HashKey Trading Time: BTC may still be affected by geopolitics in the short term. After ETH fell, a whale bought $127 million. The market is paying attention to the support level of $2,320.

1. Market observation

Keywords: Iran, Israel, ETH, BTC

Risk events have occurred frequently in the global financial market recently, and the geopolitical situation remains tense. Israel launched air strikes on multiple nuclear facilities and military targets in Iran this morning, and named the operation "Lion's Power", which led to a sharp rise in international risk aversion, and gold and crude oil prices soared instantly. At the same time, yesterday, an Indian Airlines Boeing 787 passenger plane suffered its first air crash on its way to the UK, killing more than 240 people, and Boeing's stock price fell by more than 6%. The domestic situation in the United States is also turbulent. Riots continue in Los Angeles, 378 people have been arrested, and some areas have been forced to implement curfews. Protests against the search for illegal immigrants have begun to spread to other areas. In terms of monetary policy, although Trump has repeatedly called for a 200 basis point interest rate cut and expressed support for Tesla, the Federal Reserve has maintained a high interest rate stance since December 2024, and Chairman Powell remains firm. According to the latest CPI data and the US core PPI data in May, the market expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates in September this year, and there may be two opportunities for interest rate cuts throughout the year.

In this complex macro environment, Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst of HashKey Group, pointed out that in the first half of 2025, the global crypto asset market will usher in a key transition from retail-driven to institutional-led. Bitcoin hit a high of $110,000 in May, and the continuous influx of institutional funds has driven crypto assets from speculative products to asset allocation tools. Against this background, crypto concept stocks have performed strongly, and US stocks such as Coinbase and Circle, as well as many Hong Kong stocks and A-share related targets have recorded significant gains. Among them, Circle soared 167% on its first day of listing on June 5, becoming the focus of the market. He believes that the resonance logic of crypto assets and concept stocks is mainly driven by three major driving forces: first, major economies around the world are accelerating the improvement of regulatory frameworks, and compliance has improved market transparency and the stability of capital inflows; second, the continuous influx of institutional funds has reshaped the market pricing mechanism, and giants such as BlackRock have driven long-term asset allocation through tools such as Bitcoin ETFs; third, technological innovation has optimized infrastructure and promoted the market valuation logic to leap to technological attributes. In addition, the compliance process of stablecoins has accelerated, and the implementation of the US "GENIUS Act" and the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" has further reshaped the financial infrastructure. He emphasized that the core of future investment will revolve around compliance barriers, technical depth and scenario implementation capabilities, and discover "crypto value creators" with long-term value.

However, affected by the situation in the Middle East, the Bitcoin market suffered a significant correction this morning, falling below the $103,000 mark. Caroline Moren, co-founder of Orbit Markets, analyzed that cryptocurrencies are consistent with the trend of major risk assets, and Bitcoin is expected to gain technical support around $101,000, but the short-term price trend will be mainly affected by the geopolitical situation. As for Ethereum, although the price fell below $2,500 and fell 9.2% in 24 hours, institutional investors are still actively deploying. It is worth noting that the address suspected to be associated with ConsenSys purchased 2,825 ETH again OTC this morning. In the past two weeks, the address has accumulated 160,736 ETH (worth $421 million). Another institutional investor who had made a profit of $30.45 million through two ETH band transactions used 127 million USDC to buy 48,800 ETH within 6 hours after the market fell today. According to the B2BINPAY analysis team report, if the ETH price falls below $2,320, it may test the $2,000 to $1,800 range, but it is more likely to continue to rise in the short term. If ETH breaks through $2,793, it may trigger a new round of increases, with the target price possibly reaching $4,000. Even if there is a short-term correction, it is expected to break through $3,000 in July or August, with the year-end target remaining at $4,000.

In terms of market dynamics, the AI project $IRIS launched by Nethermind and Virtuals opened with a market value of nearly $100 million and has now adjusted back to $53 million. Meme coin AURA also experienced an adjustment from a new high of $200 million to $133 million. It is worth noting that after the HyperLiquid token $HYPE hit a new high, Canadian listed company Tony G Co-Investment Holdings increased its holdings by 10,387 HYPE at an average price of $42.24. On the other hand, Nasdaq-listed SharpLink Gaming's stock price plummeted 70% after the market closed on June 13 due to the filing of an S-3ASR registration statement allowing shareholders related to PIPE financing to resell nearly 58.7 million shares. Although the company's chairman of the board, Joseph Lubin, clarified that this was just a standard procedure after the PIPE transaction and not an actual sell-off, the market reaction was still violent.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 13)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

Bitcoin: $104,417 (+11.54% YTD), daily spot volume $47.667 billion
Ethereum: $2,511.08 (-24.64% YTD), with a daily spot volume of $38.332 billion
Fear of corruption index: 54 (neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 3.52 sat/vB ETH: 3.28 Gwei
Market share: BTC 63.9%, ETH 9.3%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, BTC, XRP, NXPC, RVN
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.9019
Sector gains and losses: Crypto markets suffered a heavy blow, AI fell 11.6%; Meme fell 11.9%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 246,510 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$1.14 billion, including BTC liquidation of US$444 million, ETH liquidation of US$290 million, and SOL liquidation of US$51.9423 million
BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($107,518.76), lower channel line ($105,389.68)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($2644.31), lower line ($2591.95)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 12)

Bitcoin ETF: +86.3114 million US dollars (net inflow for 4 consecutive days)
Ethereum ETF: +112 million (19 consecutive days of net inflow)

4. Today’s Outlook

Binance Wallet 23rd TGE will list SGC
Coinbase to List FARTCOIN, SQD and CAKE
Coinbase Institutional will enable 24/7 trading of XRP and SOL futures for US traders starting June 13
Solsniper will close its NFT trading market before 3:00 on June 14
Immutable (IMX) will unlock approximately 24.52 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 13, accounting for 1.33% of the current circulation and worth approximately $12.8 million.
Cookie DAO (COOKIE) will unlock approximately 13.88 million tokens at 8:00 am on June 13, accounting for 2.54% of the current circulation and worth approximately $2.9 million.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock approximately 127 million tokens at 8 am on June 15, accounting for 3.79% of the current circulation and worth approximately $16.6 million.
Onyxcoin (XCN) will unlock approximately 296 million tokens at 8 am on June 15, accounting for 0.88% of the current circulation and worth approximately $4.3 million.

The stocks with the biggest gains in the top 500 by market value today: Venom (VENOM) rose 28.04%, NEXPACE (NXPC) rose 15.89%, Orbs (ORBS) rose 13.00%, Aerodrome Finance (AERO) rose 12.80%, and WhiteRock (WHITE) rose 11.57%.

5. Hot News

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.