Author: Zuo Ye

I'm out of money, so I'll just have to keep your attention.

I'll end the live stream at 6 PM, change out of my OKEx clothes, and go have a few beers during the Binance liquidation.

Earn a commission by using your mom's KYC at the Meme counter's crazy Perp mall.

The opening act of 2026 witnessed the collapse of the exchange edifice. Unlike previous events that triggered direct shocks, such as large-scale liquidations or price spikes, the focus shifted away from exchanges, manifested in the inability of Binance Square and OKX Planet to attract new users.

When the inspirational stories of beautiful female dealers go unnoticed, the stock exchange has no choice but to go out and shout, "Look at the kids! You get paid to watch them for free!"

This article is dedicated to the first anniversary of Trump's inauguration. His presidential-level antics have given us a lot of emotional value.

Lie down and be money

Either erupt in silence or perish in silence.

Exchanges did nothing wrong in 2025, embracing Perp DEX and actively going on-chain, actively complying with regulations and cracking down on companies that offer rebates for hospitalized mothers. Just two days ago, Binance Wallet also held a Meme trading competition in response to OKX Wallet's smart account system.

In 2026, exchanges will not be able to produce any good products. Retail investors' attention will affect the flow of funds. BNB Chain's 2 million monthly active users are nothing more than a numbers game, like Twitter's million-dollar prize contest, which attracted success stories that lost their appeal in a day.

The wealth effect is changing its spokesperson; when people are focused on the $1,000 USD reward for creation, no one is bound to pay attention to the wealth story of $1,000x.

These facts all emphasize one thing: exchanges need people, not glamorous VIPs, but disheveled contract traders.

When you place an order to open a contract, you're a VIP; when you're liquidated and your account is wiped out, you're just a nobody.

A less precise calculation suggests that the lifespan of an outsider entering the crypto community is approximately 6 months, while the lifespan of a crypto KOL leading a single account is approximately 18 months. Regardless of the approach taken, the essence is the competition for the attention of individual users.

Unfortunately, exchanges' understanding of attention is still stuck in the pre-AI era, focused on KOLs. In the era of Vibe Coding, the value of code and media is declining exponentially. Not only are products worthless, but even ideas are worthless. Engineering trial and error can combine everything for A/B testing.

Dissemination capability is what gives content commercial value, but recommendation algorithms are not God. Musk's 100 million reposts are a liability for X. Only content that tames the algorithm can generate cash flow in the new era, which can both increase the platform's daily active users and attract advertisers to place orders.

In short, poetry cannot diminish Li Bai's value, and algorithms cannot iterate infinitely.

However, exchanges still treat retail investors as appendages of KOLs and media. My friend, times have changed. The era of retail investors making their own decisions has arrived.

Analyzing the role of content creators reveals that they are always caught between the exchange and retail investors, providing psychological support for retail investors' trading behavior, helping the exchange's brand department achieve its KPIs, and jointly slaughtering and exploiting batches of retail investors.

This doesn't mean that retail investors never have moments of awakening. The "smart investors" who remain in each cycle will remember the past and become beacons in the dark forest, evolving from the anti-fraud track to the troll track. No one can record the crypto world, but the crypto world grows its own memories.

Retail investors aren't refusing to spend money; rather, they've realized that their attention is the most valuable asset. This is a very simple principle. Domestic social media platforms like Xiaohongshu have been frantically blocking cryptocurrency content to make way for the digital yuan, and Twitter has significantly reduced its crypto weighting to reshape the user experience. Agencies, which only know how to swipe and spam, have already gone their separate ways with Kaito.

 Image caption: CZ's response

 Image source: @cz_binance

Amidst this bizarre double whammy of internal and external pressures, CZ can still console himself by claiming to be a "minor shareholder" of Twitter. This $500 million story is still used to comfort retail investors and create the illusion that Binance is very powerful, when in reality, Binance Square has been frantically recruiting new users.

If Binance does it, then OKX will do it too. If the leading platform does it, then Bitget and Gate will do it too. If KOLs don't join, they will directly pull content to pretend the ecosystem is thriving, and then report to the boss/leader to successfully poach them.

But all of this is fake. The attention of retail investors is an infinite mercy to KOLs, media, and exchanges. KOLs and media need this to obtain traffic to maintain their survival, and exchanges need the number of retail investors to obtain momentum to maintain a decent appearance. The park is a den of iniquity, and the platform is worth tens of thousands of dollars.

 Image caption: Rebate programs end, live streaming begins.

 Image source: @binancezh

Only on TikTok, outside of Twitter, can you find the public traffic that exchanges are so eager for. They were also among the first to realize this, with countless comments emphasizing that Viwers are not passive numbers, but living, breathing souls.

• In the adorable cat comment section, users know that the number of views for cat videos is very important, as it determines the quality and appearance of the cat food for the night. They know to willingly lie down and become cat food.

• In the comments section of "Overbearing Egg Boss," users appreciate the difficulty of meticulously crafting an egg, the successes and failures of several years of hard work in creating the account, and they know to willingly lie down and become the mother hen.

• In the comments section for widows, widowers, and the lonely, users actively liked and promoted the live stream's charitable acts, creating a positive cycle that judges actions over intentions. They knew they were willing to lie down and become rice and noodles.

Under intense "internet literacy" education, everyone is an internet user, and the arena of our time is the creation and destruction of gods. Everyone knows that their attention can be turned into money by algorithms, and everyone knows that their attention to a token is real money.

In the crypto industry, exchanges have always treated retail investors as passive fools and even tried to price KOLs based on their followers and number of fans in tiers. This will no longer happen. The awakening of retail investors will completely change the operating model of the entire industry.

Psychoanalysis of ineffective behavior

The frenzy of exchanges is nothing new, but the anxiety they feel over "content" is unprecedented.

However, this anxiety only leaves behind a thirst for emotional value, which cannot be truly transformed into trading value. The problem now is that retail investors know the value of their own attention, KOLs need to adapt to the changes in Twitter's algorithm, but exchanges are still playing it safe.

After Musk announced the Feed algorithm as promised, the "human touch" became the most valuable move. Mechanical interactions and matrix-based feeds were temporarily restricted, and now the moderators have become tireless Grok Transformers.

 Image caption: X Interaction Weight

 Data source: @elonmusk

Then the exchange is still bidding for OKX Planet's promotion based on KOL's number of followers. To be honest, Xu Mingxing should do a good job of market training for new employees. Simple employee benefits cannot attract retail investors to trade. OKX Wallet is 10,000 times better than Binance Wallet, but retail investors have not surpassed Binance.

If the wealth effect cannot be improved, at least the signs of flaunting wealth should be reduced.

Retail investors are having such a tough time, while exchange owners are living a life of luxury. This battle is over before it even begins. OKEx can't catch up with Binance, and Square can't surpass Twitter. All that's left is a deserted planet singing "Wrong, wrong, wrong."

Binance is anxious about OKEx's poor performance, while Musk is attacking from both sides.

If exchanges cannot provide emotional value to retail investors, then retail investors will not provide trading value to exchanges. KOLs are simply one link in the value transmission chain, thinking what retail investors think and being anxious about what CEXs are anxious about.

This process is very simple. Everyone knows that KOLs who shoot videos and write articles can turn traffic into real money. The more people watch, the more comments they make, and the longer they stay on the platform, the stronger the creator's ability to monetize on the platform becomes. In turn, KOLs can provide users with a better reading experience.

Then the exchanges, sensing the opportunity, demanded that KOLs sell their traffic to them and dump retail investors on the market, which led to the complete collapse of the market's microstructure.

Binance claims 300 million users, even more than Twitter's monetized monthly active users (mDAU) in 2021 by 100 million, but this is meaningless. It can be clearly stated that this anxiety about traffic can be quantified.

• Twitter's monthly active users are likely declining, with daily usage time on X/Twitter dropping from 34 minutes to 28 minutes. Nikita Bier's statement that X users read only 30 posts per day on Twitter confirms that there has been no significant growth.

• The US and Japan have the largest user base on Twitter, with around 100 million users in the US and around 20 million users in Hong Kong and Singapore. Considering that mainland Chinese users cannot access Twitter directly and need to use a proxy, it can be estimated that the number of Chinese Twitter users in the cryptocurrency community is at most in the millions.

So why do Binance and OKEx need to grow their user base from millions of users, and why does the conversion rate to their own platforms decrease exponentially? We can conclude that the attention of tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people can support Binance's total user base of 300 million.

In interpersonal relationship theory, the six degrees of separation theory refers to the difficulty of information dissemination. The information network can only transmit to a maximum of 6 people. There is also a three-degree influence index, which refers to how each person can influence the behavior of "friends of friends". Assuming a KOL has 20 friends, their maximum influence is 20 x 20 x 20 = 8000 people. This is not the upper limit of dissemination power, but it is the upper limit of the ability to generate sales.

Unfortunately, Dunbar's number still limits the extent of its influence. 150 people is the contact circle we can reach because there is a high degree of overlap among cryptocurrency users. You can see similar KOLs and exchange operators in every group. Believe me, the retail investors who are just there to entertain you in each group are roughly the same group of people.

 Image caption: Across the vast mountains and fields, you are the joy I hide in the gentle breeze.

Under repeated cross-influences, OKX Planet can at most attract third-rate wed3 KOLs who can't even get into Binance Square, while at least Dragon Mom goes to BNB Chain.

Do you remember the lifecycle of retail investors and KOLs? At least the NFT groups I joined are completely inactive now.

Conclusion

Humility is an attitude towards life, while ascension is a choice in life.

Broadcasting to the entire universe, every bit of attention we give to exchanges is a blessing, especially during these difficult times for the industry. This is not a way for exchanges to exploit users.

Exchanges now need to consider one thing: whether to focus their remaining attention on monetization, letting employees flaunt their wealth to satisfy bosses and shareholders, or to treat retail investors with a "serving God" attitude, focusing on creating high-quality content and letting traffic grow naturally.