How will the next wave of AI Agents emerge? Here are some of my thoughts:
1) The continued mischief of celebrity coins and various MEME coins will not bring a big wealth feast, but will only drain the remaining liquidity in the market and overdraw the progress and expectations of the bull market. Because everyone expects the presidential coin to be a "certain opportunity" and focuses on the endorsement effect of its president's reputation and real-world influence, but the logic is obviously not valid, and Trump has set a good example.
This type of coin cannot escape the zero-sum game, and the result will only allow a small number of people to make money, while most retail investors are more likely to lose money and leave the market, which will aggravate the primary and secondary structural collapse of the market, and change the previous equilibrium state dominated by VC-driven Builders into a pure pump-issued coin-creating bubble model. After the mess, a long period of post-disaster reconstruction will be required.
2) The first wave of AI Agent is the AI MEME craze represented by $GOAT and $ACT; the second wave is the AI Infra evolution narrative represented by #ai16z and #Virtual, which saw the emergence of a series of value segments such as single AI applications, framework standards, chainization, DeFai, etc.; for the third wave, I tend to take the lead in breaking through a certain segment of AI infra, and will take the high-threshold value creation path driven by VC+community.
Because, although ai16z brought a wave of market heat with open source community innovation as the cultural axis, it turns out that this wave of AI Agent craze has not lost its MEME nature. A large number of wild web2 Dev and web3 hardcore speculative projects have taken over the main field, resulting in a large number of AI MEME projects with "value cloak" emerging in the market in the short term. Therefore, when $TRUMP, a simpler and more popular presidential coin MEME, appeared, the AI Infra market was quickly beaten back to its original form;
3) Why is it dual-driven by VC+community? Pure VC coin drive will lose the early advantage of community-based MEME issuance, which is obviously not acceptable. Pure MEME coin drive will be quickly turned into a mess by the conspiracy group behind it, which will be even worse.
Only when VCs intervene early to provide project parties with basic expectations for Build innovation, reduce Dev’s financing needs in the MEME issuance stage, and at the same time increase the threshold for the conspiracy group behind it to pass quickly, can we finally develop a healthy balance model of on-chain asset issuance and project empowerment.
It is still difficult to give an answer to how to strike such a balance and in what form similar projects will emerge. However, it is highly likely that DeFi+AI (DeFai) will be a potential breakthrough segment.
Because AI Agent's autonomous custody and control of assets can solve the artificial ruggedness of traditional DeFi, and AI Agent's autonomous trading decisions will concentrate on demonstrating the application capabilities of AI Agent. The most important thing is that AI Agent only takes over the new front end of DeFi, and the back-end DeFi infrastructure and chain abstraction and other infrastructure are already perfect enough to quickly test the value of AI Agent combined with Crypto scenarios.
Finally, although the AI Agent track has fallen into a short-term downturn, after a thorough reshuffle, some projects with excellent Dev, mature product PMF development paths, and reasonable community asset incentive distribution plans will be reborn.
Of course, these are all track development trends conceived based on the sustainability of intrinsic value, because only in this way, in the process of market technological innovation and evolution, can there be the expected bull market, and most people can seize their respective opportunities.
Once the market deviates from the core of value creation, the concept of "bull market" will probably no longer exist, because the short-term prosperity of pure gambling speculation has nothing to do with bull and bear markets.
