1. Market observation

Last week, the US market was closed for three days due to the Independence Day holiday and the weekend, and market sentiment was highly nervous before reopening. During this period, the "Big and Beautiful" bill signed by the Trump administration and the adjustment of tariff policy became the focus. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick revealed that higher tariffs may take effect on August 1. At the same time, the US stock market hit a record high almost every day in the past week. Investors' optimism about the global economic outlook promoted the "TACO" trading model, but asset management companies' excessive bullishness on US stocks may lead to concentrated market positions. Once bad news appears, volatility may increase.

In addition, the Hong Kong market has set its sights on stablecoins, the key infrastructure that supports the value circulation of the entire crypto world. Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey, said that the key to the prosperity of stablecoins lies in whether the public chain can meet its value circulation needs. Data shows that in the first quarter of 2025, the USDT transaction volume on TRON accounted for more than 50%, surpassing Ethereum for the first time. He said that HashKey Chain, as a compliant public chain, builds a closed loop of "issuance-scenario-assetization", helps stablecoins integrate into the financial system, and improves the issuance and circulation efficiency through the HashKey ecosystem.

In the cryptocurrency market, eight Bitcoin addresses that had been silent for 14 years were suddenly activated last Friday, transferring a total of 80,000 Bitcoins, causing market panic and Bitcoin falling 1.46% on the day. Although the market is concerned that the sell-off may have a huge impact on prices, blockchain intelligence company Arkham believes that the transfer is more likely to be a technical wallet upgrade to improve security and reduce transaction fees. In addition, traders are paying close attention to the Bitcoin futures gap on CME. Analyst CryptoJack pointed out that the gap is at $107,570, which is generally regarded by the market as a potential price return target. For the future market, analysts have given different price expectations: well-known analyst Pentoshi expects that this week may set a record high, and if it breaks through, the price may quickly rise to the $118,000 to $120,000 range. Arslan Butt pointed out that if it falls below $107,800, the target price will be $107,208 to $106,275; AlphaBTC also pays attention to the support below, and believes that it is necessary to pay attention to whether the CME gap is filled and whether the bullish order block near $106,000 can be held.

Regarding Ethereum, Eugene, a well-known crypto trader, said that he chose to bet on ETH after careful consideration and believed that the market is expected to rise this week. He mentioned that the market positioning and driving force of ETH have changed significantly. Since the market crash in April, ETH/BTC has hit a multi-year low of 0.018, and the market position has been significantly reduced. The current structural position is at its lowest level in three years. In addition, ETH is considered to be the first choice for institutions and traditional finance to bet on infrastructure and stablecoins. ETH carries more than 90% of the TVL of stablecoins. As the United States promotes stablecoin-related regulations, ETH is expected to continue to be the main chain and attract more institutional attention. Eugene also mentioned that the price of ETH still has a large room for catch-up compared to BTC. If BTC breaks through $110,000, the bull market may restart, and ETH usually performs strongly during this period. He believes that ETH has the potential for a medium-term rebound and has adjusted his position accordingly.

In the altcoin market, the Meme projects of the BONK ecosystem have performed well. Among them, the token issuance platform LetsBONK surpassed Pump.fun for the first time in terms of daily token issuance, number of graduated tokens and trading volume. The price of its own token doubled, and the market value reached 11.5 million US dollars. $BONK itself also performed strongly, with a 24-hour increase of more than 16% and a 60% increase in the past two weeks. The market value of another project USELESS once exceeded 300 million US dollars yesterday and is currently stable at 280 million US dollars. At the same time, Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" over the weekend. The 24-hour trading volume of the related token america on the Bonk platform reached 28.8 million US dollars, with a market value of 5.6 million US dollars.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on July 7)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $109,165 (+16.58% YTD), daily spot volume $18.15 billion

• Ethereum: $2,575.46 (-22.97% YTD), with daily spot volume of $12.522 billion

• Fear of corruption index: 52 (neutral)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.12 sat/vB, ETH: 2.4 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 64.5%, ETH 9.2%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BONK, BTC, CBK, ETH

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0157

• Sector gains and losses: Meme sector rose 5.8%; RWA sector rose 4.12%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 59,563 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$182 million, including BTC liquidation of US$62.89 million, ETH liquidation of US$35.21 million, and BONK liquidation of US$12.51 million

• BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($108,399.51), lower channel line ($106,252.99)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($2514.00), lower channel line ($2464.22)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (June 30 to July 6)

• Bitcoin ETF: Net inflow of $770 million last week, net inflow for four consecutive weeks

• Ethereum ETF: Net inflow of $219 million last week, net inflow for eight consecutive weeks

4. Today’s Outlook

• OKX will delist X, BSV, GOG, DIA, BONE and OXT pairs on July 7

• Binance will upgrade its spot API on July 8, and the upgrade is expected to last up to 2 hours

• US President Trump will begin sending tariff letters to other countries. (July 8, 0:00)

• Neon (NEON) will unlock approximately 53.91 million tokens at 8 am on July 7, accounting for 22.51% of the current circulation, worth approximately US$5 million;

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market value today: Cobak Token (CBK) up 26.64%, BUILDon (B) up 23.82%, Launch Coin on Believe (LAUNCHCOIN) up 18.50%, HEX (HEX) up 17.6%, and FLOKI (FLOKI) up 15%.

5. Hot News

• Data: CHEEL, APT, IMX and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking, among which CHEEL unlocking value is about 17.4 million US dollars

• This week's preview | Trump said he has no intention of extending the tariff suspension period beyond July 9; the Federal Reserve released minutes of its monetary policy meeting

• Macro Outlook This Week: Countdown to Trump’s Tariff “Final Review”

• The popularity of virtual assets has spread to A-shares, and many listed companies have been asked about their stablecoin layout

• Pension consulting firm Cartwright helped a client allocate 3% of its assets to Bitcoin and earned a 60% return

• Voting for Musk's "American Party" ends with 65.4% support

• Ethereum Community Fund: Committed to pushing ETH to $10,000, details of follow-up work will be released soon

• Analyst: For new companies, the bonus period of Bitcoin treasury strategy may have ended

• Data: More than 30.4% of Bitcoin has not been touched in more than 5 years

• Binance Wallet Exclusive TGE 29 to List BOOM

• Derive: As BTC and ETH volatility drops in June, options traders bet on a “big rally” in July

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.