PANews reported on November 27th that Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that Bitcoin stabilized after a slight rebound. This recovery appears to be related to improved risk sentiment rather than specific crypto-related drivers. Meanwhile, the stock market rose slightly, and the market currently estimates an 85% probability of an interest rate cut in December. Inflation remains stubbornly high, and labor market data continues to be weak, including rising unemployment. The balance in statements from Federal Reserve officials has tilted slightly towards easing. Given the limited number of other important economic data releases this week, market attention will turn to the jobless claims and ADP employment report to be released later this week.
The widening of AI-related credit default swaps (CDS) and tech credit spreads indicates that investors are reassessing this dominant macroeconomic driver. Crypto ETFs continue to see net outflows, and several digital asset products have been liquidated. Most products are currently trading below $1 per unit of net asset value, reflecting heightened risk aversion in the market. Strategy's situation has resurfaced as its Bitcoin reserves near breakeven and its stock is placed on MSCI's delisting watch list.
As the year draws to a close, Bitcoin faces the dual impact of negative funding flows and a supportive options structure. Correlation with AI-related stocks has increased, while the Fear & Greed Index has declined. Demand for downside protection remains high, and although open interest still leans towards call options, both position size and implied volatility have decreased. A rebound in Bitcoin prices to around $95,000 could encounter ETF-related selling pressure, reinforcing its range-bound trading pattern. Following the recent sharp decline, the $80,000 to $82,000 range remains a key support level. The crypto market continues to serve as a barometer of overall market risk appetite, with macroeconomic drivers still firmly controlling market direction.
