RWA炼金术士
RWA炼金术士- GC专栏是由金洲资管（Golden Continent）推出的金融资产代币化专栏平台，专注于探索传统金融与区块链技术的融合边界，构建传统金融与Web3世界的桥梁。 金洲资管投研团队深耕全球资本市场逾二十年，拥有成熟的宏观对冲基金策略体系和专业的多资产分析框架。我们将这一套行之有效的传统金融投资理念与方法论，延伸并重构于链上，致力于推动现实世界资产（RWA）的智能化、透明化与代币化。 RWA炼金术士- GC专栏不仅是一个信息平台，更是一个连接机构投资者、RWA研究者与Web3构建者的思想枢纽。我们相信，只有真正理解传统金融底层逻辑，才能推动区块链金融迈向可持续、高质量的发展路径。 Slogan：解码金融资产代币化的真实价值
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Policy narratives dominate short-term sentiment, but weak fundamentals (particularly on the demand side) may trigger a correction in asset prices. Be wary of overheated adjustments in commodity and stock markets, and pay attention to the linkage between liquidity and equity markets.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-29 02:48
The US CPI rose 2.7% in June, showing resilience. Domestic special bonds provided support, contributing to higher-than-expected social financing in June. The US Department of Commerce verbally approved Nvidia's continued export of H20 chips to China, potentially extending the tariff suspension period beyond August 12.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-29 02:36
In terms of the domestic macro environment, CPI turned positive year-on-year in June, but PPI continued to decline, indicating that industrial deflationary pressure has not been relieved and domestic demand is still weak. The "anti-involution" policy supports industries with excess capacity, but the sustainability of price recovery is questionable. Overseas, the Trump administration has raised tariffs on many countries to 30%-35%, and the probability of policy realization has increased, reflecting its fiscal and election considerations. In terms of investment strategy, interest rate bonds are volatile and weak, and credit bond spreads are narrowing, so valuation risks need to be guarded against. A-shares fluctuated upward, banks and steel sectors performed well, and defensive sectors of Hong Kong stocks were favored. Convertible bond valuations are high, and individual bonds are more differentiated. The commodity market is driven by policy expectations, but fundamentals are differentiated. U.S. bonds have become a safe haven for funds due to overseas fiscal concerns, and their attractiveness has increased. The overall market remains highly volatile under the game between policies and funds.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-17 02:53
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong, and the non-farm employment data in June exceeded expectations, but structural concerns still exist, and inflation stickiness makes it difficult for the Fed to turn around. China's economic recovery is slowing down, and the PMI in June showed marginal improvement but did not stabilize in the expansion range. The policy may increase "loose fiscal policy + stable monetary policy". Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which significantly cut taxes and cut spending, which may increase the fiscal deficit. China's policy focus has shifted to "bottom-up growth + efficiency-enhancing structure" to promote new quality productivity and equipment upgrades. Funding risk appetite has rebounded, short-term interest rates in the bond market have fallen, credit bond trading has warmed up, A-share transactions have been active, and some sectors of Hong Kong stocks have retreated. The commodity market was boosted by the rebound in PMI, but tariff uncertainty increased. U.S. bonds and stocks were affected by employment data, and the market lowered expectations for a rate cut in July.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-17 02:48
The conflict between Israel and Iran has been suspended, but nuclear threats and regional security remain tense. The Federal Reserve released a signal of interest rate cuts and monetary policy shifted. China's industrial profit growth rate fell in May, weak demand dragged down the economy, and fiscal policy increased the "double" and "two new" areas. U.S. durable goods orders rebounded, but real estate sales and consumer confidence were sluggish. In the bond market, interest-bearing bonds were dominated by easing expectations, credit bond trading was differentiated, and overseas bond issuance heated up. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were boosted by policy and regional easing, and technology and high-interest sectors received attention. The convertible bond index hit a new high, and the strategy was mainly to stop profit. Commodity market sentiment improved, but economic fundamentals constrained price elasticity. U.S. bond yields are falling, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The strategy recommends gradually increasing holdings of U.S. bonds.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-17 02:40
The yield of interest-bearing bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, the funding situation was stable, the disturbance of cross-tax period was digested, and the decline of overnight and 7-day interest rates showed that liquidity improved. The market tended to trade in July in advance, paying attention to the renewal of MLF, the renewal of 30-year treasury bonds and real estate policies. The yield of credit bonds declined, the sentiment was warmer, the performance of the medium and long end was better than the short end, and the credit spread narrowed; the interest rate of new issuance in the primary market hit a new low this year, and the transaction in the secondary market was active. The buying orders in high-yield regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou and Shandong increased. The marginal loosening of Chinese overseas bond issuance, Henan's new issuance subscription was good, which was reportedly related to the local government's debt resolution. Many places counted the demand for overseas bonds and relaxed regulatory policies. A-share sentiment has recovered after adjustment, but risk-off sentiment still exists. Technology chain and defense and military trade sectors may have opportunities; Hong Kong stocks fluctuated upward, high dividends and technology Internet are attractive. The convertible bond market presents a "high price, low valuation" pattern, the premium rate is at a four-year low, and liquidity remains active.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-17 02:26
Analysis of the interest rate bond market shows that yields fluctuated downward across the board, with 10-year treasury bond yields approaching historical lows. Changes in commercial bank liquidity became the dominant factor, bond market leverage rose, and some bond funds implemented purchase restrictions to curb overheating. In the credit bond market, primary issuance rates generally declined, low- and medium-rated municipal investment bonds in the secondary market performed strongly, and overseas bond yields continued to decline. The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets were active, but it became more difficult to increase risk appetite, and Hong Kong stocks were greatly affected by the confusion of overseas interest rate cut expectations. The convertible bond market valuation was at a low level, and the rebound was supported by the recovery of liquidity. The commodity market was affected by the weak domestic recovery and international geopolitical conflicts, and its performance was differentiated. The U.S. bond market is disturbed by inflation, and the RMB appreciation momentum continues, but weak domestic demand remains a hidden concern.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-17 02:11
At the macro level, the Sino-US dialogue has eased but the contradictions still exist. We need to be vigilant about the divergence of US economic data and the potential transfer of conflicts. Global central bank policies are divergent. The Federal Reserve maintains a wait-and-see attitude on interest rates, the European Central Bank has started a gradual easing, and China's deflationary pressure continues. This week, we will focus on the US-China economic and trade talks, the ECB's interest rate cuts, and the signals of the G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to build a left position for interest-bearing bonds and enter and exit quickly; credit bonds continue to have asset shortages, and it is recommended to extend the duration appropriately; A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are recommended to establish a dividend-technology portfolio, and pay attention to Hong Kong stock IPOs; convertible bonds maintain an appropriate cash position; the commodity market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy focuses on selling high and buying low; overseas markets pay attention to the valuation cost-effectiveness of US bonds and the opportunity for a correction in technology stocks.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-16 02:46
Trump's recent public pressure on the Fed has caused market turmoil, with U.S. bond yields soaring and U.S. stocks plummeting, exacerbating investors' concerns about the Fed's independence. The report proposes four scenarios: limited compromise (40% probability) may be the baseline scenario, which may bring about a phased recovery in the market; if the Fed insists on independence (30% probability), defensive assets will have an advantage. It is recommended to increase holdings of 5-10 year U.S. bonds to hedge against interest rate fluctuations, U.S. stocks to focus on value styles, gold (10% position) to prevent tail risks, and crude oil to be deployed on dips. The evolution of the event is highly dependent on policy games, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the statements of Congress and changes in market sentiment.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-08 09:26
The current global macro environment continues to be highly uncertain, and geopolitical conflicts and policy fluctuations have exacerbated asset price fluctuations. The domestic market maintains low-return characteristics. Interest-rate bonds are under pressure in the short term, but there may be a window for allocation in the medium term. Credit bonds are recommended to seize the liquidity opportunities in the middle of the year and appropriately extend the duration; A-shares need to be wary of small and micro-cap risks. Hong Kong stocks benefit from the return of foreign capital and the resilience of the main lines of consumption and innovative drugs, and can be deployed on dips. The commodity market is intertwined with long and short factors, and the hedging value of gold is prominent. Industrial products are mainly operated in waves. In the overseas market, the left-side allocation value of US bonds is apparent, but liquidity shocks need to be prevented. US stocks focus on high dividends and multinational companies to cope with policy uncertainties. The overall strategy needs to take into account both defensive and structural opportunities, and dynamically adjust positions to respond to potential turning points.
RWA炼金术士2025-07-08 08:55
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