Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Market sentiment regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December is fluctuating wildly. Initially, due to slowing inflation and weak labor data, the market widely expected a rate cut, but subsequent hawkish statements from Fed officials significantly cooled this expectation, with the probability of a rate cut briefly falling below 30%. However, dovish signals from New York Fed President Williams on Friday brought the probability of a rate cut back above 70%. Currently, five of the 12 voting members favor maintaining the current interest rate, creating a close race and making the December rate decision highly uncertain.

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, points out that the current liquidity crunch has impacted multiple asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, credit, and bank stocks. Their weakness is sending signals similar to those of December 2018, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing. Looking back at 2025, the 316 interest rate cuts by central banks globally fueled a liquidity boom, directly driving the AI investment frenzy and cryptocurrency speculation. Looking ahead to 2026, Hartnett predicts the Federal Reserve will stage a "policy capitulation," forced to begin a rate-cutting cycle. At that time, long-term zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin (a "canary in the coal mine"), and mid-cap stocks sensitive to financing costs will be the main beneficiaries.

In the Bitcoin market, sentiment is a mix of panic and speculation. Prices recently fell to a six-month low of $80,500 on Friday, confirming a "death cross" technical pattern. Analyst Mister Crypto pointed out that historically, "death crosses" have led to declines of 64%, 67%, and 71% in January 2022, March 2018, and September 2014, respectively. If prices fail to quickly recover to the cost base, it could confirm a deeper bear market trend, with Bitcoin prices expected to fall further to a low of $74,500. Analyst Rekt Capital also believes that Bitcoin's macro uptrend has been broken, with the current weekly closing price above $86,000, and the next target will be to challenge the $93,000 resistance level. Banmu Xia stated that $80,500 may already be a significant low point in this bear market; however, this does not mean the bear market is over. The bear market has already lasted for more than three months and is expected to continue for another three to four months. Despite market pessimism, Bitcoin rebounded strongly by nearly 10% to $88,000 over the weekend. Analysts such as CryptoMichNL and Crypto Auris believe the price may first retrace to fill the CME gap at $85,200 before challenging the $90,000 to $96,000 range. Aegon identifies key resistance levels at $88,400, $93,600, and $99,420. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley revealed he has been increasing his Bitcoin holdings at the $85,000 level.

The Ethereum market also experienced significant volatility, with its price plunging 15% to a four-month low of $2,625, leading to the liquidation of $460 million in leveraged long positions. Spot ETFs also saw net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling $1.33 billion. However, data from the derivatives market offered a glimmer of optimism. Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that despite the price decline, funding rates for ETH perpetual futures stabilized, and large traders on the OKX platform were even increasing their long positions, suggesting the market may be brewing a rebound towards $3,200. Analyst Man of Bitcoin believes ETH's price target is $2,889, while Ted stated that if it can successfully recover the $2,800-$2,900 range, it could potentially move towards $3,300-$3,400. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan emphasized that the market has overlooked the upcoming Fusaka upgrade in December, which he believes is an undervalued catalyst that will significantly enhance Ethereum's value capture capabilities and could lead the next rally. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua also announced that he has fully invested in ETH at around $2,700 and has made it the core holding in his major public blockchain sector.

The controversy surrounding Strategy ( MSTR) intensified over the weekend, with a backlash from the crypto community following a research report by JPMorgan Chase regarding MSTR's potential removal from the MSCI index. Meanwhile, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee analyzed that institutional investors are hedging their risk by shorting Strategy (MSTR) stock, which holds 650,000 Bitcoins, due to a lack of liquidity in on-chain derivatives. Analyst RamenPanda stated that MSTR's potential removal from the MSCI index on January 15, 2026, due to its Bitcoin asset ratio exceeding 77%, could trigger a forced sell-off of $8-9 billion, further exacerbating liquidity and stock price pressures. Currently, MSTR's stock price has fallen 64% from its peak, making its "stock issuance to buy crypto" model unsustainable. Furthermore, MSCI's new rules (removing companies with digital assets exceeding 50% from major indices) also have a potential impact on other Bitcoin reserve companies.

In terms of project updates, the decentralized AI data network Port3 Network was hacked due to a bridging vulnerability, resulting in the issuance and on-chain dumping of 1 billion tokens, causing a sharp drop in the price of its token PORT3. Binance announced the delisting of PORT3 perpetual contracts, and Bybit also suspended related trading; its market capitalization is currently listed as zero. Meanwhile, the pump.fun project team is accused of cashing out approximately $400 million in the past week, causing its token PUMP to fall below its initial offering price and drop by nearly 30% in the past week. On Friday, Coinbase announced the acquisition of the Solana on-chain trading platform Vector.fun . The price of the Vector-related Tensor (TNSR), which rose from $0.0418 to a high of $0.365 on November 19th, has now fallen back to $0.1485, with the 24-hour increase narrowing to 67%. Furthermore, the highly anticipated Monad token sale on Coinbase has ended, and tokens will be distributed today and listed for trading on Solana.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on November 24)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $86,934 (down 7.03% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $51.05 billion.

• Ethereum: $2,839 (year-to-date -14.88%), daily spot trading volume $21.71 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)

• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 11.5%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, TRUST, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 49.31% / 50.69%

• Sector Performance: The NFT sector rose 1.1%, and the Meme sector rose 1.09%.

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 98,323 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $185 million. This included $61.27 million in BTC liquidations, $41.14 million in ETH liquidations, and $8.365 million in ZEC liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of November 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of $1.22 billion last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net outflows.

• Ethereum ETF: Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows of $500 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net outflows.

• Solana ETF: The Solana spot ETF saw net inflows of $128 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of net inflows.

4. Today's Outlook

• Monad plans to launch its Layer 1 blockchain mainnet and native token on November 24.

• Binance Alpha will list Sparkle (SSS) on November 24th and Irys (IRYS) on November 25th.

• Bloomberg analysts predict Grayscale's Dogecoin ETF will launch on November 24.

• MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25th, with a total cap of $250 million.

• Starknet v0.14.1 is scheduled to launch on the mainnet on November 25th.

• Plasma (XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on November 25th at 9 PM, representing 0.89% of the total supply and worth approximately $18.1 million.

• WalletConnect Token (WCT) will unlock approximately 10.06 million tokens on November 25th at 8:00 AM, representing 10.07% of the total supply and worth approximately $11.6 million.

The biggest drops among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Starknet down 8.8%, Aerodrome Finance down 7.2%, Dash down 7.1%, Zcash down 6.1%, and MYX Finance down 5.4%.

5. Hot News

• This week's macroeconomic outlook: The probability of a December rate cut has surged to 73%, and Powell's "stand-in" is closely monitoring the Beige Book.

• This Week's Preview | Grayscale Dogecoin ETF and XRP ETF Launched; Singapore Exchange Derivatives Division Launches Bitcoin and Ethereum Perpetual Contracts

• Data shows that tokens such as XPL, WCT, and SAHARA will undergo significant unlocking, with XPL unlocking value estimated at approximately $18.1 million.

• Analysts: An unknown entity is suspected of shorting HYPE through 54 wallets, making a paper profit of $5.34 million.

• The 1inch team withdrew another 7.56 million 1INCH from Binance, worth $1.37 million.

• Port3 launches token migration plan and burns over 160 million tokens.

• The U.S. Department of Efficiency has been dissolved.

• Hackers exploited a PORT3 bridging vulnerability to issue 1 billion new tokens and then dump them, while destroying the remaining 837 million tokens.

• A new wallet, suspected to belong to Bitmine or SharpLink, transferred $60.04 million worth of ETH from FalconX.

• Forward Industries transferred 1.727 million SOL tokens, worth nearly $220 million, to a wallet.

• The founder of Moonrock Capital claims that Coinbase's acquisition of VECTOR involves insider trading; $TNSR surged eightfold in two days before plummeting 40%.