Today's top news highlights:

1. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Middle East Turmoil Continues, Non-Farm Payrolls Report Set to Be a Spectacular Result

2. Canada plans to ban cryptocurrency political donations; the relevant bill has entered its first reading.

3. Kalshi faces another lawsuit in Washington state, predicting an escalation of market regulatory scrutiny.

4. World Foundation discloses over-the-counter trading information: $65 million worth of WLD were sold in the past week, with some locked up for 6 months.

5. Glassnode: Bitcoin is currently at the lower end of the cost range for new investors, and the strength of its accumulated holdings is still insufficient.

6. The Trump team is suspected of dumping over $16.06 million worth of Trump tokens.

Regulation & Macro

Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Middle East Turmoil Continues, Non-Farm Payrolls Set to Be a Spectacular Result

The past week was another dominated by the Middle East situation. The immense uncertainty surrounding whether the US, Israel, and Iran can reach an agreement kept markets on edge, forcing investors to closely monitor every statement from US President Trump. Currently, the market's focus is on whether major central banks will pull the trigger on interest rate hikes in April due to soaring energy prices caused by the Middle East conflict. Although the market is pricing in a very high probability of a rate hike, it may be too early to draw conclusions. Here are the key points the market will be focusing on in the coming week:

At 22:30 on Monday, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for March will be released.

At 4:00 AM on Tuesday, New York Federal Reserve President Williams will deliver a speech;

At 22:00 on Tuesday, the US February JOLTs Job Openings and the US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index will be released.

Wednesday, 20:15, US March ADP employment figures;

At 21:05 on Wednesday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Musaleem will speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

At 21:45 on Wednesday, the final reading of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March will be released.

At 23:00 on Wednesday, Dallas Fed President Logan, a 2026 FOMC voting member, will deliver a speech.

Thursday, 7:30 PM: US Challenger job cuts for March;

At 20:30 on Thursday, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 and the US trade balance for February will be released.

Finance ministers from the G7 countries met on Thursday.

At 20:30 on Friday, the following data will be released: US March unemployment rate, US March seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US March average hourly earnings year-on-year rate, and US March average hourly earnings month-on-month rate.

At 21:45 on Friday, the final reading of the US S&P Global Services PMI for March will be released.

On the data front, the main focus will be on the US non-farm payrolls figures. Most Federal Reserve policymakers continue to downplay the risks facing the labor market while emphasizing inflation risks. The market has now accepted the Fed's hawkish stance.

Vance wins Conservative Political Action Conference 2028 presidential indicative vote

According to Jinshi News, a preliminary poll shows that US Vice President Vance has become the top choice for the Republican presidential nominee at this year's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). Of the more than 1,600 attendees who participated, approximately 53% chose Vance, with Secretary of State Rubio coming in second with 35% of the vote. CPAC is an important annual gathering of Republican lawmakers, activists, and presidential candidates. This year's CPAC was held in Grapwayne, Texas, and attendees were primarily from the Republican conservative camp. While the conference's annual preliminary poll is not a reliable predictor of the final candidate, this vote reflects the current support inclinations of core supporters of Trump's "Make America Great Again (MAGA)" campaign.

Canada plans to ban cryptocurrency political donations; the relevant bill has entered its first reading.

According to CoinDesk, although Canada has allowed crypto donations since 2019, they were virtually non-existent in the 2021 and 2025 federal elections. Regulators believe that the "pseudo-anonymity" of crypto assets and the difficulty in tracing funds pose a potential risk to election transparency, thus moving towards a complete ban. It is reported that the Canadian government introduced the Strong and Free Elections Act (Bill C-25) on March 26, proposing a complete ban on the use of crypto assets such as Bitcoin for political donations, classifying them, along with money orders and prepaid payment instruments, as "difficult-to-trace" forms of funds. This ban covers registered political parties, candidates, campaign teams, and third-party campaign advertising entities, meaning that crypto assets will be completely excluded from the federal election financing system. This move follows the UK's recent temporary ban on crypto political donations, clearly indicating a trend towards stricter regulation.

According to the bill, any crypto donations received in violation of regulations must be returned or disposed of and turned over to the national treasury within 30 days. The maximum fine can be twice the amount of the violation, plus an additional penalty of up to $100,000. The bill is currently in its first reading in Parliament.

Hunan police cracked a new type of investment fraud involving virtual currency and "cash-on-delivery" schemes, seizing 310 grams of gold.

According to the official WeChat account of Tianjin Binhai Public Security Bureau, police in Chenzhou, Hunan Province, cracked a new type of investment fraud case involving virtual currency and a "two-gold-for-cash" scheme. They intercepted seven packages containing gold and seized 310 grams of gold. Police investigations revealed that the intercepted packages were used by criminals to lure victims into purchasing gold offline under the guise of investment and financial management, which the victims then had to ship to a designated address themselves. The stolen money was then transferred multiple times through virtual currency exchanges and overseas account transfers. Police warn that the "two-gold-for-cash" scheme has become a new type of investment fraud. The "two golds" refer to gold and cash, and it is a new trap set by fraudsters. The stolen gold is currently being gradually returned to the victims, and the case is under further investigation.

Kalshi faces another lawsuit in Washington state, predicting an escalation of market regulatory storm.

Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown has filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, accusing it of violating state gambling and consumer protection laws by offering betting services on events such as sports, elections, and war. The lawsuit, filed in King County Superior Court, seeks to prohibit Kalshi from operating in the area, recover lost funds from residents, and impose civil penalties. This is yet another regulatory action the company has faced recently, bringing it to the point of being involved in more than 20 civil lawsuits. Previously, Arizona prosecutors filed criminal charges against the company, considered the first criminal case against a prediction market.

The lawsuit alleges that Kalshi's advertisements suggested users could bypass local laws to participate in NFL betting, demonstrating its "knowing violation." However, Kalshi responded that it is a federally regulated and compliant trading platform, denies offering a war-related market, and expresses confidence in winning the legal battle.

It's worth noting that Kalshi entered the sports betting industry in 2025 and currently offers products such as handicap betting, over/under betting, and item betting, which has been criticized as being no different from traditional betting businesses. Furthermore, its platform also covers predictions of public events (such as disease case numbers and political figures' statements), further drawing regulatory attention.

At the industry level, prediction markets have also come under scrutiny due to high-stakes betting incidents involving platforms like Polymarket. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress is pushing forward legislation to restrict prediction market platforms from engaging in sports betting.

Project Updates

Bored Ape #5278's listing price has fallen by more than 100 ETH since its last transaction, indicating that the overall NFT market remains weak.

According to CoinDesk, despite numerous digital art projects showcasing themselves at Art Basel Hong Kong, the NFT market as a whole remains weak, showing no clear signs of recovery. Specifically, Bored Ape #5278 from the "Bored Ape" series is currently listed at only 7 ETH, a drop of over 100 ETH from its last transaction price, reflecting a significant pullback in the valuation of leading NFT assets. As an asset class once considered to be rapidly rising, the NFT art market has cooled considerably, with both liquidity and price performance continuing to be under pressure.

The World Foundation disclosed over-the-counter trading information: $65 million worth of WLD were sold in the past week, with some locked up for six months.

The World Foundation announced on the X platform that its subsidiary, World Assets, has completed multiple over-the-counter (OTC) transactions in the past week, selling a total of approximately $65 million worth of WLD tokens. These transactions involved four counterparties. The first transaction was settled on March 20, 2026, and the funds will be used to support the project's core operations, R&D, Orb device manufacturing, and ecosystem development. The remaining settlement transactions will be executed through designated multi-signature addresses. The average price of the sale was approximately $0.2719, with approximately $25 million worth of tokens subject to a 6-month lock-up period.

The Sui mainnet has been upgraded to V1.68.1, the protocol has been upgraded to version 118, and address aliases have been enabled.

Sui officially announced that the mainnet has been upgraded to V1.68.1 and the protocol has been upgraded to version 118. The main contents of this upgrade include enabling address aliases on the mainnet, enhancing the metadata security in the Sui System, and fixing the issue that could cause full nodes to crash when simulating abnormal transactions containing invalid fund withdrawals.

Coinbase faced strong user backlash for pushing prediction markets; the CEO claimed it was a bug and apologized.

Coinbase has sparked outrage by bombarding users with notifications for its March Madness basketball prediction market, with users accusing it of indirectly encouraging gambling. The prediction market feature, launched in January in partnership with Kalshi, has been criticized for excessive notifications, raising concerns about trust within the industry.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong responded that the push notification issue was a vulnerability, and that they have begun fixing it and apologized to users. Meanwhile, the US prediction market is facing state-level regulatory lawsuits and federal jurisdictional disputes, and Congress is also pushing forward related legislation and potential trading bans by lawmakers.

Opinions & Analysis

Analysts: Structural advantages for gold remain; bargain hunters emerge after sharp price drops.

According to Bloomberg, bargain hunters began entering the gold market after the largest sell-off in years. By Thursday's close, gold prices had fallen 19% from their January closing peak, nearing the traditional 20% threshold that marks the start of a bear market. However, on Friday, buyers re-entered the market, pushing prices up by about 3%.

George Efstathopoulos, a fund manager at Fidelity International, stated that this pullback presents a buying opportunity once tensions in the Middle East subside. Inflation risks, fiscal pressures, and bond creditworthiness issues remain structurally positive factors for gold. Analysts also point out that a war with Iran could trigger central bank gold sales, or at least slow the pace of purchases. Daniel Galli, a commodities strategist at TD Securities, believes that given central banks have been cornerstone buyers in this bull market, large-scale direct sales would have a more direct impact on prices and a more damaging effect on market sentiment. However, for now, the broader trend is likely a gradual slowdown in the pace of central bank gold purchases, rather than a complete shift to selling.

Michael Saylor posted, "It's time to put my laser eyes back on," seemingly expressing optimism about the future of Bitcoin.

Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin treasury Strategy, posted on social media, "It's time to put the laser eyes back on," sending a clear bullish signal. The "laser eyes" were a symbolic representation of the crypto community's support for Bitcoin during bull markets, and this statement seems to express optimism about Bitcoin's future.

Peter Schiff: Crypto mortgages could significantly increase home purchase costs and amplify default risks.

Economist Peter Schiff wrote on the X platform that cryptocurrency-backed mortgage structures could significantly increase the cost of homeownership. Borrowers would not only have to pay traditional mortgage interest but also interest on a "second mortgage" secured by cryptocurrency. This model essentially amounts to 100% financing of the property, thereby amplifying leverage and potentially increasing overall default risk.

Previously, it was reported that Coinbase had launched its first compliant crypto-backed mortgage product, allowing users to use their Bitcoin or USDC in their Coinbase accounts as collateral to pay for a down payment on a home.

Glassnode: Bitcoin is currently at the lower end of the cost range for new investors, and the strength of its accumulation of shares is still insufficient.

On-chain data platform Glassnode published an article on its X platform stating that the current Bitcoin price is at the lower end of the funding cost range for new investors ($60,000–70,000). Data shows that while there has been some accumulation of Bitcoin within this range, the overall scale is still lower than the typical levels that historically drove strong rallies, indicating relatively weak accumulation density.

Glassnode points out that while the current accumulation structure is constructive in form, its strength is still insufficient, and the market has not yet formed a clear upward momentum signal.

Coin Center: If the Claritism Act stalls, the US may suppress the crypto industry without clear rules in the future.

Coin Center Executive Director Peter Van Valkenburgh warned that if the Crypto Markets Structure Act (CLARITY) fails to pass, a future US government that is unfriendly to the industry may suppress the crypto sector without clear rules. He stated that the significance of legislation lies in constraining the next administration, and the lack of legal protection will expose the industry to the risks of prosecutorial discretion and political dictates.

The CLARITY bill has stalled in the Senate as banks, crypto companies, and lawmakers failed to reach an agreement on key terms such as stablecoin yields. Van Valkenburgh points out that if the current legislative window is missed, the Department of Justice may increase prosecutions against privacy tool developers, and existing regulatory guidelines may be withdrawn.

Important data

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 10 consecutive days, currently at -0.0857%.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in a negative premium state for 10 consecutive days, currently at -0.0857%. The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index measures the difference between the price of Bitcoin on Coinbase (a major US trading platform) and the average price in the global market. A negative premium usually reflects significant selling pressure in the US market, decreased investor risk appetite, increased market risk aversion, or capital outflow.

The Trump team appears to have dumped over $16.06 million worth of Trump tokens.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, the TruMP team appears to have dumped over $16.06 million worth of TruMP tokens. In the past two hours, the Bitgo custodian address deposited 5.48 million TruMP tokens into OKX. Tracing the source of the funds upstream, it was found that the TruMP Team Allocation address (i.e., team shares) deposited a total of 18.14 million tokens two months ago, which was worth $81.64 million at the time.

Spot gold breaks through $4,500 for the first time

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