Today's news tips:
1. Next week's macro outlook: New tariff red line triggers the "final battle"
2. Caixin: Hong Kong may narrow the scope of its first batch of stablecoin licenses to three or four
3. Arkham: LuBian mining pool had over 127,000 bitcoins stolen in 2020, now worth nearly $14.5 billion
4. Binance: Hold at least 200 Binance Alpha Points to claim 24,000 MM tokens airdrop
5. The Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland, is suspected of being stolen
6. Huang Licheng closed his long position in PUMP at a loss of $7.76 million, bringing his total floating loss to $13.5 million.
7. Sharplink Gaming increased its holdings by 15,822 ETH, worth approximately $55.56 million
8. A whale bought $300 million worth of ETH in the past three days, and currently has a floating loss of approximately $26 million.
Macro/Policy
Next week's macro outlook: New tariff red line triggers the "final battle"
Market risk sentiment was positive this week, as reports of a trade breakthrough between the EU and the US triggered a sharp rally in global markets. Consequently, the US dollar saw strong support, while the euro and yen declined significantly as the US trade position improved and funds rotated into US dollar assets. The confusing non-farm payroll report, accompanied by mixed revisions, impacted various asset classes. Bonds and gold rallied on safe-haven demand. Gold surged $40 after the non-farm payroll report, erasing all previous losses and closing the week at $3,363 per ounce, up 0.79%. The following are key market observations for the new week:
Tuesday 21:45, the final value of the US July S&P Global Services PMI
At 03:10 on Thursday, Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed and a 2027 FOMC voter, delivered a speech.
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending August 2nd
At 10:00 PM on Thursday, 2027 FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat.
At 23:00 on Thursday, the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation forecast for July
At 22:20 on Friday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussallem will deliver a speech
The new tariffs will not take effect until August 7th, instead of the previous date of August 1st, giving countries another window to try to negotiate a reduction in tariffs. Furthermore, while two governors voted in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut, the overall tone of the statement and Powell's comments was very neutral, suggesting that while the Fed has left the door open for a September rate cut, it has not ruled out raising rates if higher tariffs and a tightening labor market lead to further inflation.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has issued an official security alert, warning against fraudulent stablecoin licensing schemes. The Hong Kong Stablecoin Ordinance has officially come into effect, and the regulatory regime for stablecoin issuers has also been implemented. While the regulatory regime is still in its early stages, the HKMA will adopt a "strict first, steady" approach. The HKMA specifically reminds market participants to exercise caution when communicating with the public and avoid statements that could cause misunderstanding or create unrealistic expectations. Falsely claiming to be a licensed person or applicant is illegal. Citizens holding unregulated stablecoins do so at their own risk.
Viewpoint
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), said that the cryptocurrency market should rebound, and some investors do not believe that this rebound is real, which is precisely why the crypto market may go higher because "investors have underestimated every recovery since 2020, and this time will be no exception."
Tom Lee added that the traditional financial industry, led by Wall Street, is steadily and quietly increasing its investment in cryptocurrencies. ETH is benefiting from Wall Street's promotion of tokenization. Ethereum has never experienced a downtime, which is crucial for banks. Based on fundamental estimates, ETH should be $15,000 (current price is $3,700). He believes that the real problem is that institutional investors' acceptance of ETH is underestimated, and Ethereum is currently only in the mid-stage of its development.
Caixin: Hong Kong may narrow the scope of its first batch of stablecoin licenses to three or four
According to Caixin, Hong Kong may narrow the scope of its initial stablecoin licenses to three or four companies. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has recognized, during discussions with the People's Bank of China (PBOC), that under the framework of a regulatory memorandum, primary supervisory responsibility and risk resides with the HKMA. Several branches of Chinese banks and securities firms in Hong Kong are eager to participate in compliant stablecoin operations in Hong Kong, including Bank of China (Hong Kong), Bank of Communications (Hong Kong), China Construction Bank (Asia), CNCBI International, and Guotai Junan International. These efforts involve stablecoin issuance and custody services.
Furthermore, one insider, in an interview about stablecoins, stated that my country currently lacks a globally influential public blockchain. Another insider suggested that the construction of national-level backbone public blockchains should be led by central state-owned enterprises, while the construction of industry-level public blockchains could be open to market competition.
Project News
Binance Alpha Lists OLAXBT (AIO)
According to the official page, Binance Alpha has listed OLAXBT (AIO).
Binance: Hold at least 200 Binance Alpha Points to claim 24,000 MM tokens airdrop
According to Binance's official announcement, trading of MOMOFUN (MM) Alpha will begin at 4:00 PM (UTC+8) on August 3rd. After trading begins, users holding at least 200 Binance Alpha Points will be eligible to claim an airdrop of 24,000 MM tokens. This airdrop is available on a first-come, first-served basis. The minimum score will automatically decrease by 15 points every hour until the event ends. Claiming the airdrop will cost 15 Binance Alpha Points. Users must confirm their claim within 24 hours on the Alpha event page; otherwise, they will forfeit the airdrop.
Arkham: LuBian mining pool had over 127,000 bitcoins stolen in 2020, now worth nearly $14.5 billion
Blockchain intelligence platform Arkham Intelligence revealed that 127,426 Bitcoins (now worth nearly $14.5 billion) were stolen from the LuBian mining pool in December 2020. The theft appears to have been the largest cryptocurrency heist at the time, with the stolen Bitcoins valued at $3.5 billion.
The LuBian mining pool suddenly appeared on the mining market in late April 2020 and quickly grew, becoming the sixth largest mining pool on the Bitcoin network. Subsequently, the LuBian mining pool suddenly disappeared in February 2021, and cryptocurrency investors speculated that the pool might have been shut down by the government or had transformed into a private mining pool. However, according to Arkham, the LuBian mining pool closed after a large-scale hacker attack resulted in the theft of most of its reserves. "They appear to have been hacked for the first time on December 28, 2020, losing over 90% of their BTC." "Subsequently, on December 29, approximately $6 million in BTC and USDT were stolen from active Lubian addresses on the Bitcoin Omni layer."
Arkham speculates that a flaw in LuBian's private key generation algorithm may have been the root cause of the attack. LuBian secured 11,886 BTC, currently valued at $1.35 billion, and still holds them to this day.
Bitcoin re-staking platform SatLayer has opened airdrop registration
Bitcoin re-staking platform SatLayer tweeted that airdrop registration SlayDrop is now open and the deadline is 9 pm on August 9 (UTC+8).
Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland suspected of being stolen
According to BitcoinNews, the Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland, is suspected of being stolen. The statue was unveiled on October 25, 2024, at an event jointly organized by Tether and the City of Lugano. It was designed by Italian artist Valentina Picozzi and took 18 months of research and 3 months to build.
Satoshi Gallery, the project behind the Satoshi Nakamoto statue, announced on Twitter that its statue in Lugano, Switzerland, has been stolen and is offering a 0.1 Bitcoin reward for anyone who helps recover it. The team stated, "You can steal our symbol, but you can never steal our soul." Satoshi Gallery pledged to continue working on the installation of Satoshi Nakamoto statues in 21 cities around the world.
Important data
According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ember, [The whale with a 75% win rate in four ETH battles] increased his short position by another 10,000 ETH 3 hours ago. He now holds a short position of 50,000 ETH (US$170 million) with a floating profit of US$12.25 million.
This whale initiated a short position of 20,000 ETH at $3,843 on July 28th. After successfully betting on the right direction and generating a profit, they began rolling their position: adding another 20,000 ETH to their short position yesterday morning and another 10,000 ETH this morning. Their current position is 15x short of 50,000 ETH, valued at $170 million, with an opening price of $3,634 and a liquidation price of $3,634.
According to Onchain Lens, Huang Licheng completely closed his long position in PUMP (5x), losing $7.76 million, and sold all of his PUMP on the spot market, losing $2.18 million. He still holds long positions in ETH (25x) and HYPE (5x), with a floating loss of $13.5 million. His total profit has dropped from $26 million to $3.8 million.
According to Arkham monitoring, the whale with the address starting with 0xdf has purchased a total of $300 million worth of ETH from Galaxy Digital's over-the-counter transactions in the past three days. Its current value is $274 million, with a floating loss of $26 million, a drop of about 8.7%.
Institutional holdings
Sharplink Gaming increased its holdings by 15,822 ETH, worth approximately $55.56 million
According to on-chain analyst Ember, Sharplink Gaming received another 15,822 ETH ($55.56 million) from Galaxy Digital five hours ago. This means that the 108 million USDC it transferred to Galaxy Digital early yesterday morning has been repurchased into 30,755 ETH at an average price of approximately $3,530.
Since SharpLink Gaming began accumulating ETH using a micro-strategy model in early June, it has accumulated 480,000 ETH, currently valued at $1.63 billion. The average purchase price was approximately $3,045, resulting in a current profit of $173 million.
