Source: Talking about Li and other things
Yesterday (June 22, Beijing time), as US President Trump announced the completion of the airstrike on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the situation in the Middle East further intensified. The "fire" of some national leaders also caused the crypto market to fall. Bitcoin fell to around US$98,000 and Ethereum fell to around US$2,100.
While the leaders were playing with "fire", they also burned a lot of people's positions. According to on-chain data statistics, in the past 24 hours alone, the total liquidation funds of the entire network exceeded US$640 million, of which long positions were as high as US$512 million, as shown in the figure below.
Geopolitics has once again become a catalyst for deleveraging. Although we have known since childhood that playing with "fire" is wrong, we cannot control how the people above want to play, nor can we get first-hand inside information. Therefore, the only thing we can do is to hope for world peace in our hearts, manage our positions well and find suitable trading opportunities in this complex "game" of geopolitical games + market structure changes + macroeconomic expectations.
Regarding the changes in market structure, I remember that in a previous article (March 13), we specifically discussed the differences between Bitcoin and the altcoin season in this cycle. In short, in this cycle, we have been following the existing historical cycle rules while constantly witnessing some new differences or new history.
For some time, due to some changes in macro factors, the structure of Bitcoin seems to be decoupled from the structure of altcoins. Therefore, our investment strategy should also be divided into two independent plans. That is, the investment plan for Bitcoin and the investment plan for altcoins should no longer be confused.
1) For Bitcoin
Unless you like to do scalping, our advice is always to make long-term plans. Here is the simplest strategy:
For example, according to the two indicators EMA21 and EMA55, when EMA21 crosses EMA55 from below, it can be regarded as a bullish signal (bull market confirmation), and when the Bitcoin price touches above EMA21, it is a good stage entry point. As shown in the figure below.
Judging from the current trend, if Bitcoin has the opportunity to pull back to around $94,000-96,000, it will still be a good periodic buying accumulation range. At the same time, as long as the price of Bitcoin can continue to maintain above $84,000 (above EMA55), the bull market structure of Bitcoin can still be regarded as a valid range.
2) For altcoins
In the previous article (March 13), we also redefined the alt season as a mini alt season, that is, it seems that we can hardly see the alt season in the traditional sense. Starting from this cycle, the so-called alt season seems to have been replaced by the rapid rise and fall of the alt seasons of the periodic MemeCoin Season, Trump Season, AI Season, etc., unless there is a fundamental change in liquidity, that is, a large amount of liquidity (new money) flows into the crypto market again to support the logic that all altcoins can soar together.
Therefore, in the face of copycat strategies, we need to make a new subdivision, such as:
As for the top large-cap altcoins, although these currencies may no longer satisfy people's fantasies of tenfold or even a hundredfold increase, such altcoins will still have the opportunity to continue to get better with the development of the encryption field. Moreover, in the medium and short term, if Bitcoin's dominance can be reversed, then the probability of such tokens rebounding will be relatively large.
As for how to find the top altcoins, this is actually very simple. In addition to the well-known currencies such as ETH, SOL, and BNB, you can also directly use data platforms such as coinmarketcap or coingecko to find them through the Categories column in the platform, that is, to find the top-ranked large-cap currencies under each sub-segment (track) (also pay attention to the token economics of the corresponding project, such as allocation and unlocking issues), such as TAO under the AI category, HYPE under the DeFi category, DOGE under the Meme category, etc. As shown in the figure below.
As for opportunity discovery for small-cap altcoins or various local dog projects on the chain (high returns or quick return to zero), we have already listed a lot of methods and tools in last year’s (2024) e-book "Blockchain Methodology". Those who are interested can look back at the e-book (historical articles). We will not discuss it in detail here.
To sum up, in addition to investing in Bitcoin, if you want to be safe in altcoins, you only need to focus on exploring projects with strong fundamentals, such as projects that can generate continuous income, projects with good token economics, projects that can be continuously built and have development vision... The easiest way is to directly choose from the top 100 projects by market value (if you have a lower risk appetite, you can also only focus on the top 30 projects by market value).
In addition, with the advancement of the stablecoin bill in the United States and the impressive stock price performance of Circle after its listing on the New York Stock Exchange (many crypto companies have already announced IPO plans)... some friends are also in a new dilemma: Has the long-awaited altcoin season just come to the stock market? I have been playing with Web3 for a long time, but is the real Web3 actually in the stock market next door? Since many people in the cryptocurrency circle missed this opportunity before, I found that some friends have recently started to move to the stock market. As for whether to play the stock market at the same time, it is still based on personal considerations.
After clarifying the investment direction for Bitcoin and altcoins, the next thing we need to do is to customize specific trading strategies, and the core of the trading strategy is position management.
What is position management?
Position management refers to a strategy that can reasonably allocate the proportion of capital investment in trading or investment to achieve risk control, protect principal, and increase returns. In plain words, you need to clarify your capital plan, including how many parts your investment will be divided into, how much money you will invest in each transaction, and what is the maximum loss you can bear... so as to avoid one or several mistakes that lead to a margin call or major losses.
Specifically in terms of fund allocation, this may also be divided into several situations, such as:
If your investment areas are broad, and you plan to cover cryptocurrencies, US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, gold, etc., then you may need to allocate different proportions of funds to different areas, and then further subdivide each area. However, our advice in this regard has always been not to be too scattered. It is best to continue to focus and go deep in 1-2 areas, unless your personal capital volume and time and energy are sufficient to cover more areas.
If you only focus on the crypto market, you only need to do segmentation according to your personal goals and risk preferences. Here we only discuss the crypto market. For a simple example (relatively low risk), take spot trading as an example. You can divide the funds into 10 equal parts, according to the ratio of 6:2:2, of which 60% is used for long-term fixed investment in Bitcoin, 20% is used for medium- and short-term trading plans of altcoins, and 20% is USDC or USDT (to maintain necessary liquidity funds); except for Bitcoin as a long-term plan, do not get too deep into any altcoin (unless you are extremely optimistic about the future of the corresponding altcoin, otherwise just trade it, instead of holding it all the time), and it is best to control the number of currencies held at the same time to less than 10. This can be summarized as: always keep the position stable and simple, so that you can retreat to defend and advance to attack.
After the plan has completed the allocation of funds, the next step is to execute specific transactions (buy and sell) operations based on the goals.
Simply speaking, as long as you can maintain enough patience, the probability of losing money is actually relatively low. As we mentioned in the article a few days ago (June 18): If you still haven't made money in the past 600 days of the bull market cycle, or you have made money but lost it, then you should think carefully and optimize your next trading strategy. Don't try to predict the so-called precise top in the bull market. The most important thing during the bull market is to grasp the right time to take profits in batches, rather than always thinking about selling perfectly at the top. If you are firmly optimistic about the long-term narrative of Bitcoin, then as long as you expand your investment cycle a little bit and don't mess around, the probability of losing money seems to be relatively low.
As for altcoins, large-cap coins are relatively better, and many small-cap coins seem to be no different from gambling (betting on size). I found that many people have a phenomenon, that is: when they don't buy altcoins, they keep rising, and as soon as they buy altcoins, they will be trapped. How can we avoid this situation as much as possible?
First, based on emotions, if you buy too "late", you may be trapped.
Because for most people (mainly ordinary retail investors), apart from reading news or updates, it is basically difficult for them to calm down and invest more time and energy in in-depth learning or research. Only when the price of one or some coins goes up, they will pay attention to it (or they will know when it is pushed to them). At this time, the relative risk is actually relatively high, because high prices mean that those who have ambushed at low levels in advance may be selling, and if you choose to chase high hot spots at this time just because of FOMO, it will increase your chances of being trapped.
Secondly, based on the cycle, if you buy too "early" you may be trapped.
If you have just entered this field or you are still short, would you choose to buy altcoins right now? If you buy now, especially those small-cap altcoins, your investment portfolio is likely to fall into a loss in the next few months, because most altcoins are still in a downward trend relative to Bitcoin at this stage, and it seems that the conditions for a new round of altcoin season are not yet met.
Therefore, we need to combine the perspective of the cycle to try to avoid the problem of buying too early, and this perspective can be divided into several situations:
For example, based on the perspective of the big cycle (bull-bear cycle). That is, the so-called 4-5 year bull-bear cycle, the best strategy is definitely to buy some projects with good fundamentals and continuous ecological construction in the bear market, and then wait patiently for the bull market to sell them. Judging from the overall market trend, we have not yet reached the theoretical bear market stage. If you want to operate based on the big cycle, you can continue to wait patiently until the new round of bear market comes (if the existing cycle rules are not broken, it may be the end of 2026 or 2027) before considering it.
For another example, from the perspective of the small cycle (phase cycle) level. In the past year or so, we have actually experienced three mini-alt seasons. The first was in the first quarter of 2024 (with the rise of Bitcoin, altcoins showed a significant rise, but then plummeted). The second was in November 2024 (with Trump's victory in the US presidential election, stimulating the expected benefits of crypto-friendly policies, altcoins showed a significant increase again, but callbacks could occur at any time). The third was around May 2025 (with Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 again, some altcoins rose sharply, but then continued to fall back). As for when the fourth opportunity will appear again, we cannot accurately predict (perhaps in August or September this year), but you can consider it in combination with relevant indicators such as BTC.D and Altseason index. Here, take BTC.D as an example. At present, the indicator is close to the relative peak range of 66%. If you can see a clear downward signal in the chart next, it can be regarded as a buy signal for altcoins. As shown in the figure below.
Of course, the above discussion is only based on thinking. We will not provide specific trading guidance here, nor can we tell you which altcoin will rise next. The specific suggestions we can give based on the trading level are still: only buy projects that you can understand, control the investment ratio of your positions, and do not be emotional when trading altcoins. Whether your investment cycle is a few weeks or a few months, try to ensure that you can make a profit (at least part of the profit) in time during the bull market. Don't get too deep or take too much risk in the altcoin business, stay active but don't chase. If you still don't know what you should do, then BTC is still your safest investment path choice.
The happiness of many people is often built on the pain of others. Similarly, the gains of many people are often built on the losses of others. If you succeed, don't fall into pride and complacency. If you fail, you need to seriously sum up your experience and lessons.
In any field, there will be people who are optimistic while others are pessimistic. If you continue to be optimistic about the crypto field, then just keep paying attention and discover opportunities. Whether it is stocks or cryptocurrencies, any field with financial attributes will have volatility opportunities, and where there are volatility opportunities, markets will be formed. Where there are markets, there will be trading opportunities. Trading requires strategies, but strategies vary from person to person. Some people may express different opinions, such as heavy positions to create miracles, never stop loss or take profit... But in fact, various theories or methodologies should be based on their own perspectives to be useful. Keep an open attitude to learn from others, build your own trading system, plan your own transactions, and trade your own plans.
That’s all for today. The sources of the images/data cited in the text have been added to Notion. The above content is only personal opinion and analysis, and is only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.
