1. Regulatory dividends: global policy shift and geopolitical games
1. The rise of the American “crypto-utopia”
- Policy relaxation: The Trump administration promotes the Bitcoin strategic reserve plan and abolishes the SAB 121 clause that restricts banks from custodying crypto assets. The new SEC chairman Paul Atkins proposes "guided regulation" to clarify the securities attributes of tokens and explore compliance paths.
- Institutional entry: Bitcoin ETF managed assets exceeded 1.1 million BTC (BlackRock IBIT accounts for 45%), traditional financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase accelerated their layout, and CME launched Solana futures contracts to consolidate pricing power.
- Risks are surging: The U.S. national debt has exceeded 36 trillion U.S. dollars, and the debt rating faces the risk of downgrade. If the U.S. debt crisis triggers a liquidity crunch, the crypto market may collapse simultaneously.
2. Defensive strategies for China and emerging markets
- Financial security threats: Chen Yulu, former deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that the global expansion of US dollar stablecoins and Bitcoin has squeezed the internationalization space of the RMB, and DeFi regulatory arbitrage has weakened domestic technological competitiveness.
- Competition for technical standards: The United States dominates in areas such as ZKP and Layer2. The EU integrates supervision through the MiCA framework. China faces pressure from blockchain companies to relocate abroad and needs to be wary of losing the right to set standards.
3. Regulatory arbitrage and global coordination
- Game under the G20 framework: Countries are accelerating the formulation of digital asset rules, the United States is trying to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the financial hegemony system, and China is fighting the dominance of the US dollar through the digital RMB.
2. Technological Revolution: Layer Wars, AI Integration, and the Rise of DePIN
1. Ethereum revival and Layer2 competition
- Pectra upgrade: Ethereum optimizes account abstraction, L2 compatibility and staking mechanism, aiming to reduce gas fees and improve security. The staking rate is expected to exceed 50%, and the TVL may reach 300 billion US dollars.
- Differentiation of the public chain landscape: Base chain (Coinback ecosystem) TVL exceeded 40 billion US dollars, Solana achieved 100,000 TPS through the Firedancer client, and Sui and HyperLiquid seized the market segment with modular architecture.
2. AI+Blockchain: From Tools to Autonomous Participants
- On-chain AI Agents: NEAR co-founder predicts that by 2025, AI Agents will manage crypto wallets, execute trading strategies, and even become KOLs on social platforms. VanEck data shows that their number will exceed 1 million.
- Technology integration bottleneck: The high cost of AI model training, algorithm transparency disputes and regulatory review may limit large-scale application.
3. DePIN: The Industrial Revolution of Decentralized Infrastructure
- Case breakthrough: Hivemapper has mapped 30% of the world's roads with 150,000 contributors, with annual revenue exceeding US$500 million; the Filecoin Foundation promotes the combination of AI and DePIN to solve the bottlenecks of data storage and computing power.
3. Trillion-dollar game: the struggle between institutions, retail investors and stablecoins
1. The trend of “de-retailization” led by institutions
- Bitcoin ETF siphon effect: BlackRock IBIT’s management scale has exceeded US$40 billion. Pension funds and sovereign wealth funds have entered the market, promoting the narrative of Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset", but 80% of the holdings are still controlled by retail investors.
- RWA tokenization explosion: Ondo Finance tokenized US debt to the extent of US$2.8 billion, with an annualized return of 4.44%; Maple Finance issued loans of US$2.46 billion, attracting Grayscale and Pantera to increase their holdings.
2. Stablecoins: a tool for payment revolution and US dollar hegemony
- Market size has jumped: the market value of stablecoins has reached 193 billion US dollars, and may exceed 3 trillion US dollars within five years. The cost of cross-border payments has been reduced by 60%, but the controversy over Tether's reserve transparency has become a potential black swan.
- Geopolitical weaponization: The United States consolidates its global reserve status through the dollar stablecoin, and the seizure of Russian crypto assets in the Russia-Ukraine conflict highlights the threat of digital financial hegemony.
- Regulatory crackdown warning: The U.S. Congress is discussing legislation to restrict “politicians issuing coins”, which, if passed, could trigger a sector avalanche.
4. Future Path: Reshaping Industry Value Between Enthusiasm and Rationality
1. Investor strategy: Balancing defense and offense
- Core configuration: Bitcoin (40%) + Ethereum (20%) + RWA leader (such as ONDO, 20%), long-term target Bitcoin $180,000, Ethereum $8,000.
- Risk hedging: keep 30% stablecoins (USDC/DAI) and buy Bitcoin put options (strike price $75,000).
2. Industry survival rules
- Get rid of policy dependence: The fulfillment rate of Trump’s promises is only 31%. It is necessary to shift from "regulatory arbitrage" to the intrinsic value of technology, such as connecting DeFi protocols to traditional financial infrastructure.
- Technological innovation is prioritized: The implementation capabilities of Ethereum Layer2, AI agent and DePIN will determine long-term competitiveness and avoid the bubble of homogeneous public chains.
3. Prediction of the global situation
- The Sino-US confrontation escalates: US crypto hegemony squeezes China's digital financial space, while China counterattacks through digital RMB and independent blockchain technology.
-Competition for technical standards: ZKP, Layer2 and other underlying technologies have become strategic high ground, and the EU MiCA framework may give rise to new barriers.
Be cautious when entering the market, investing is risky - @BCW_Daniel
