Today's top news highlights:
Glassnode co-founder: Bitcoin's bottom is most likely between $46,000 and $54,000.
A whale withdrew 1,723 bitcoins from OKX in a single day, worth $105.58 million.
Tom Lee: Don't be misled by misinformation; cryptocurrency is crucial in the world of AI.
DWF co-founder: BitMine and Strategy may trigger the biggest crash in crypto history.
Regulation & Macro
Next Week's Macro Outlook: US CPI, two major central bank decisions, and the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO. Following Friday's better-than-expected non-farm payroll data, market expectations for a Fed rate hike this year have intensified, spot gold has almost erased its year-to-date gains, the US dollar index has surged, and US tech stocks have plummeted. Goldman Sachs believes greed outweighs fear, while Deutsche Bank points out the market's sensitivity to negative news from Iran. Next week's focus: Monday: US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday: US May CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision; Thursday: ECB interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims and May PPI; Friday: US June 1-year inflation expectations preliminary reading, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading. The most anticipated event is SpaceX's potential IPO, expected to launch on Friday, which is expected to significantly impact market sentiment. In addition, Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, Oracle and Adobe earnings reports, and TSMC's May sales data are also worth noting.
Project Updates
Bybit launches Bybit IPO Express, an on-chain US stock IPO subscription product, supporting subscription services for SpaceX's tokenized IPO in partnership with xStocks. Bybit becomes one of the world's first centralized exchanges to offer tokenized IPO subscriptions during the primary market IPO pricing phase. This service is open to eligible VIP and Pro users, eliminating the need for traditional brokerage accounts and overcoming geographical and account opening restrictions. The SpaceX xStocks IPO subscription timeline is as follows: registration and subscription period: June 7-11; allocation phase: June 11-12; spot trading launch: June 12. The tokenized SpaceX shares are fully backed by the xStocks issuer, pegged 1:1 to real equity, meeting institutional compliance standards. Bybit will continue to expand its on-chain US stock and RWA asset ecosystem in the future.
PiggyBank, a yield protocol, acknowledged a serious error in its LAB token basis trading last month. The team purchased approximately $100,000 worth of locked LAB tokens at a low OTC price and hedged with short perpetual contracts. However, LAB suffered severe market manipulation, liquidity dried up, and funding rates were deeply negative, making hedging too costly and ultimately forcing the closing of the short positions. At current prices, the total value of the locked positions is $1.35 million, but due to insufficient liquidity, they will be excluded from net asset value calculations before their initial unlock on August 14th. Today's net asset value shows USDC vault down approximately 15%, SPYx down approximately 12%, and JitoSOL down approximately 9%. A detailed report will be released next week. On-chain investigator ZachXBT previously questioned whether the company had insider control over more than 95% of the supply.
OpenAI plans to significantly upgrade ChatGPT to generate more revenue.
OpenAI is preparing its biggest upgrade to ChatGPT since its launch, planning to transform it into a "super app" that integrates programming tools with AI agents and adds several new products that can generate higher revenue. This is part of OpenAI's overall restructuring plan aimed at attracting high-margin enterprise customers and competing with Anthropic. The company will elevate the status of its programming product Codex and increase resource investment, reflecting the internal consensus that the future of AI is intelligent agents that can perform tasks for users, not just chatbots that answer questions. OpenAI is valued at $850 billion and plans to find new growth engines before its IPO this year.
ZODL, a core contributor to the Zcash ecosystem, in collaboration with Tachyon, Valar Group, Zcash Foundation, and Shielded Labs, has proposed a new network upgrade solution and the privacy pool Ironwood. Built on the Orchard protocol, it enhances security through formal verification and independent auditing. Recently discovered Orchard integrity issues have been fixed, and there is no evidence that the vulnerabilities were exploited or affected user funds, privacy, or the total supply of ZEC. Wallets supporting Orchard will offer a one-click migration function, and existing addresses can continue to be used. Ironwood is planned to be activated by the end of July 2026, and ZEC in Orchard will be migrated through a "Turnstile" mechanism, allowing independent verification of the circulating supply. After the upgrade, the Orchard pool will disable new deposits and internal transactions.
As prediction market trading volume grows, institutional funds are pouring in at an accelerated pace. Quantitative trading giants such as DRW, Wintertermute, and IMC are assembling dedicated teams and deploying on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to capture pricing discrepancies through cross-platform arbitrage, market microstructure arbitrage, and news-driven strategies. With Hyperliquid and others planning to launch prediction market products, competition has begun surrounding latency, liquidity, and cross-platform efficiency.
Investment and financing news
Nvidia acquires prediction AI startup Kumo AI for over $400 million
Nvidia has acquired predictive AI startup Kumo AI for over $400 million. Founded in 2022, Kumo AI develops foundational models that can directly process structured data in enterprise data warehouses for tasks such as customer churn prediction, fraud detection, and demand forecasting. The founding team has joined Nvidia, which declined to comment. This acquisition will expand its AI software portfolio and strengthen its competitiveness in the enterprise predictive analytics market.
Opinions & Analysis
Glassnode co-founder: Bitcoin's bottom is most likely between $46,000 and $54,000.
Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, points out that Bitcoin's current price is in the $62,000 range, down nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a 24% drop in the past month, entering a valuation cluster area where historical bottoms have occurred. This is the first time Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder's break-even level since December 2022. Current support levels: median realized price around $64,100, 200-week moving average around $61,700. Historically, it has only fallen below this MVRV level about 7% of the time. A higher probability bottom area is between $46,000 and $54,000; a defensive floor in extreme panic is between $35,000 and $40,000. The cyclical pullback is gradually decreasing; this round has only seen a drop of about 50%, making a high-probability bottom more likely in the upper range. The first key recovery area on the upside is between $75,000 and $79,000. He emphasizes that this is only a prediction, and the bottom cannot be precisely determined.
Tom Lee: Don't be misled by misinformation; cryptocurrency is crucial in the world of AI.
Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee stated that people should not be misled by misinformation, the stock market bull run remains solid, and cryptocurrency is the only way to tokenize and is crucial in the machine-to-machine AI world.
Bitcoin's daily RSI has fallen to around 15.5, its lowest level since the March 2020 crash due to the pandemic, indicating extreme oversold conditions. Historically, BTC has rebounded by approximately 50% and 30% after similar levels. Currently, BTC is holding above the $60,000 support level. If this level holds, it may rebound to around $70,600 near the 20-day EMA in the coming weeks; if it breaks below, it could test the mid-$50,000 range. Analyst Scott Melker points out that short-term holders have recorded the largest loss-making sell-off in history, while long-term holders have approximately 5.3 million BTC with unrealized losses, the highest since March 2020. The shift in market sentiment from extreme optimism to extreme pessimism often signals an impending bottom.
DWF co-founder: BitMine and Strategy may trigger the biggest crash in crypto history.
Andrei Grachev, co-founder of DWF Labs, stated that BitMine and Strategy could cause the largest market crash in crypto history, and inquired about possible strategies to deal with a Bitcoin crash to $10,000 to $20,000.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin is retesting the February low of around $62,000, with a current 7-day net realized loss of approximately $7 billion, higher than the February low but lower than the winter panic peak of $14 billion. BTC has fallen below the short-term holder's cost price of around $76,000. Further downside potential lies in the network average realized price of around $54,000 and the long-term holder's cost price of around $49,000, corresponding to historical cycle bottom ranges. As long as it remains above $54,000, the market has not entered a full-blown capitulation phase; however, if it breaks below and continues to trade below the February low, it may test the $54,000 level.
Barry Silbert, founder of DCG (Grayscale's parent company), stated that crypto market participants should not gloat over the Zcash price drop, but rather improve their ability to withstand AI and quantum risks in their crypto assets, learn risk management and technical protection, and prepare for future market and technological shocks. This highlights institutional focus on the long-term resilience and security of crypto assets.
Crypto analyst Ali said that Coinbase's stock price will face a key support test next week. If it holds above $141, it could rebound to $185; if it falls below that, it could drop to $74.
"New stock market guru" Serenity stated that while leading AI stocks were under pressure during the market correction, the underlying logic of AI infrastructure construction remains unchanged, with Broadcom projecting strong AI demand growth to 2028. The only substantial change is the market's rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Such pullbacks occur several times a year during record highs, and he personally will not trade on changes in Fed policy expectations, continuing to be bullish on companies with strong fundamentals and earnings guidance.
Serenity, the self-proclaimed "new stock market guru," responded to reports of his content being copied and profited from on Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), expressing his flattery and noting that a mini-economy has formed around his content. He emphasized that all his content is published free of charge, and the derivatives are publicly available information; if anyone charges for it, he hopes to at least provide additional value. He had previously stated that he only uses the X platform and warned against impersonation.
ZEC treasury provider Cypherpunk responded to market volatility by stating that all software has vulnerabilities, and that Bitcoin has historically been mistakenly "over-minted" by 184 billion BTC. However, they emphasized that blockchain technology should not be abandoned; instead, security should be enhanced through formal verification. With the development of AI, vulnerability detection is faster; the key is who discovers the problem first, a capability Zcash will demonstrate in its upcoming update. Previously, ZEC's stock price plummeted by over 50% in a single day after a security vulnerability was revealed that could lead to unlimited issuance.
Important data
A whale withdrew 1,723 bitcoins from OKX in a single day, worth $105.58 million.
In the past 24 hours, a whale withdrew 1,723.39 bitcoins from the OKX platform, worth $105.58 million.
Ethereum OG, which sold 60,000 ETH ($117.25 million) and 9,442 wstETH ($24 million) a week ago at approximately $2,040, is now buying back. Over the past two days, it spent $55.8 million to buy 35,723 ETH at an average price of $1,563, and may continue buying.
Bitcoin fell 17.3% this week, and Ethereum fell 22%, both potentially marking their largest weekly declines since November 2022. The digital asset market capitalization evaporated by approximately $390 billion, hovering above $2 trillion, less than half of its October peak. Leveraged positions were liquidated this week, with $5.7 billion held by long positions. The decline was driven by multiple negative factors: Strategy sold only 32 Bitcoins for the first time in nearly four years, unsettling investors; Bitcoin ETF assets continued to shrink, with some funds shifting to AI; AI exposed flaws in cryptographic protocols, such as Zcash, whose price plummeted by over 40% due to privacy vulnerabilities; and Friday's stronger-than-expected US jobs report led to renewed market expectations of a potential Fed rate hike, causing US Treasury yields to surge and the Nasdaq 100 to experience its worst single-day performance since April.
Over the past 24 hours, the "market maker" of Binance Life continued to buy $10 million worth of Binance Life tokens, driving the price up by 15%. On-chain addresses bought 8.62 million tokens ($6.33 million), while CEX withdrawal addresses withdrew 5.666 million tokens ($4.07 million) from Binance. The cumulative purchase this month is 56.887 million tokens ($39.1 million), with an average price of $0.687.
Over the past six years, South Korea's five major virtual asset trading platforms (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax) have experienced 57 hacker attacks and system failures, with total compensation amounting to approximately 7 billion won (about US$5.1 million). The number of incidents is as follows: Upbit 26, Bithumb 14, Gopax 8, Coinone 6, and Korbit 3. Bithumb compensated approximately 2.5 billion won for a BTC mis-issuance incident, Upbit compensated approximately 790 million won for hacker attacks, and approximately 3.2 billion won for system failures. The reporting standards and compensation methods differ among exchanges. Gopax counted asset listing errors as failures, while Bithumb only counted core service difficulties exceeding 10 minutes, and some compensation was distributed in the form of free vouchers. System failure compensation: Upbit approximately 3.21 billion won, Bithumb approximately 3.2 billion won, Coinone approximately 49 million won, and Korbit and Gopax did not provide compensation.
The USDC Treasury minted an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana blockchain.
The USDC Treasury has minted an additional 250 million USDC on the Solana chain.
Longling Capital transferred 10,000 ETH to Binance, worth $15.68 million.
Longling Capital transferred 10,000 ETH to Binance, worth $15.68 million.
A whale entered the market at a low price, spending 24 million USDT to buy ETH 20 minutes ago.
A whale entered the market on a dip, spending 24 million USDT to buy ETH 20 minutes ago. In just over a day, it spent $152 million USDT to buy 93,330 ETH, at an average price of $1,633. With maximum leverage, its 167,400 ETH ($261 million) position was liquidated at $1,356, approximately $200 from the current price.
A whale opened a short position in Bitcoin with 20x leverage and currently holds 1588 BTC.
In the past five hours, a whale opened a 20x leveraged short position in Bitcoin, currently holding 1,588 BTC, worth $96.78 million, with a liquidation price of $63,939.37.
Analysts: 345,000 ETH held by three major whales are facing liquidation risk, totaling $537 million.
Three major whales are facing liquidation risks, holding 345,000 ETH totaling $537 million: 1) A whale that has been cyclically going long on ETH since February, staking 152,195 ETH ($210 million) on Hyperliquid, with a health index as low as 1.16, and liquidation prices of $1,355.63 and $1,280.47; 2) A Bit-related entity holding 120,000 ETH long positions ($188 million) on Hyperliquid, with a floating loss of $84.48 million, and a liquidation price range of $1,241-$1,272; 3) A whale that has been cyclically going long on ETH for five years, staking 72,706.14 ETH ($113 million) on Aave, of which 31,915.13 ETH have already been liquidated, with liquidation prices of $1,472.12 and $1,458.81.
Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin has again deposited 30,000 ETH (approximately $47.12 million) into the Maker vault to mitigate liquidation risk. He currently has a total of 110,000 ETH (approximately $171 million) staked across three Maker vaults, with 259.05 million DAI borrowed. His continued replenishment of collateral has drawn attention amidst ETH market volatility.
