Today's top news highlights:
1. Turkmenistan's cryptocurrency regulatory law takes effect, legalizing mining and trading.
2. Iran accepts cryptocurrency payments for arms sales.
3. US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025.
4. South Korean exchange Bithumb disclosed that over $200 million in assets were dormant in approximately 2.6 million accounts.
5. Forbes: Bitcoin price forecast for 2026 focuses on $120,000-$170,000, with institutional capital deployment becoming a key variable.
6. More than 60 wrench attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders are expected in 2025.
Macro
Iran accepts payment for arms sales using cryptocurrency
According to the Financial Times, Mindex, the export agency under Iran's Ministry of Defense (responsible for overseas arms sales), has explicitly stated in its official documents and payment terms that it is willing to negotiate arms sales contracts with foreign governments and accept cryptocurrency, barter trade, or Iranian rials as payment methods. The weapons involved include advanced equipment such as Emad ballistic missiles, Shahed drones, Soleimani-class warships, and short-range air defense systems. This move aims to circumvent Western financial sanctions.
Turkmenistan's cryptocurrency regulation law takes effect, legalizing mining and trading.
The cryptocurrency regulatory law signed by the President of Turkmenistan at the end of November has come into effect, officially legalizing cryptocurrency mining and trading in Turkmenistan. According to the law, non-Turkmen residents can also mine cryptocurrencies in the country after registration. Cryptocurrency mining pools are also permitted to be established. The law stipulates that cryptocurrency exchanges established in Turkmenistan must obtain a license, establish KYC and anti-money laundering (AML) mechanisms, and meet certain cold storage requirements.
According to previous reports , Turkmenistan has passed a cryptocurrency regulatory law, which will take effect in 2026.
Bulgaria, which once "sold out" 213,500 bitcoins, has officially joined the Eurozone.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announced that Bulgaria has officially joined the Eurozone as its 21st member state, bringing the total number of policymakers on the ECB Governing Council to 27. Bulgarian Central Bank Governor Radev stated that joining the Eurozone was not merely an economic decision or a choice of currency. In 2018, Bulgaria disposed of approximately 213,500 seized Bitcoins for a mere $3.5 billion; the market value of those Bitcoins now exceeds the country's total public debt.
Grayscale Investments has filed a preliminary registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch an exchange-traded product (ETF) focused on Bittensor. The trust, codenamed GTAO, aims to provide investors with the opportunity to directly invest in Bittensor's native token, TAO, through a regulated channel.
The S-1 filing, submitted on December 30, 2025, marks the initial phase of converting the existing Grayscale Bittensor Trust into a spot ETF. If approved, GTAO will become the first TAO-focused ETP listed in the US, allowing retail and institutional investors to access investment opportunities without directly holding the underlying crypto tokens.
Opinion
Crypto analyst Ai (@alicharts) posted on the X platform that Bitcoin's 10-week and 50-week moving averages have crossed. Historical experience shows that this phenomenon is followed by significant pullbacks, including: a 67% drop in September 2014, a 54% drop in June 2018, a 53% drop in March 2020, and a 64% drop in January 2022. If history repeats itself, a similar 50%–60% pullback would send Bitcoin's price down to between $38,000 and $50,000.
According to an article published on the X platform by digital asset market research firm Delphi Digital, gold prices have risen by 120% since the beginning of 2024, marking one of the strongest gains in history. This surge was achieved without an economic recession, quantitative easing, or financial crisis. Central banks around the world purchased more than 600 tons of gold in 2025, and the purchase volume is expected to reach 840 tons in 2026.
Historically, gold has led Bitcoin by about three months at liquidity inflection points, a trend that holds significance for cryptocurrencies. Gold has now completed its repricing of the easing cycle, while BTC sentiment remains influenced by previous cycle simulations and recent pullbacks. The performance of metal assets is signaling policy easing and fiscal dominance; when metals outperform stocks, the market is pricing in currency devaluation rather than a growth collapse. Volatility in the precious metals market may signal the subsequent movements of other risk assets.
Vitalik Buterin stated in an article on the X platform that Ethereum made several advancements in 2025, including increasing the gas cap, increasing the number of blobs, optimizing node software quality, and zkEVM achieving a performance milestone. Through zkEVM and PeerDAS, Ethereum has taken a significant step towards becoming a new and more powerful blockchain.
Vitalik Buterin pointed out that Ethereum still faces challenges and needs to take more action to achieve its established goal of building a world computer as the core infrastructure of a free and open internet. This vision aims to develop decentralized applications that operate without fraud, censorship, or third-party interference, and possess the property of continuing to function even if the original developers disappear or centralized service providers (such as Cloudflare) fail. To achieve this goal, Ethereum needs to improve usability, scalability, and decentralization simultaneously at both the blockchain layer (including runtime and communication software) and the application layer.
In an interview, Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster stated that the company is optimistic about Bitcoin's performance in 2026. Despite the recent market downturn, the macroeconomic environment will become increasingly favorable for Bitcoin due to factors such as quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, and weak demand for US government bonds. It is understood that Charles Schwab currently supports the purchase of Solana and Micro Solana futures products and plans to launch spot cryptocurrency trading services in the first half of 2026.
Forbes published an article titled "What Is Bitcoin's Price Prediction For 2026," which points out that publicly available Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 are wide-ranging. Analysts from Tom Lee, Standard Chartered Bank, and Bernstein are all bullish, while some institutions are bearish. Although there is no single target price for Bitcoin yet, predictions are concentrated in the $120,000 to $170,000 range, indicating that Bitcoin's price discovery is increasingly influenced by structural factors such as ETF fund flows and corporate treasury assets. If macroeconomic positive factors strengthen and institutional participation accelerates, the potential upside could reach $250,000 or higher. How institutions choose to deploy capital will be a key factor in Bitcoin's price increase.
According to ZachXBT monitoring, hundreds of wallets have been the victim of small-scale fraud across multiple EVM chains (each victim losing less than $2,000), but the root cause remains unknown. To date, these wallets have been defrauded of approximately $107,000, and the total losses are still increasing.
CryptoQuant Research Director: Bitcoin May Have Entered a Bear Market Two Months Ago
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated on the Milk Road program that, based on indicators such as the one-year moving average, Bitcoin may have already entered a bear market two months ago. Moreno predicts that, based on Bitcoin's actual price and historical performance, the bottom of this bear market over the next year could be between $56,000 and $60,000.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated on the X platform that both silver and Bitcoin will face declines in 2026 if the 50-week moving average is used as a reference, but for different reasons. On December 31st, silver was priced at approximately $72 per ounce, a 73% premium to its 50-week moving average—a year-end price only seen once before, in 1979. Silver prices peaked near $50 in 1980 before falling 52% to $15.50. It wasn't until 2025 that silver prices closed higher than the 1979 level of $32.20. In stark contrast to the high price of silver is Bitcoin's bear market. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $87,000, a 13% discount to its 50-week moving average, which typically indicates a bottoming out and a potential drop of nearly 55%.
Project Updates
Binance will remove the BTC/RON spot trading pair.
According to an official announcement, Binance conducts regular reviews of all listed spot trading pairs and may delist some pairs due to factors such as poor liquidity and trading volume. Based on recent review results, Binance will remove the following spot trading pair and cease trading: January 2, 2026, 11:00 AM (UTC+8): BTC/RON. RON is a fiat currency code, not a cryptocurrency code.
Binance Alpha will launch AI Avatar (AIAV) on January 2nd.
According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will launch AI Avatar (AIAV) on January 2nd . Eligible users can go to the Alpha Events page after trading opens to claim the airdrop using Binance Alpha points. More details will be announced soon.
Binance updates funding rates, settlement frequency, and PA for USDT-based perpetual contracts.
According to Binance's official announcement, starting from 20:00 on January 2, 2026 (UTC+8) , if the funding rate of the USDT-based perpetual contract, which is settled every hour, is less than or equal to the absolute value of 0.025% for 16 consecutive periods , Binance Contracts will restore the funding rate settlement frequency from every hour to every four hours in the 17th period.
For example, if the funding rate of the ZKPUSDT USDⓈ-M perpetual contract remains less than or equal to 0.025% for every consecutive hour between 05:00 (UTC+8) and 20:00 (UTC+8) on January 2, 2026, the settlement frequency of the funding rate for this contract will revert to every four hours no later than 20:15 (UTC+8) on January 2, 2026. Therefore, the latest funding rate payment time after the adjustment to settle every four hours will be 00:00 (UTC+8) on January 3, 2026.
Important data
Franklin Templeton has officially updated its XRP ETF holdings data. As of December 31, 2025, its XRP holdings reached 118,387,154.16 units, with a market value of $215,197,065.61 and a current outstanding share count of 10,700,000 units. Historical data shows that the Franklin XRP ETF's market value surpassed $100 million on December 1st, meaning this indicator represents a monthly growth of approximately 100.9%.
The US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their worst outflow period ever in November and December 2025, with a total net outflow of $4.57 billion. Eleven spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $3.48 billion in November and $1.09 billion in December, totaling $4.57 billion. This surpasses the previous record ($4.32 billion in outflows in February and March) and represents the worst two-month performance since the ETFs launched in January 2024. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows exceeding $2 billion during the same period. In contrast, XRP ETFs attracted over $1 billion in inflows, and SOL ETFs saw inflows exceeding $500 million.
According to MLM monitoring, Justin Sun previously deposited approximately $200 million into Lighter LLP and then withdrew approximately $4.65 million to purchase approximately 1.66 million LIT tokens. He subsequently continued to increase his holdings, and to date, he has withdrawn approximately $38 million from the $200 million and used approximately $33 million to purchase approximately 13.25 million LIT tokens. These tokens represent approximately 1.33% of the total LIT token supply and approximately 5.32% of the circulating token supply.
More than 60 wrench attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders are expected in 2025.
Ari Redbord, Global Head of Policy and Government Affairs at crypto analytics firm TRM Labs, stated that 2025 was a record year for "wrench" attacks, with approximately 60 physical attacks targeting cryptocurrency holders. Redbord added, "The actual number is likely much higher. Many cases are simply recorded as robbery or burglary, ignoring the cryptocurrency factor; others go unreported due to victims' hesitation or uncertainty about how law enforcement will handle cryptocurrency-related crimes. In comparison, approximately 41 wrench attacks were recorded in 2024, and approximately 36 in 2021."
South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Bithumb disclosed that approximately 2.6 million accounts hold dormant customer assets worth about 291.6 billion won (about US$201.8 million). This disclosure stems from Bithumb's dormant asset retrieval campaign targeting users who have not logged in or traded for more than a year. Some of the flagged accounts have even been inactive for over a decade.
Bithumb states that the largest single dormant account was worth approximately $2.84 million, while the longest dormant period lasted 4,380 days, nearly 12 years. These figures indicate that some early participants who entered the cryptocurrency market during its initial surge never returned. Bithumb plans to directly notify eligible customers and assist them in recovering their accounts.
