Written by: angelilu, Foresight News

"Those who shorted crude oil are absolutely fired up."

When on-chain analyst Ai posted this tweet on the morning of March 9, WTI crude oil had touched $108 per barrel. The top-ranked Hyperliquid account was facing a floating loss of nearly $3.4 million, with a liquidation price set at $120.76.

As of this writing, the WTI crude oil contract price reached a high of $119.5 during the session and is currently trading at $114.5, representing a cumulative increase of over 25% compared to Friday's closing price.

Crude oil prices surged by over 40% in a week due to a strait.

The story begins in the Strait of Hormuz in Iran.

By March 9, the Strait of Hormuz had been almost completely blocked for the seventh consecutive day. The shutdown of this vital waterway, carrying approximately 20% of the world's oil supply, triggered severe market turmoil. By March 9, WTI crude oil prices had surged in just one week, setting a record for volatility rarely seen in recent years, with a cumulative increase of over 40% compared to before the conflict.

The shockwaves spread rapidly. The Nikkei index fell 5.4% in a single day, marking its biggest drop since the tariff crisis began; South Korea's KOSPI plummeted 7%; and Germany's DAX fell more than 3%. Bitcoin was not spared either, falling below $66,000, with $120 million liquidated in the crypto market within an hour. The crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12, indicating the market had entered the "extreme fear" zone.

But on Hyperliquid, another war is raging.

Three stories about shorting crude oil

In the blockchain community, CBB (@Cbb0fe) is not an unfamiliar face. A few months ago, he publicly formed a team specifically to "hunt" another whale, @qwatio. This time, it's his turn to be the prey.

https://x.com/lookonchain/status/2030817006107369727

According to Lookonchain monitoring, CBB shorted 127,175 xyz:CL (WTI crude oil mapping contract) at an average price of $78.37, with a notional value of approximately $13.78 million. As oil prices have soared, his unrealized losses have reached $3.81 million, with the liquidation price hovering at $120.76.

There's still a few tenths of a dollar's difference from that figure. But nobody knows when the situation in Iran will de-escalate.

Another account, "2 frères 2 fauves," is in a similarly precarious situation. It entered a short position at $78.36 and currently holds 12,717 CL contracts, with a notional value of approximately $13.37 million, making it the top-ranked CL contract holder on Hyperliquid. It has a paper loss of $3.4 million, with a liquidation price of $120.76.

Even more dramatic was the fate of whale 0x8Af7. He shorted 72,179 CL (approximately $7.8 million), but as oil prices rose, all his short positions were forcibly liquidated, resulting in a loss of over $1.55 million.

However, less than a few hours after the liquidation was completed, he immediately reopened his position—60,166 new short positions, with a notional value of $6.48 million.

Was it a misreading or an incurable gambling habit? Perhaps both. But this choice itself reveals a certain characteristic of high-leverage on-chain trading: liquidation is not the end, but merely the end of the previous round.

There are also winners: another side of Sky co-founders.

While on the same Hyperliquid platform, at the same time, Rune Christensen, co-founder of Sky (formerly MakerDAO), was observing the situation from the other side.

According to on-chain analyst EmberCN, RuneKek (Rune's on-chain account) went long on crude oil contracts worth approximately $7.82 million, with a cost basis around $93. As of today, with oil prices reaching $109, his unrealized profit has exceeded $1.36 million.

What's even more noteworthy is his portfolio strategy: while going long on crude oil, he also shorted ETH and XYZ100 (a US stock index futures contract). This makes his strategy more like a hedging logic targeting geopolitical conflicts—crude oil benefits from war premiums, while stocks and cryptocurrencies are pressured by risk aversion; by positioning on both sides simultaneously, he hedges against the risk of a one-sided bet.

Rune Christensen is the founder of a DeFi protocol who built a macro hedging portfolio using on-chain perpetual contracts. This achievement itself is more noteworthy than how much money he made.

On-chain Commodities: New Tools, Old Lessons

This round of crude oil price fluctuations has brought a previously inconspicuous topic to the forefront: on-chain commodity trading.

Crude oil on Hyperliquid was launched on January 9, 2026, approximately two months ago, via the Felix Protocol (the HIP-3 marketplace provider on Hyperliquid). Initial parameters included a maximum leverage of 5x and an outstanding balance cap of $2.5 million, making it an early, small-scale launch. Trading volume only truly surged after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz.

Platforms like Phantom have also launched perpetual contracts for traditional commodities such as crude oil and gold. In theory, anyone can trade crude oil futures like Bitcoin with just a wallet, without needing a traditional futures account or a broker.

This is real financial democratization. But the other side of the coin is equally real.

Traditional commodity futures markets have strict margin requirements, circuit breaker mechanisms, and position limits, with brokerage risk control teams constantly monitoring the market. On-chain perpetual contracts have much simpler rules: when the position value falls to the liquidation line, the system automatically liquidates the position without phone alerts or human intervention.

The liquidation prices for CBB and 2 frères 2 fauves are all around $120.76—this number is not random, but rather a "margin of safety" calculated when they initially established their positions. In normal oil price fluctuations, there is still more than fifty dollars of room to move away from the entry price of $78, which seems quite ample.

But what they didn't expect was that a geopolitical crisis could cause crude oil prices to rise by 50% within 72 hours.

This isn't a strategic mistake; it's a black swan event. The problem is, there's no mechanism on the blockchain that gives you a breather when a black swan event occurs.

When DeFi Meets the Hormuz

The connection between the crypto market and traditional geopolitics is happening faster than anyone anticipated.

Hyperliquid users now need to keep a close eye on the latest developments in Iran's Strait of Hormuz; meanwhile, DeFi OGs are using on-chain derivatives to hedge against the risks of war.

As the range of on-chain commodities and on-chain US stock-mapped contracts continues to expand, on-chain players will only become more exposed to macroeconomic risks. In the traditional financial world, this is called a "global macro strategy," requiring a professional team and a robust risk control system. On-chain, it's called "one person's position."