1. Market observation

Keywords: crude oil, ETH, BTC

Affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, global financial markets saw significant fluctuations at the opening of Monday, with spot gold prices jumping to $3,398 per ounce, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.9% and WTI crude oil prices opened 3.7% higher. Despite this, the initial market reaction was relatively restrained, with analysts at Morgan Stanley predicting that if the situation eases quickly, oil prices will fall back to $60 per barrel, but continued tensions could cause oil prices to soar to $130 per barrel. Against this backdrop, the trend of the US dollar has become the focus of the market, although it has been boosted by risk aversion in the short term, while Viraj Patel, a strategist at Vanda Research, believes that as the reasons for being bearish on the dollar gradually disappear, a higher dollar may become the main trade this summer.

Jeffrey Ding, chief analyst at HashKey, said that the global financial market has recently been shaken violently due to the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran and the Federal Reserve's unchanged interest rate. Affected by the geopolitics of the Middle East, the price of gold soared 3.17% from June 11 to June 13, but after the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 18, gold was sold off and fell by about 0.6% as of June 21. At the same time, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, with the price holding steady at $100,000 and fluctuating only between $100,000 and $110,000 in the past 42 days. Jeffrey Ding believes that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment. Its decentralization and limited supply characteristics are becoming more attractive in the global uncertainty, or it may become a new choice for investors when the volatility of traditional safe-haven assets intensifies.

In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after falling below $99,000. According to analyst KillaXBT, there are three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future trend: maintaining the current range and setting a new high; falling below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or re-standing on $100,000 after testing $95,000, and further rising to the $114,000 to $116,000 range. Analyst @VipRoseTr also gave specific resistance levels (104,000, $106,000, $110,000) and support levels (98,000, $95,000). Analyst Crypto Seth pointed out that if Bitcoin falls below $100,000, it may test $95,000 and the bull support band again. He said that a pullback to the bull support band of $95,000 is normal. In the 2017 bull market cycle, Bitcoin had stepped back on the bull support band about 8 times. Meanwhile, analyst Ted Pillows said Bitcoin is approaching the key support of the daily EMA-100 moving average, and if the daily closing price falls below $99,000, it may trigger a further decline to the $92,000 to $94,000 range. In addition, trader James Wynn also predicted that the short-term price target range of Bitcoin is $93,000 to $95,000, and warned that global geopolitical tensions may lead to further price declines. In addition, the failure of the United States to cut interest rates has put pressure on the market, and although the global M2 money supply has increased, this is not driven by the US dollar.

As for Ethereum, analyst Arslan Butt pointed out that Ethereum continued to perform weakly, and the price was constrained by the downward trend line, breaking through the $2,378 mark, which was previously an important support, and showing a bearish technical pattern. He suggested that traders pay attention to its performance at the $2,378 resistance level. If it fails to break through, it may further fall to the demand level of $2,114 or even $2,036.

While mainstream currencies are consolidating, the altcoin market is also relatively flat. A token called $BlackCoin appeared on the Solana chain. Its market story revolves around an AI-generated "darknet coin" that claims to be used in shadow markets and illegal trading networks. The current market value is about $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hotspots is $Oil, which positions itself as "digital oil". Its concept comes from the comment of the well-known economist Peter Schiff that digital oil is easier to create than real oil. The current market value is about $2.9 million. On the Ethereum chain, a fast pass disk $ERC-69 appeared. It was launched through Klik and was inspired by a fictitious proposal created by AI. The market value once climbed to $11 million.

2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on June 23)

(Data sources: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)

• Bitcoin: $101,351 (+8.43% YTD), daily spot volume $47.847 billion

• Ethereum: $2,239.19 (-32.84% YTD), with daily spot volume of $24.261 billion

• Fear and corruption index: 37 (panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB ETH: 0.44 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 64.9%, ETH 8.7%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, LAYER, SOL

• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0825

• Sector gains and losses: SocialFi fell 3.2%; DePIN fell 3.1%

• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 184,598 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$642 million, including BTC liquidation of US$232 million, ETH liquidation of US$188 million, and XRP liquidation of US$21.57 million

• BTC medium- and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($105,463.14), lower channel line ($103,374.76)

• ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper line of the channel ($2462.37), lower line ($2413.61)

*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium- to long-term bullish trend; otherwise, it is a bearish trend. When the price passes through the cost range repeatedly within the range or in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.

3. ETF flows (as of June 20)

• Bitcoin ETF: +6.3658 million USD (9 consecutive days of net inflow)

• Ethereum ETF: -$11,344,400

4. Today’s Outlook

• Binance to Support Zilliqa Network Upgrade and Hard Fork on June 23

• Binance Alpha and Binance Futures to List DeLorean (DMC) on June 24

• SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens at 4:30 pm on June 23, accounting for 22.41% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately US$8.4 million;

• Federal Reserve Board member Bowman delivered a speech on monetary policy and the banking industry. (June 23, 22:00)

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy report testimony to the House Financial Services Committee (June 24, 22:00)

The biggest gainers in the top 500 by market capitalization today: FUN Token (FUN) up 67.51%, Banana For Scale (BANANAS31) up 21.43%, Bubblemaps (BMT) up 13.79%, Keeta (KTA) up 11.06%, and XPR Network (XPR) up 10.83%.

5. Hot News

• Macro Outlook This Week: Trump is looking for trouble everywhere, Powell will "go to the meeting alone"

• Data: BLAST, VENOM, SOON and other tokens will usher in large amounts of unlocking, of which BLAST unlocking value is about 22.5 million US dollars

• This week's preview | Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony; Blast (BLAST) and Venom (VENOM) unlock tokens worth tens of millions of dollars

• Bulla (BULLA) is now available on Binance Alpha. Eligible users can claim 750 BULLA tokens airdrop

• Humanity Protocol (H) to be listed on Binance Alpha and Binance Futures

• Ark sold more than 600,000 shares of Circle stock again on June 20, and made a net profit of about $243 million in the past three sales

• Texas Governor Signs SB 21, Becoming the Third State to Establish a Bitcoin Reserve

• AguilaTrades, a giant whale, once again opened a 20x short position of 1000.82 BTC in the early morning, with a current floating loss of $1.34 million

• Arthur Hayes: The current market weakness is temporary, and Bitcoin's safe-haven status will remain unquestioned

• Abraxas Capital is suspected to have made a profit of $79.92 million by shorting 5 tokens including BTC and ETH

• Wyoming Stablecoin WYST Plans to Go Live on August 20

• Bloomberg analysts: The probability of approval of most spot crypto ETFs has been raised to 90% or higher

This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and the most trusted crypto asset fiat currency portal in Asia. HashKey Exchange is committed to defining new benchmarks for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform security.