on June 3 that, according to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen by approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to face downward pressure. Market sentiment was affected by the news of Strategy's rare sale of 32 BTC. Although the sale amounted to only about $2.5 million, having little substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 BTC, it shattered the market's long-held expectation that Strategy would "never sell its coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.
The macroeconomic environment is also unfavorable. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and stalled US-Iran negotiations have driven up oil prices, and the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz has once again come into focus. At the same time, stronger-than-expected US job openings data has reduced market bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and strengthened expectations of "higher rates for longer."
The options market showed a clear increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to approximately 41.4%, a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remained negative, with an inverted short-term yield curve, reflecting continued strong demand for downside protection in the market.
QCP believes the current market is not experiencing a panic sell-off, but rather a repricing of downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, higher real interest rates, and macroeconomic uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI-related stocks and large technology companies continue to attract significant inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market.
QCP points out that if BTC fails to regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. Currently, the market is more inclined to buy downside protection rather than actively increasing risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macroeconomic environment between a "soft landing" and a path of "high inflation, high interest rates, and low liquidity."
