Macro Overview
Important Events
On June 21, US President Trump announced a military strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities, warning that further action would be taken if Iran "cannot achieve peace". (Currently, the US "formal strike" has been completed, and a "ceasefire" transaction is expected)
On June 18, the Federal Reserve maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive time that the policy rate remained unchanged.
The 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened in Shanghai on June 18, with central bank governor Pan Gongsheng announcing eight financial opening measures covering financial infrastructure, digital finance, cross-border trade and regulatory innovation.
Economic data
1. China's June EPMI China Emerging Industry Index was 47.9, down 3.1 from the previous month and 1.4 from the same period last year, weaker than seasonal performance. The economy is still in a weak recovery channel, and the focus will be on the PMI data next week.
2. Financial data from January to May 2025:
National general public budget revenue was 9.7 trillion yuan (-0.3% year-on-year)
National general public budget expenditure was 11.3 trillion yuan (up 4.2% year-on-year)
The current economic recovery is still uneven, the momentum of tax improvement has slowed down, and infrastructure and real estate spending are under pressure, reflecting insufficient domestic demand.
Investment Tips and Major Asset Class Strategies
1. Interest rate bond market analysis
The yield of interest-bearing bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, the funding situation tended to be stable, and the disturbance of the cross-tax period was basically digested. Overnight and 7-day interest rates fell from high levels, indicating that market liquidity improved. There are more medium- and long-term views, and the current market has a tendency to "trade in advance" the July market.
Focus: MLF continuation, government bond issuance (30Y), real estate policy changes, funding and risk asset fluctuations.
2. Credit bond market analysis
Domestic credit debt:
Yields are generally downward, market sentiment is relatively warm, medium and long-term products generally perform better than the short end, and credit spreads are generally narrowing.
The new coupon interest rates in the primary market hit a new low this year: Shandong Weifang AA platform 5-year interest rate is 2.99%, Guiyang Nantou 3-year interest rate is 3.25%
Transactions in the secondary market rebounded to a relatively active level this year, with transactions dominated by valuation discounts. Buying increased in traditional high-yield regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Shandong, with coupon strategies still dominating. Valuation hubs of related products showed a downward trend.
Chinese offshore debt:
The pace of new issuance in the primary market has eased marginally, and Henan's two new 364-target issuances have received good subscriptions. Market rumors indicate that the financing arrangement is related to the local government's decision to resolve the debts of the public involved in the financing category.
Hubei, Hunan, Shandong, and Jiangxi provinces have successively compiled statistics on the amount of corporate offshore debt and future new bond issuance demand, and regulatory policies have also shown signs of marginal relaxation. Zhejiang, which previously implemented strict regulations, has also gradually relaxed new issuance applications recently.
3. Analysis of A-share and Hong Kong stock market
A-shares:
After the adjustment, the mood has improved somewhat, but the risk-off mood still exists.
The index continues to fluctuate. The low valuation of the technology chain and the fundamental-driven structural opportunities may exist. After the adjustment of the defense and military trade sectors, attention can be paid to the performance of the interim report.
Hong Kong stocks:
The market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend.
High dividend , technology and Internet sectors are attractive for investment, and the new consumer sector has medium- and short-term investment value after a sharp correction.
4. Convertible bond market analysis
Market structure : “High prices, low valuations”
As of June 20, the median convertible bond price was 120.66 yuan, and the median YTM was -1.62%; the median pure bond premium rate was 14.11%, and the median conversion premium rate was 31.37%, which was at a relatively low level in the past four years.
Valuation distribution characteristics : The bond market is still cautious about the price game of equity asset flexibility, and the room for premium compression is relatively limited.
Liquidity :
Although the turnover on the transfer day was 55.1 billion to 69.1 billion yuan, which was lower than last week, it was still at an active level this year.
The median daily trading volume of A-shares moved downward to the range of 1.09 trillion to 1.28 trillion, reflecting a marginal weakening of risk appetite in the equity market.
5. Commodity market analysis
Macroeconomic level: Policy changes between China and the United States are limited for the time being, and overall support for commodity demand is weak.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained a neutral policy tone, while lowering its U.S. growth forecast and raising its inflation forecast.
Domestic data in May fell marginally. Against the backdrop of slowing infrastructure investment and pressure on real estate, the endogenous momentum of the economy is still insufficient and prices continue to be sluggish.
Geographical level :
The US military strike against Iran has pushed up the risk premium of crude oil and some energy and chemical products (concerns about the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz).
The volatility of precious metals has intensified, but the price of gold has not risen sharply in the short term, which may be related to the previous long squeeze and the difference in expectations for the escalation of the situation.
Overall, geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the risk premium in the commodity market, but the macroeconomic downturn and weak downstream demand still constrain commodity prices in the medium and long term. In the future, we need to focus on the path of US inflation, the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, and the pace of domestic policy responses.
The above is an analysis of the market situation last week. On June 23, Israel and Iran reached an agreement on a "complete and thorough ceasefire", and crude oil and gold "responded with a correction" .
6. Overseas market assets - US bonds and US stocks
US Tariff Expectations and Economic Forecasts :
Core PCE inflation revised down to 3.4% in December 2025
The US economic growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised up to 1.25% year-on-year
The probability of a recession in the next 12 months has dropped to 30%.
Economic momentum and labor market :
Slowing employment growth
Unemployment claims rise slightly
Unemployment rate rises
Labor force participation rate is on a downward trend
This performance is consistent with our immediate summary of recent hard economic data, which has declined significantly over the past few weeks.
Inflation transmission pathway :
Core PCE inflation in May is expected to rise moderately by 0.18%, but the risk of tariff-driven price increases has not been eliminated. The weakness mainly comes from services (rent and OER), while goods such as home appliances have shown signs of tariff transmission. The unexpected rise in import prices suggests that foreign producers have so far not absorbed the cost of tariffs significantly. We estimate that every 1 percentage point increase in tariffs will push up core PCE by approximately 0.1%. Stable long-term inflation expectations will limit the spread of secondary effects, and the impact of inflation is expected to subside in 2026-2027.
European Policy Outlook :
ECB : It is expected to cut interest rates once more in September to a final rate of 1.75% (risks on the downside), mainly due to the continued slowdown in the economy.
Bank of England: The core HICP inflation rate fell to 2.3% year-on-year in May. The unexpected rise in inflation on both sides of the English Channel made the Bank of England more cautious, but we still believe that:
The probability of a continuous rate cut in the second half of the year is >50%
The forecast final interest rate of 3% is far below market pricing
Support: Slowing labour market – Employment growth as measured by PAYE data has turned negative and job vacancies have fallen sharply. We expect regular private sector wage growth to slow sharply to 3.5% in the second half of the year, affected by recent lower wage agreements.
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