Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
Despite the Federal Reserve's decision last week to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but its hint that it might pause rate cuts in December, long-term Treasury yields rose instead of falling, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields reaching three-week highs of 4.1% and nearly 4.7%, respectively. More importantly, the Fed announced it would terminate its planned quantitative easing program, originally scheduled to run until 2026, early, effective December 1st. This move was seen by some market participants as a "hidden rate cut." Will Compernolle, macro strategist at FHN Financial, pointed out that this move will guide private capital towards riskier assets such as stocks and enhance the Treasury's ability to replenish its cash reserves. Bill Adams, chief economist at Dallas Union Bank, also believes that the end of QT will bring more liquidity to the financial markets.
However, market giants are cautious. Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has seen its cash reserves surge to a record $381.7 billion and has been a net seller of stocks for 12 consecutive quarters, reflecting that it sees far more selling opportunities than buying opportunities in the current market. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown is nearing its longest in history, with Congress scheduled a new vote on the evening of November 3rd in an attempt to break the deadlock.
The Bitcoin market has seen significant volatility recently, with analysts holding divergent opinions. Analyst Ted Pillows points out that while there is buying support on Binance and Coinbase, Bitcoin needs a strong volume breakout above $112,000 to continue its upward trend; otherwise, it may face a larger pullback. He also warns that a weekly close below $100,000 would confirm a downtrend. Analyst Rekt Capital emphasizes that recovering the 21-week EMA around $111,230 is crucial. Murphy, based on price structure analysis, believes there is substantial buying support in the $105,000 to $112,000 range and it shouldn't be considered a cycle top. However, bearish sentiment remains, with analyst BitBull observing an early whale selling $650 million worth of Bitcoin since October. CryptoQuant analyst Cas Abbe believes that historically, Bitcoin may have bottomed out at the 38.2% Fibonacci level above $100,000. Trader CrypNuevo believes the market is in a difficult consolidation phase, noting significant support around $101,000. Analyst EliZ observed that Bitcoin's structure above $107,000 remains intact, but the continuously declining OBV indicator indicates weakness. A break below $107,000 could lead to a retest of the $88,000 to $90,000 macro demand zone. He believes the price needs to break through $121,000 to initiate a bull market expansion. Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, predicts that while Bitcoin may reach $1 million within a decade, the next market correction could still see a drop of up to 70%.
The altcoin market has been active recently, with several projects experiencing significant volatility due to news-driven events. In the ZK sector, ZK tokens tripled in value after being endorsed by Vitalik Buterin, although there was a subsequent pullback, it spurred gains in other projects within the ecosystem, such as STRK, SCR, and MINA. Binance founder CZ revealed on social media that he had bought ASTER and would hold BNB long-term, directly stimulating ASTER's price increase. The privacy coin sector also remained hot, with Zcash (ZEC) reaching nearly $450 at one point, driven by KOLs like Arthur Hayes , and DASH also rising to nearly $100. In addition to celebrity influence, x402- related tokens such as PING and PAYAI also experienced a surge over the weekend, but have since retreated. Notably, the related concept coin KITE will be listed today, currently fluctuating around $0.13 in pre-market trading.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, November 3)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
Bitcoin: $107,419 (year-to-date +15.77%), daily spot trading volume $43.99 billion.
Ethereum: $3,723 (year-to-date +11.23%), daily spot trading volume $24.59 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 36 (Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.1 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.6%, ETH 12.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, VIRTUL
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.7%/52.3%
Sector Performance: L2 sector fell 9.88%, DePIN sector fell 8.78%.
24-hour liquidation data : A total of 164,763 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $409 million. This included $77.7334 million in BTC liquidations, $89.33 million in ETH liquidations, and $37.5399 million in SOL liquidations.
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower limits, it indicates a medium- to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it indicates a bottoming or topping pattern.
3. ETF Flows (as of October 31)
Bitcoin ETF: -$191.6 million
Ethereum ETF: -$98.2 million
SOL ETF: +$44.48 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Alpha will launch THORWallet (TITN) on November 3rd.
Binance Launchpool has listed Kite (KITE), and spot trading of KITE will begin on November 3rd.
Monad has launched the MON token airdrop, which ends on November 3rd.
The Alpha Arena AI trading competition, hosted by nof1.ai, will conclude on November 4th.
Binance Alpha will list Dino Tycoon (TYCOON) on November 4th.
Memecoin (MEME) will unlock approximately 3.45 billion tokens at 3:30 PM on November 3rd, representing 5.98% of the current circulating supply, with a value of approximately $5.4 million.
The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: SPX6900 down 14.9%, Virtuals Protocol down 13.9%, ASI Alliance down 13.3%, DoubleZero down 13.2%, and Pump.fun down 12.2%.
