Next week's macro outlook: Trump and the Federal Reserve's "Game of Thrones" intensifies, and expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut are rekindled

PANews reported on August 30th that the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant sell-off this week, but this followed a strong performance the previous week. This was not entirely surprising, given the decline in volatility and the upcoming release of key data next week, which has resulted in some relatively weak highs. Bitcoin faces the risk of a double top and has not offered much to counteract its impact, while Ethereum has retreated further after hitting a new high last Saturday. Ethereum's prospects are better than those of its "big brother" Bitcoin, but its performance will still depend on Bitcoin's performance. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

At 9:00 PM on Wednesday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussallem will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

At 22:00 on Wednesday, the US July JOLTs job vacancies and the US July factory orders monthly rate will be released;

At 1:30 a.m. on Thursday, Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and President of the Minneapolis Fed, will participate in a fireside chat.

At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 30 and the U.S. trade account for July will be released;

At 23:30 on Thursday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech at the New York Economic Club;

At 07:00 on Friday, Goolsbee, a 2025 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Fed, will deliver a speech;

At 20:30 on Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in August, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in August, and the average hourly wage annual and monthly rates will be released.

The continued weakness in the labor market will not only reinforce market expectations for a September rate cut, but will also rekindle expectations for a third 25 basis point rate cut this year. In his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Powell emphasized that in the short term, inflation risks are tilted to the upside, while employment risks are tilted to the downside.

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Author: PA一线

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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