With the US government restarting, the biggest negative factor has come to an end. Inflation and national debt have become key factors for Bitcoin liquidity. The US Senate passed a short-term funding bill to fund government agencies until January 30, 2026, which has now been submitted to the House of Representatives for approval.

The bill will end the 41-day government shutdown, allowing shut-down statistical agencies to resume operations, government bond auctions to return to normal, and the resumption of official data releases that support interest rate expectations and the value of the dollar. As a result, inflation data and government bond issuance will once again become core variables affecting the price of Bitcoin.

For cryptocurrencies, the core value of government reopening lies in restoring the supply of macroeconomic data, bringing government bond issuance back to a predictable pace, and clarifying the short-term trend of real interest rates. These factors directly influence Bitcoin's market risk appetite and spot ETF fund flows.

During the shutdown, agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of key data. Now the data calendar is clear: October CPI and real income data will be released on November 13, PPI on November 14, and import and export price indices on November 18. These data will shift market focus from fiscal news back to inflation and the labor market, thereby adjusting interest rate bets and the dollar's trajectory.

For Bitcoin, the implied real interest rate of 10-year TIPS is a key indicator, currently at 1.83%, higher than mid-year levels.

If CPI data is moderate, real interest rates are expected to decline, and the financial environment will be more relaxed, which will benefit risk assets and may also tighten ETF spreads and improve the depth of the cryptocurrency secondary market. Current cryptocurrency order book depth is significantly higher than in 2022-2023, with lower slippage for large transactions, allowing macro-driven capital flows to be transmitted to prices more smoothly.

The government bond supply plan is clear: quarterly refinancing will issue a total of $125 billion in 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year bonds, raising $26.8 billion in new financing. Auctions will be conducted in stages from Monday to Thursday.

The Ministry of Finance has made it clear that it will maintain stable bond coupon rates in the coming quarters, flexibly adjust funds through treasury bills, and conduct repurchase operations to support the market. This will reduce short-term term premium fluctuations and make CPI the core influencing factor on interest rate trends.

As of November 7, the Treasury’s general account (TGA) balance reached $943 billion, higher than the same period in 2024, providing a buffer for the normalization of auctions.

The current nominal yield on 10-year Treasury bonds is around 4.1%, and the interaction between CPI data and Treasury bond issuance will dominate the direction of interest rates this week.

In addition, the fund flows of spot Bitcoin ETFs remain an important variable, with record inflows in early October, followed by net outflows from US regional funds in early November.

In the next 1-2 weeks, Bitcoin liquidity will face three main challenges:

First, with CPI meeting targets and government bond refinancing proceeding smoothly, real interest rates have fallen to 1.6%-1.7%, the US dollar has weakened, and ETFs may see a slight net inflow.

Secondly, with high CPI and the Ministry of Finance issuing more treasury bonds, the real interest rate exceeded 1.9%, ETF outflows resumed, and cryptocurrencies showed a defensive trend.

Third, if the House of Representatives' approval is hindered or the CPI data is abnormal, causing fluctuations in capital flows, institutions will closely monitor signals from the issuance and repurchase plans of treasury bonds.

With current real interest rates high, Bitcoin prices will react to inflation data and the dollar's performance.