Trading Moment: With the Fed decision imminent, the gold and silver frenzy continues, and Bitcoin surges towards $90,000.

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Against the backdrop of a complex interplay between global macroeconomics and geopolitics, markets are undergoing a profound reassessment of asset values. The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen to a four-year low, a situation Trump has expressed no concern about , even claiming he can manipulate the dollar like a "yo-yo." Geopolitically, while the US has informed Israel of its readiness to act against Iran, the two sides are currently communicating through informal channels. In this environment, gold prices have surged, with spot gold briefly breaking through $5,270 per ounce , setting a new all-time high and rising nearly 22% this month. Domestic gold jewelry prices have also surpassed 1,610 yuan per gram.

Silver has surged over 60% this month , triggering a frenzy among retail investors. The world's largest silver ETF (iShares Silver Trust) recorded record single-day inflows, forcing the CME Group to raise margin requirements for some silver futures contracts to cope with the sharp fluctuations. Institutions such as Citigroup and BMO Capital Markets have issued extremely bullish views. Citigroup predicts silver could reach $150 within the next three months, noting that gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from traditional mining costs to being determined by global wealth allocation demand and rigid supply, with a bullish scenario potentially reaching $6,000 . BMO similarly believes the changing global landscape has created a historic opportunity for precious metals, with its bullish model predicting gold could reach $8,650 by the end of 2027 .

However, not all seasoned investors are caught up in the frenzy. Commodity legend Rick Rule revealed he has sold most of his physical silver holdings , shifting profits to what he considers more leveraged silver mining stocks and gold as a store of value . Meanwhile, the Bank of Thailand intervened to counter the rising pressure on the baht from gold trading, limiting trading volume and banning short selling. Looking ahead, market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3:00 AM this Thursday. Although the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, Chairman Powell's speech will provide crucial guidance amidst political pressure and intertwined economic data. Furthermore, Google Cloud announced a price increase, and the market awaits earnings guidance from the "Seven Sisters" tech giants , with industry leaders generally focused on how inflation and geopolitical risks are reshaping the macroeconomy.

Bitcoin has been approaching $90,000 after falling to $86,000 on Sunday, currently hovering around $89,000 and facing the risk of a fourth consecutive month of declines, a rare occurrence since 2018. The main pressure on the market stems from continued outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from Windtermute and analyst Murphy both show that the sell-off in the US market is dominating market direction, and net stablecoin holdings on exchanges have turned negative, indicating weakening buying power. From a technical analysis perspective, analyst Rekt Capital points out that the 21-day and 50-day moving averages on Bitcoin's weekly chart have formed a bearish crossover, the first such crossover since the 2022 bear market. Analyst KillaXBT believes that a break below $90,000 signifies a shift in the market structure to a bearish one.

Despite a cautious market sentiment, the derivatives market and some technical indicators still reveal a glimmer of optimism. With options expiring on January 30th with a total notional value of approximately $8.5 billion, data shows traders have a strong interest in $100,000 call options; however, analysts suggest this may be more of a complex arbitrage strategy than a direct bullish bet. Glassnode analysis indicates that while demand for call options has been strong recently, it is mainly concentrated in the short term, and long-term risks have not been repriced. On the other hand, a joint study by Swissblock and analyst Willy Woo found that Bitcoin's price and the RSI indicator are forming a bullish divergence, suggesting a possible short-term rebound to $95,000. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes proposed a macro catalyst theory, arguing that the Federal Reserve's "hidden money printing" to intervene in the yen and Japanese government bond markets will ultimately inject liquidity into risk assets like Bitcoin. Overall, Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation range, with the $85,000 support level being tested, while facing resistance from ETF selling pressure and pessimistic technical patterns. The market is awaiting a decisive catalyst to break the deadlock.

Ethereum has demonstrated a degree of independent resilience, with its price rebounding above $3,000. Despite short-term implied volatility reaching 63%, fundamental data is positive, with Layer 2 weekly trading volume surging to 128 million transactions and network fees rising by 19%. Furthermore, looking at the derivatives market, the put/call ratio for Ethereum options has become neutral after a brief period of risk aversion, indicating a recovery in confidence among professional traders. Cointelegraph analysis suggests that on-chain indicators point to a potential rebound to $3,300.

In the altcoin market, the dumping of over 36 million 1INCH coins by three major investor wallets caused the price to plummet by 20%, exposing the widespread liquidity vulnerability in the altcoin market. Analyst Yu Jin pointed out that although 1INCH has a circulating market capitalization of $180 million, its liquidity is extremely poor, with its actual daily trading volume on Binance being only about $340,000.

Meanwhile, some of the speculative enthusiasm of retail investors has shifted to commodities, with silver ETFs seeing record inflows. VandaTrack analysts pointed out that silver has become a new favorite among retail investors, with its trading activity even surpassing that of Nvidia . Tom Sosnoff, founder of the US financial platform LossDog, described the surge in silver as a "meme stock" style of frenzied trading.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on January 28)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

Bitcoin: $8,906 (year-to-date +1.82%), daily spot trading volume $50.36 billion.
Ethereum: $3,001 (year-to-date +1.02%), daily spot trading volume $30.47 billion.
Fear of Greed Index: 29 (Panic)
Average GAS: BTC: 1.75 sat/vB, ETH: 0.02 Gwei
Market share: BTC 59.2%, ETH 11.8%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: SXP, AXS, XRP, BTC, ETH
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 50.22% / 49.78%
Sector Performance: The crypto market saw a slight increase, with only GameFi and DePIN sectors experiencing declines.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 76,134 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $261 million. This included $71.398 million in BTC liquidations, $72.508 million in ETH liquidations, and $22.88 million in HYPE liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of January 27)

Bitcoin ETF: -$147 million
Ethereum ETF: -$63,533,400
XRP ETF: +9.16 million USD
SOL ETF: +$1.87 million

4. Today's Outlook

Binance Alpha will list Moonbirds (BIRB).
Binance will list Zama (ZAMA), the fifth Prime Sale Pre-TGE project.
Google will remove unregistered overseas cryptocurrency exchange apps from its South Korean app store starting January 28.
The U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee will consider the Crypto Market Structure Act on January 29.
Microsoft, Tesla, Meta, and IBM will release their earnings reports after market close on January 28.
US Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Lower Limit): Expected 3.5%, Previous Value 3.5% (January 29, 03:00)
US Federal Reserve FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Upper Limit): Expected 3.75%, Previous Value 3.75% (January 29, 03:00)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Pippin up 58.6%, Hyperliquid up 22.5%, Quant up 8.4%, Jupiter up 7.4%, and Pudgy Penguins up 6.6%.