🧾 Market structure at a glance
Trump proposed to impose high tariffs on all fronts, even on some small island countries, in an attempt to prevent trade routes that "circumvent tariffs"
Traditional financial markets were hit hard, and the gains accumulated over the years evaporated in an instant
The cryptocurrency market is relatively stable, and some currencies have even recorded gains
This scene seems to reproduce the situation on the eve of the bull market in 2021.
📉 Expectations of interest rate cuts will be a key driver
It is no longer speculation that the Federal Reserve intends to cut interest rates to ease the pressure of refinancing government debt. Trump himself posted a video on his social platform Truth, expressing his support for a low interest rate policy.
Historical experience tells us:
When interest rates go down, liquidity is released and the economy becomes active
Residents will seek out channels for hedging and value-added with their "extra money"
Crypto assets are the natural destination for this kind of funds
The extremely low interest rates (below 1%) during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic were an important catalyst for the bull market in the crypto market.
🧨 What happens if things get worse?
Currently, many countries are taking countermeasures against the US tariff policy. If this trade war continues to escalate:
Traditional assets will continue to be under pressure
Investors will seek asset allocation paths independent of sovereign policies
Crypto assets will become more attractive as a “decentralized safe haven”
🔗 Crypto market decouples from traditional finance
In the past few years, crypto assets have been highly correlated with traditional assets. However, this time the market performance shows important changes:
US stocks plunge, crypto market remains stable
The market is beginning to realize that encryption is not an appendage of traditional finance, but an independent financial system
This could be a turning point for crypto assets to embark on an independent valuation path.
✅ Conclusion:
Crypto bull market may quietly start in autumn
In the short term, due to policy disturbances and global economic turmoil, the market may remain sluggish throughout the summer. But from a long-term perspective:
The three major factors of interest rate cut expectations, risk aversion demand, and institutional decoupling have gradually taken shape
The more unstable traditional finance is, the more opportunities there are for crypto markets to receive capital inflows.
Therefore, we can reasonably expect that the real crypto bull market will begin to brew in the fall of 2024 and enter a new cycle peak.
