Today's top news highlights:

1. US and Iran are expected to hold talks this week; Iran is formulating conditions for ending the war.

2. Morgan Stanley's proposed spot Bitcoin ETF has a fee rate as low as 0.14%, which, if approved, would be the lowest in the market.

3. The Lido proposal suggests using up to 10,000 stETH to buy LDO.

4. Trader Eugene: All positions have been closed at stop-loss levels; trading frequency needs to be reduced this year.

5. Intercontinental Exchange invests an additional $600 million in Polymarket.

6. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $225 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest net outflow at $202 million.

Regulation & Macro

U.S. stocks closed lower across the board, with Coinbase falling more than 7%.

U.S. stocks closed lower across the board. The Nasdaq fell 2.15%, bringing its weekly decline to 3.23%; the S&P 500 fell 1.67%, marking its fifth consecutive week of losses, the longest losing streak since 2022, with a 2.12% drop this week; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.72%, bringing its weekly decline to 0.9%. Blockchain-related stocks generally declined, with COIN (Coinbase) falling 7.06%; MSTR (Strategy) falling 5.19%; and CRCL (Circle) falling 4.69%.

The US and Iran are expected to hold talks this week, with Iran formulating conditions for ending the war.

U.S. Presidential Envoy Witkov stated that talks with Iranian officials are expected this week. Witkov also indicated that a response from Iran regarding the proposed 15-point ceasefire is expected soon.

A spokesperson for the Iranian Armed Forces stated that Iran is formulating conditions for ending the war. The spokesperson warned the United States and Israel that Iran possesses overwhelming strength and a decisive advantage on the battlefield, enabling it to determine the final outcome of the war, and that the US and Israel will be "forced" to accept this reality. The spokesperson pointed out that the US and Israel have fully recognized the strength of the Iranian armed forces and the Iranian people in actual combat, and advised them to face the facts and return to reason in a timely manner.

California bans officials from profiting from non-public information on prediction market platforms.

According to The Block, California's governor issued an executive order on Friday prohibiting state officials from profiting from prediction market platforms using "non-public information." The order, effective immediately, prohibits "officials appointed by the governor from using confidential information obtained in their official capacity to gamble or assist others (including family members or business partners) in profiting from prediction market activities."

Project Updates

Leaked documents from Anthropic show they are testing a new generation AI model, Claude Mythos.

According to Fortune, Anthropic has acknowledged testing a new model, Claude Mythos, which represents a "leapfrog improvement" over its existing products and has already been made available to a small group of early adopters. Leaked internal drafts reveal that the model, codenamed "Capybara," outperforms the previous top-performing Claude Opus 4.6 across the board, showing significant improvements in software programming, academic reasoning, and cybersecurity tests. Anthropic has left nearly 3,000 unreleased assets in its unpublished data cache, including draft blog posts introducing Claude Mythos/Capybara and materials from a closed-door, invitation-only summit with European CEOs. The company claims the model "far surpasses other AIs" in cybersecurity attack and defense capabilities and plans to initially deploy it to cybersecurity defenders, with limited public availability due to its high operating costs and risks.

Coinbase will launch Katana (KAT) perpetual contracts.

According to Coinbase Markets, trading in Katana token KAT perpetual contracts will launch on March 27. The official statement indicates that the KAT-PERP market will open for trading in regions where liquidity conditions are met and local regulations are supportive.

Lido's proposal suggests using up to 10,000 stETH to buy LDO.

According to the Lido Governance Forum, the ecosystem operations team has proposed authorizing the Growth Committee to use up to 10,000 stETH from the DAO treasury to purchase LDO in batches under current market conditions. The proposal states that the LDO/ETH exchange rate is approximately 0.00016, representing a discount of about 63% compared to the two-year median of 0.00043, indicating a disconnect from the protocol's fundamentals. The transactions will be executed in batches via Easy Track, with a maximum of 1,000 stETH per batch, slippage controlled to within 3%, and the purchased LDO will be returned to the treasury. An execution report will be published after each batch is completed.

Morgan Stanley's proposed spot Bitcoin ETF will have a fee rate as low as 0.14%, which, if approved, would be the lowest in the market.

Morgan Stanley plans to price its proposed spot Bitcoin ETF. According to a revised filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the ETF will have an expense ratio of 0.14% (14 basis points). If approved, this would be the lowest-priced fund on the market. Current market fees typically range from 15 to 25 basis points, with the lowest being the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF at 0.15%. Larger funds, including BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), have expense ratios of 25 basis points.

The P2P.me team apologized for the prediction market betting incident and promised to inject profits into MetaDAO and develop new trading policies.

The P2P.me team publicly acknowledged that the Polymarket betting account "P2P Team" discovered on the blockchain was indeed their team, and apologized for the betting incident.

P2P.me stated that 10 days before the fundraising launch, they used foundation funds to bet that they could raise over $6 million. At that time, there was only a verbal commitment from Multicoin ($3 million), without any signed term sheet or guaranteed allocation. Subsequently, they actually raised $5.2 million, all from independent external investors.

P2P.me acknowledges that using outcomes it could control for transactions would damage trust. However, P2P.me claims that deliberately naming the account "P2P Team" was intended to convey its presence to the community and demonstrate its intention to be transparent. But intention does not equate to action. It admits that failing to disclose information at the time was a mistake, and also acknowledges that criticism regarding the ban was justified.

P2P.me stated that profits from prediction market positions will be reinvested in the project's MetaDAO treasury, all positions will be liquidated in the coming hours, and a formal company policy regarding future prediction market trading is being developed.

Binance Alpha will list R2 Protocol (R2) on March 30th.

According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will list R2 Protocol (R2) on March 30th. Eligible users can claim the airdrop using Binance Alpha Points on the Alpha event page after trading opens on Alpha. Further details will be announced separately.

Polymarket launches its first live prediction market platform

According to Businesswire, Polymarket announced a partnership with Parti to launch the first live prediction market platform. Matthew Modabber, Chief Marketing Officer of Polymarket, stated that Polymarket is committed to building a global information layer for real-time events, and live streaming is a natural extension of this mission. Content creators can search all prediction markets offered by Polymarket's infrastructure, allowing fans to instantly participate in events directly related to the topics discussed in the live stream. Content creators will reportedly receive a share of the prediction market transaction fees.

Investment and financing news

Intercontinental Exchange invests an additional $600 million in Polymarket.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced the completion of a new $600 million direct cash investment in prediction market platform Polymarket, as part of its equity financing round. Additionally, ICE expects to purchase up to $40 million more in Polymarket securities from existing shareholders. ICE had previously made an initial direct investment of $1 billion in Polymarket in October 2025; this transaction fulfills all of ICE's investment obligations in Polymarket. ICE stated that this investment is not expected to have a material impact on its financial performance or capital return plans, and specific valuation and other terms will be disclosed after the completion of this financing round.

Opinions & Analysis

Trump: Bitcoin is very powerful and the US must stay ahead.

Speaking at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) summit in Miami, Florida, US President Donald Trump said that Bitcoin is very powerful and that the US must stay ahead of this trend. Trump pointed out that many people now want to use virtual assets, especially Bitcoin, for payments, and the US must be at the forefront of this trend.

Curve founder: The memecoin craze has exacerbated the public's misconception of associating cryptocurrency with scams and scandals.

In discussions with DeFi researchers Deebs DeFi and Ignas, Curve founder Michael Egorov stated that memecoin "indoctrinates ordinary people into believing that memecoin is cryptocurrency and can lead to quick wealth," resulting in a large number of retail investors being exploited. Genuine crypto projects focused on decentralization, permissionlessness, and censorship resistance have not benefited; instead, they have borne negative trust consequences in the public eye, being labeled "scams" and "crimes." He believes the memecoin craze has exacerbated the public's cognitive bias of associating cryptocurrency with fraud and scandal.

Eleanor Terrett: The draft of the Clarity Act is expected to be released next week.

Former Fox News reporter Eleanor Terrett said an aide to U.S. Senator Thom Tillis revealed that the draft Clarity Act is expected to be released next week, including stablecoin yield/reward terms, while negotiations with stakeholders are still ongoing.

By the end of 2026, AI may account for 70% of the revenue of Bitcoin mining companies.

According to CoinDesk, publicly traded Bitcoin miners are losing approximately $19,000 for every Bitcoin they mine, and are therefore rapidly shifting towards AI and high-performance computing infrastructure. A CoinShares report shows that the public mining sector has announced over $70 billion in AI and high-performance computing contracts. CoreWeave's expanded partnership with Core Scientific alone is worth $10.2 billion over 12 years. TeraWulf's high-performance computing contract revenue reached $12.8 billion. Hut 8 signed a $7 billion, 15-year AI infrastructure lease agreement for its River Bend campus. Cipher Digital reached a multi-billion dollar deal with Google-backed Fluidstack.

By the end of 2026, AI may account for as much as 70% of the revenue of listed mining companies, compared to approximately 30% currently. Core Scientific's AI hosting revenue already accounts for 39% of its total revenue. TeraWulf's figure is 27%, and IREN's is 9%.

Trader Eugene: All positions have been closed at stop-loss levels; trading frequency needs to be reduced this year.

Trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio stated on his personal channel, "All positions have been stopped out. Tried once, but no profit. 2026 will be more difficult than 2025, which means I need to reduce my trading frequency. It seems I need more patience."

Important data

Ark Invest significantly reduced its exposure to technology and Bitcoin.

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest significantly reduced its holdings of US tech stocks and Bitcoin-related assets on Thursday, selling approximately $41 million worth of Meta shares and over $26 million worth of Nvidia shares, as well as approximately $7.5 million worth of Alphabet and approximately $25 million worth of AMD shares. Simultaneously, Ark also sold approximately $11 million worth of its own Bitcoin spot ETF (ARKB), approximately $6.5 million worth of shares in the crypto trading platform Bullish, and nearly $5 million worth of shares in Jack Dorsey's Block. Reports indicate that this round of operations occurred against the backdrop of escalating uncertainty surrounding the Iranian situation and a continued correction in tech stocks and crypto assets. Ark currently holds only approximately $100 million in ARKB, making it the 35th largest holding among its actively managed ETFs.

Circle mints an additional 500 million USDC on Solana.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, Circle minted an additional 500 million USDC on Solana; the cumulative issuance over the past 30 days reached $24.4 billion.

F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun withdrew 9,000 ETH from Binance and deposited them into Aave.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, a wallet associated with Wang Chun, co-founder of F2Pool, withdrew 9,000 ETH (worth $17.86 million) from Binance 8 hours ago and deposited it into the Aave platform. The wallet currently holds 79,818 ETH (worth $158.72 million).

NYDIG transferred 4,500 BTC to multiple market makers, suspected of being used for sale.

According to Lookonchain, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG) transferred 4,500 bitcoins (worth $295.5 million) to Wintertermute, Cumberland, FalconX, B2C2 Group, and Galaxy Digital eight hours ago, most likely for sale.

Data shows that "insider traders" on Polymarket have profited approximately $143 million since 2024.

According to Business Insider, researchers have discovered that "insider traders" on the prediction market platform Polymarket have accumulated approximately $143 million in profits since 2024. The study, published by scholars from Columbia Law School and the University of Haifa, analyzed over 210,000 suspicious transactions between 2024 and 2026. It cited the account "ricosuave666" as an example, noting that it profited approximately $155,000 by betting on events related to Israel's military action against Iran. The study states that the characteristics of such transactions are similar to some cases involving suspected profiteering from sensitive information. As this phenomenon draws attention, researchers anticipate that regulators will strengthen their scrutiny of prediction markets. Polymarket has already implemented a new policy prohibiting entities from participating in trading using confidential information or manipulated outcomes, but the effectiveness of its implementation remains to be seen.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $225 million yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT experiencing the largest net outflow at $202 million.

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $225 million yesterday (March 27, Eastern Time).

The Bitcoin spot ETF with the largest single-day net outflow yesterday was BlackRock ETF IBIT, with a net outflow of $202 million. IBIT's total historical net inflow has reached $63.098 billion.

The second largest outflow was from the Bitwise ETF (BITB), which saw a net outflow of $18.5951 million in a single day. BITB's total historical net inflow has reached $2.069 billion.

As of press time, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $84.772 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market capitalization as a percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalization) of 6.42%, and a cumulative net inflow of $55.935 billion.

One transaction to Kraken paid over $105,000 in fees.

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