Note: This column publishes historical research reports of companies in chronological order from old to new for readers' retrospective reference. The views and data in this article are based on the original research time, and some information may have changed.
Macro Overview
Overall environment
Global conflicts and uncertainties continue , and financial asset prices continue to fluctuate disorderly amid global monetary easing and risk aversion.
The domestic market continues to be characterized by low asset returns and flat asset prices , and investors need to focus on relative alpha logic. Due to the spillover of uncertainty from the Trump administration, some assets in overseas markets are oversold or have reached a turning point.
Important macro events
Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates: Ukraine launches drone attacks on Russian air force bases, claiming to have destroyed 34% of strategic military aircraft.
OPEC+ Meeting: The OPEC+ ministerial meeting held on June 2 decided to extend the production cut agreement to 2025 in an effort to stabilize oil prices.
Tariff policy expected to fluctuate: Trump posted on the "real social" platform that the import tariffs on steel and aluminum will be increased from 25% to 50% starting June 4.
Investment tips and major asset class strategies
1. Interest rate bond market analysis
Market status: Bank deposits moved, bond redemptions overlapped with repeated tariff news, yields rose first and then fell, and the bond market continued to fluctuate weakly. However, the funding side did not tighten significantly. The central bank injected liquidity for 10 consecutive trading days from May 16 to 29 to protect the market.
Future Outlook: The net financing scale of interest-bearing bonds in June may be higher than that in May. The maturity of MLF, reverse repo and interbank certificates of deposit is large, and there is seasonal liquidity pressure. The short-term downward space of the bond market is limited, but institutions expect that the central bank may resume the purchase of government bonds in July-August, and interest rates may still have room to fall.
Domestic interest rate and bond phase strategy - buy more as the market adjusts, gradually build positions, and do swing trading in reverse
Pay attention to the negative impact brought by the stock-bond gyrations, as well as the issuance status of science and technology innovation bonds, government bonds and certificates of deposit.
The trading value of the 10-year Treasury bond above 1.7% is clear, and it can be compared with the 10-year government development bond or the 30-year Treasury bond, which has a positive carry coupon.
2. Credit bond market analysis
Supply and demand pattern: In the first five months, the supply of credit bonds was in short supply, the subscription multiples of primary issuance were mostly 3 to 5 times, and the demand for funds was strong.
Investment opportunities: During the downward trend of interest rates, although the yield on holding bonds has decreased, the primary and secondary premiums have formed good investment opportunities, and long-term bonds are more attractive after the duration is magnified. In the context of low medium- and long-term asset returns and deflation, the further narrowing of transaction credit spreads has become a market consensus.
Domestic credit bond strategy at this stage: Seize the mid-year discount and appropriately extend the duration
In the near term, it is appropriate to sell overvalued credit bonds, recover cash, and seize the seasonal liquidity opportunity at the end of June.
In the next stage, we will adopt a long-term strategy appropriately under the premise of reasonably controlling liquidity risk and differentiate the pricing of different entities or targets.
3. Analysis of A- share and Hong Kong stock market
This week, the equity market was complicated and volatile as global trade policy fluctuations and industry dynamics intertwined. The key points are as follows:
(1) Trade policy disturbances and market responses
The US policy game has caused a large fluctuation in risk appetite, and the domestic commodity market has insufficient confidence in the fundamental improvement of the tariff suspension;
Short-term sentiment is positive but long-term policy sustainability is questionable.
(2) Resonance between performance and policy
NVIDIA's better-than-expected results drove the market higher;
The favorable stable currency policies of China and the United States have brought about phased opportunities for related sectors.
(3) Main line of Hong Kong stocks
New consumer sector: consumption upgrade + demand growth, outstanding resilience and potential;
Innovative drug sector: driven by both policy and demand, it continues to attract market attention;
* Both sectors are expected to remain strong.
(4) CSI 1000 Index Futures
The deep discount has reached a relatively high historical level. The probability of neutral strategies reducing positions and waiting continues to increase, and the risks of small and micro stocks are accumulating.
Equity market strategy at this stage: reduce A- shares and increase Hong Kong stocks
A-share market: Appropriate reduction of positions to avoid uncertainty risks;
Individual stocks are stronger than the index, so focus on seizing individual stock opportunities;
Be highly alert to the risks of small and micro-cap stocks brought about by the neutral strategy of taking profits and waiting in A-shares.
Hong Kong stock market: The capital boom in the Hong Kong stock market is likely to continue.
In the near future, we will focus on the technology growth sector and the Hong Kong-listed innovative drug sector opportunities and invest in individual stocks when the time is right.
From a medium-term perspective, Hong Kong stocks are the first choice for foreign investment in Chinese assets. Even under the equalization and global asset rebalancing, the incremental gap is the largest market. Maintain the strategy of buying on pullbacks.
4. Convertible bond market analysis
Market status: A-shares present a "big weak and small strong" trend and are now in a performance and policy vacuum period. Heavyweight stocks are sluggish due to weak performance, while small-cap stocks benefit from loose liquidity and rise.
Valuation: As of May 29, the median convertible bond price was 120.76, and the median YTM was -1.47%, similar to last week and close to the median level in the past 22 years.
Liquidity remains stable. A-share trading volume has been declining week by week since this month, and small-cap stocks are under increasing adjustment pressure.
The recent increase in the underlying stocks of convertible bonds is not large (some stocks with large increases have already taken profits), and the retracement of double-low convertible bonds is controllable .
The strategy of convertible bond market at this stage: high diversification and timely bargain hunting
In May and June, we captured targets that were mistakenly killed due to rating changes, and continued to capture high and low rotation opportunities.
The overall portfolio maintains a high degree of diversification to mitigate position risks.
5. Commodity market analysis
Macro level: The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% (previous value was 49.0%), which was the same as expected. Considering the low base caused by the tariff impact in April , this upward range is not strong. Specifically, the infrastructure and real estate sectors of non-ferrous metals have the recent characteristics of "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag". Macro-level commodity demand has not improved.
Political factors: Trump announced that the tariffs on steel and aluminum would be raised from 25% to 50%, which will have little actual impact on Shanghai Aluminum . If the price drops sharply, short-term long positions can be taken.
Fundamentals: Destocking data shows that the off-season is not dull. Multiple factors such as the end of the rush to install photovoltaic power in June (negative), the 90-day suspension of US tariffs (positive), and the 618 promotion subsidies for home appliances and automobiles (positive) hedge against each other. From a fundamental perspective, commodities are likely to continue to move sideways.
Commodity futures strategy at this stage:
Shanghai Gold: Continue to hold long gold futures for risk hedging.
Shanghai Copper: Treat it as a shock. If it opens with a sharp rise to the upper edge of the range, take profit and reduce positions.
Rebar: The off-season is coming, choose the right time to add short positions.
Shanghai Nickel: Mainly a recovery trend driven by events (rumor of a substantial relaxation of nickel ore quotas), with no significant changes in fundamentals. Short on rallies.
Shanghai Aluminum: If it drops sharply due to tariffs, go long in the short term.
6. Overseas market assets - US bonds and US stocks
◆ Macro factors:
Weak recovery: GDP contraction + weak manufacturing vs. resilient corporate investment (Markit Composite PMI 52.1);
Core disturbance: Inflation stickiness + policy uncertainty (tariff fluctuations and fiscal deficits) may delay the Fed’s monetary policy shift;
Focus: June non-farm and CPI data confirmed the "stagflation" signal. Trump's tariff policy may further fluctuate, making the market's risk appetite at a poor level.
The 40-year bond auction held by the Japanese Ministry of Finance on the 28th was met with a cold reception, with the bid multiple being only 2.2 times, a record low since July last year, indicating that the market demand for ultra-long-term Japanese bonds is weak. This may further exacerbate the disturbance of market liquidity.
(Data timeliness reminder: Some indicators (such as GDP ) are revised values. The final data will be released on June 26 , and there may be adjustment risks.)
(1) Analysis of the U.S. bond market
Recently, economic data has been updated one after another, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly (CME rate cut expectations are stable in September). The short-term is mainly affected by the expected inflation caused by tariff disturbances and fiscal disturbances. The fluctuations in the long-term 10Y and 30Y yields are mainly affected by the mismatch between global bond supply and demand. In the long run, central banks of various countries have the ability to maintain stability (mainly through bond purchases and QE to stabilize long-term interest rates), and the current yield of US bonds has a high cost-effectiveness. However, in the short term, beware of the upward risk of long-term yields caused by supply and demand mismatches and insufficient liquidity.
US bond strategy at this stage: Before the tariffs and fiscal bill are finally implemented in July, continue the left-side dip allocation strategy and control duration risk and leverage.
( 2 ) Analysis of the U.S. stock market
In the context of global debt, if gold and BTC are promoted as a hedge and an allocation strategy under the continuous monetary easing by global central banks, then the equity market itself can also be used as an investment target to fight inflation and continue quantitative easing (debt reduction).
US stock strategy at this stage: In the short term, the US stock index will continue to fluctuate sideways. Focus on listed companies with high dividends and continuous stable cash flow that are not sensitive to high interest rates (such as big technology and multinational companies). On the one hand, the US dollar cannot continue to fall, and the depreciation of the US dollar against non-US currencies is also good for multinational companies with overseas income.
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